NOV. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – South Korea wants to boost further its investments in Uzbekistan, local media reported quoting government officials. South Korea and Uzbekistan have developed close relations over the past few years. There are thousands of ethnic Koreans living in Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Almaty-based Eurasian Development Bank is close to agreeing a deal to lend the Armenian government $300m to help it through the economic malaise enveloping the Central Asia and South Caucasus region.
If it is agreed, the first $100m is due at the end of this year with the outstanding $200m handed over by the end of 2017.
Like other countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Armenia has been trying to deal with the fallout of the drop in oil prices and a recession in Russia which have combined to tip the entire region into an economic depression.
“Current macroeconomic actions have been agreed with the Armenian government,” Dmitry Pankin, the EDB CEO, told the Armenpress news agency.
“The project has been approved by the expert council and is now being considered by the Eurasian Stabilisation and Development Fund. After the official decision, the final conditions will be agreed upon.”
The Eurasian Development Bank is an overtly political organisation. It’s membership mirrors the membership of the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union — Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia — with the addition of Tajikistan.
It was set up before the Eurasian Economic Union to give the trade bloc extra weight.
It also acts as a kind of sweetener. Armenia is reliant on Russia for economic and political support. It joined the Eurasian Economic Union at the start of this year under duress from Russia but can now access cheap loans to keep its economy running.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), an intergovernmental organisation set up to improve transparency in mining and oil sectors, published its first report on Tajikistan which the authors said shone some light on the murky Tajik extractive sector.
Anti-corruption lobby groups have previously criticised the Tajik government for siphoning off cash from its metals sector and while the report was considered a step forward for transparency in Tajikistan, there were still many blank spots.
And the authors of the report made this clear.
“Three of the 14 companies in the EITI Report are partially state owned. Considerable details related to these companies are missing from the report due to the currently weak government systems for recording all company payments,” they wrote in the EITI report.
Tajikistan had been supposed to present its first report to the EITI in February, a deadline it missed.
A presentation on the report will be made in Dushanbe on Nov. 25.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s trade with Russia, its most important partner, has fallen sharply this year compared to the same period in 2014, official data showed. Exports to Russia were down 28% to $158.5m and imports were down over 10% to $712.7m between Jan-Sept. A recession in Russia has hit Central Asia and South Caucasus.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Georgia hit 5.8% for the 12 months to the end of October, the Geostat statistics agency said, the highest rate of price increases since 2011. Geostat said that health care, electricity and various house- hold goods and furnishings had pushed up prices.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The EBRD doubled Azerbaijan’s economic growth predictions to 3% this year, an upgrade that will come as a relief for the the government which has been trying to cope with an economic downturn. It is reliant on oil as its main foreign currency earner. Oil prices have fallen 50% in the past 18 months.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan grew by 5.2% in October, compared to the previous month, after businesses increased their prices on goods and services across the country to balance a devaluation in the value of the tenge currency. The tenge has now lost half its value against the US dollar since Feb. 2014. Year-on- year inflation now stands at 9.4%.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Photographs and anecdotal evidence from Uzbekistan showed that queues for petrol at service stations are growing longer and longer. A collapse in the value of the Uzbek sum has hit the Uzbek economy hard. Uzbekistan also has a shortage of refining shortages.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — London-traded KMG EP said sustained low oil prices had halved revenues in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2014, a heavy warning for Kazakhstan that the near-term outlook for its economy is poor.
KMG EP saw its revenues fall, in US dollar terms, by 54% to 349b tenge ($1.8b), mirroring a 48% fall in Brent oil prices. Net profit dropped to 138b tenge ($703m), a fall of 49% in US dollar terms.
And it said that oil prices would remain weak.
“There is a risk that prices for the domestic market supplies for October to December 2015 will be significantly lower than the prices set in September 2015,” KMG EP said in the report.
KMG EP is among the top three producers of oil in Kazakhstan and participates in several international oil and gas projects.
It’s one of the Kazakh government’s main cash earning companies and its financial performance acts as a barometer on Kazakhstan’s economy. If Kazmunaigas, and KMG EP, is doing well, the Kazakh economy is generally doing well too.
KMG EP also said that in tenge terms, its salary costs have increased by 22%.
“This was largely due to an indexation of salary for production personnel by 7% in January 2015, the introduction of a Unified System of Wages for production employees from April 2014 onwards, a 10% increase in wages related to the devaluation of the Tenge from April 2014 onwards, and an increase in production bonuses from 25% to 33% for supporting production personnel from September 2014 onwards,” KMG EP said.
The Kazakh Central Bank stripped the tenge of its peg to the US dollar in August, effectively allowing the currency to devalue by 25%,a second devaluation in two years which has halved the tenge’s value. Businesses have had to promise employees salary increases to compensate for the fall in the value of the tenge, pushing up inflation across the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s foreign currency reserves fell 3% in September to just over $7b, media reported, highlighting just how much cash the Central Bank has spent propping up the manat. Azerbaijan’s Central Bank has now spent half its currency reserves in the past year.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
