Tag Archives: economy

Turkmenistan’s economy needs reforming, says IMF

MAY 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan must push through more structural reforms of Soviet era policies and characteristics still embedded in its economy if it is to navigate its way through an economic storm that has hit the region, the IMF said after a mission to Ashgabat.

Turkmenistan’s economy grew 6.5% last year, the IMF said, but there is likely to be a slowdown in 2016 because its economy it too tightly linked to gas.

“2016 could see another slight slowdown in growth on the back of a broadly stagnant hydrocarbon economy and slowing (albeit still massive) investment,” the IMF said in a statement.

In its assessment, the IMF praised austerity measures taken by the government over the past 18 months to counter the impact of the economic downturn. In particular, it praised the devaluation of the manat currency and the decision to phase out subsidies to the population.

“A fundamental re-orientation of the economy through a further acceleration of wide-ranging structural reforms, including in the areas of business climate and governance, as well as market-driven diversification, offers the best way to boost future growth rates,” the IMF said.

Turkmenistan devalued its manat currency by 19% on New Year’s Day 2015, its first currency devaluation for seven years and this year it said that it would scrap much cherished state subsidies of utilities.

Both policy moves were designed to bolster Turkmenistan’s listing economy.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Azerbaijan not to increase electricity tariffs, says S&P

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – International ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said that it doesn’t expect the Azerbaijani government to raise tariffs on electricity for fear of social unrest. S&P downgraded the state-owned electricity distributor, Azerenergy, from a rating of BB+ to BB, saying it would need a government bailout to pay back its debts.

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(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Azerbaijan lifts loan ban

MAY 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s government lifted a month-long ban on foreign currency loans, official media reported. The country’s Financial Markets Supervisory Authority, which acts as a regulator, had forbidden banks from granting loans denominated in foreign currency on April 5 to try and strengthen the local manat currency.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Non-performing loans in Azerbaijan rise

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – International ratings agency Moody’s said that the proportion of loans deemed non-performing in Azerbaijan had reached 20%, a sign of the country’s poor economic health.

Moody’s said that data clearly shows the growth of non-performing loans in Azerbaijan. At the end of 2014, the proportion of non-performing loans in Azerbaijan had been 4.5%. This rose to 9.1% by the end of the third quarter of 2015 and has doubled, again, in the past six months.

Non-performing loans are credits that banks have been unable to collect for over 90 days. Analysts deem this timeframe a problem because when a loan is not repaid within three months it is likely that it will not be repaid at all.

Moody’s downgraded Azerbaijan’s economy, giving it a negative outlook and predicting problems collecting outstanding loans.

“The manat devaluation triggered a flight out of local currency deposits, led to a rise in banks’ problem loans, and eroded capital buffers,” it said in a statement.

Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas which has collapsed in value since August 2014. The Central Bank devalued the manat currency twice last year. It ended the year at half the value it had started 2015 at.

Moody’s said this has had a negative impact on both economic activity and the banking sector.

“Azerbaijan’s economic growth outlook remains weak,” Moody’s said. “Moody’s recently revised its 2016 growth forecast for Azerbaijan, expecting real GDP to shrink by 3.3%, compared to a previous forecast contraction of 0.7%, reflecting its expectation of a contraction in both the oil/gas and non-oil/gas GDP sectors.”

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Armenian debt grows

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – According to Armenia’s Statistics Committee, foreign debt increased by 1.5% at the end of March, reaching $4.4b. Total debt also grew by 1.5% to $5.2b. The Committee said debt/GDP ratio will measure 49.4% by the end of the year. Debt/GDP ratio is a common measure to assess the health of a country’s economy.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Cashless payments grow in Kazakhstan

APRIL 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Compared to the first quarter of last year, cashless payments in Kazakhstan grew by 26%, media reported. As of February 2016, cashless payments make up 15% of the total payments in the country, highlighting cash’s dominant position. The number of terminals used to take debit or credit cards in shops grew on a year-on-year basis by 24%.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 279, published on May 6 2016)

 

Tajik Sodirot Bonk forces leave

APRIL 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tojik Sodirot Bonk, one of the biggest banks in Tajikistan, is forcing staff to take unpaid leave, media reported, an indication of the serious impact of an economic downturn. There were reports earlier this year of runs on banks. Tajikistan has been hit hard by a recession in Russia which has dried up remittance flows.

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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Azerbaijan’s oil exports drop

APRIL 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Oil exports from Azerbaijan’s state- owned energy company SOCAR shrank by 10% in 2015 compared to 2014. In 2015, SOCAR exported 22.1m tonnes of oil, out of total country exports of 35.2m tonnes. Its share of Azerbaijan’s oil exports also fell from 70% in 2014 to 63% last year.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)

 

Kazakhstan’s $1 stores profit in tough economic times

ALMATY, APRIL 26 2016, (The Conway Bulletin) — A chain of shops touting themselves as ‘$1 stores’ has opened up in Kazakhstan, one of the few retailers apparently prospering during an increasingly vicious economic downturn.

The stores, which operate under the Russian franchise Odna Tsena, carry a classic pared-back budget look and only sell products for 300 tenge (90 cents). Under the slogan “Buy without stress!”, they sell everything from washing up liquid and toilet rolls, to processed food and toys.

And they are busy. On a midweek trip to Odna Tsena, which means One Price, in Almaty, a Bulletin correspondent spoke to four shoppers. They were all women and all appreciated the shop’s discount value.

Nataliya said that she visited the shop almost weekly.

“There is a lot of choice, it’s very comfortable. I usually buy plates and dishes and some toys for my child,” she said. “Compared to other shops it is much better.”

This store opened in December 2015, in the middle of an economic storm which has forced a 50% devaluation of the tenge, pushed up inflation to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9 and pressured cost-cutting companies to scrap thousands of jobs.

Across the world, discount stores have tended to prosper during the tougher times and Odna Tsena is bullish about its own prospects.

Botagoz Tlemisova, a director at Odna Tsena, said that the chain planned to open 50 more stores across Kazakhstan in the next three years.

“We’ve been operating for just a few months, but already we’ve seen the loyalty of our customers. Our research has shown that more than 50% of shoppers come back to our shops every two to three weeks,” she told media.

In the Almaty shop, Svetlana said she had popped in because she had heard about the knock-down prices.

“I am surprised that everything here has one price, and it is cheap. It is very relevant nowadays when prices are rising on everything,” she said. She also said she would return soon.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 278, published on  April 29 2016)

 

 

 

Kazakh Samryk-Kazyna’s income to fall

APRIL 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, said its income in 2016 would fall by around 65% due to an economic downturn, low commodity prices and high debt. In 2015, Samruk-Kazyna’s income stood at 308b tenge (around $1b), up 30% from 2014. Samruk-Kazyna also projects a slower growth in its assets. By 2020, the fund expects to hold 23.7 trillion tenge ($71b).

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)