Tag Archives: economy

Azerbaijan’s GDP shrinks by 3.9%

OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s GDP shrank by 3.9% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2015, highlighting the heavy impact that a fall in the price of oil has had on the economy. The fall is roughly in line with analysts’ prediction. They had said that Azerbaijan is particularly exposed to the collapse in oil prices because it has not diversified its economy.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Car sales in Kazakhstan, a leading economic indicator, fail to pick up

ALMATY, OCT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhs bought just under 31,000 cars in the first nine months of the year, a drop of 59% compared to the same period last year.

The car market is a key indicator of Kazakhstan’s economic health and its collapse since an oil price crash in mid-2014 has mirrored the Kazakh economy. In Q1 2014, by comparison, Kazakhs bought 35,000 new cars, easily outstripping total sales for the first nine months of this year.

Analysts have said that consumers are not buying cars because of a 50% cut in the value of the tenge and higher inflation which have made them vastly more expensive.

Putting a positive spin on the news, Oleg Alfyorov, president of Kazavtoprom, the car industry union, said that he thought the market had bottomed-out and that sales would start to rise again soon.

“Kazakhstan’s car market has been in a state of recession since the second half of 2014. But this year, sales have reached a market plateau, from which retailers can start moving upwards,” he said.

Mr Alfyorov also pointed out the increased share of locally produced cars in total sales, which grew to 24%, almost double the share in 2014.

“Quarterly Kazakhs bought about 10,000 new cars. This figure has been stable since the beginning of the year.

At the same time, an increasing number of buyers preferred locally- assembled cars,” he said.

Still, this is a long way from where the industry was a few years ago when foreign car makers were eager to get a foothold in Kazakhstan’s growing manufacturing sector to launch into what they thought would be a lucrative Central Asian market.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Remittances grow in Georgia

OCT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittance data from Georgia showed an overall increase of 3.6% for the first nine months of the year compared to the same time in 2014, although cash from Russia continued to fall, media reported. Russia is the biggest source of remittances to Georgia, and the rest of the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It sent only $282m to Georgia in Jan. – Sept., down 12.3%. Remittances from Greece stood at $93m (up 1%) and from the US at $89m (up 11%). The data is important because is shows that, unlike its South Caucasus and Central Asia neighbours, Georgia is not overly reliant on remittances from Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Tajikistan increases trade with China

OCT. 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan increased its trade with China by 32% in the first nine months of the year, its statistics agency said, highlighting its increased dependency on its near neighbour. Data said that Tajikistan-China trade turnover in this period was $700m, compared to Tajikistan-Russia trade turnover of $764m, which was down by 9.3%.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Kazakhs turn to credit cards

ALMATY, OCT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhs are spending more money on credit cards than ever before, new data showed, as they try to work out ways of pulling through a prolonged economic downturn.

Data from the rankings.kz website showed that the amount of credit cards in circulation in Kazakhstan had increased by 250% this year, a jump that suggests a large rise, too, in consumer debt.

Kuralai Abenova, a student in Almaty, was using her credit card to buy kit to renovate her apartment.

“It is very convenient rather than saving money. I can take a large sum of money and then pay little bits of it off regularly,” she said.

A crash in oil prices and a recession in Russia have hit Kazakhstan hard. The tenge currency has lost around 50% of its value since 2014 and inflation is rising.

Analysts have previously warned, though, that Kazakhs’ over-reliance on credit was a weakness that could undermine the economy. During the Global Economic Crisis of 2008/9, Kazakh banks were left with piles of bad debt. The risk is that similar amounts of bad debt are being accrued now.

And this loose attitude towards consumer debt is being replicated in high street shops which are encouraging shoppers to spend through cheap loans.

Saida Zhunusova, a financial consultant at the electronics store Technodom, said she had seen a large increase in the number of people using credit cards or asking directly for credit to pay for products.

“Many people cannot pay for the goods with cash and it is more convenient for them to pay only a part of the cost. Compared to 2014-2015 our sales have doubled because of loans,” she said.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Economy worsens in Turkmenistan

OCT. 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Eurasianet website reported that prices of basic foodstuffs are spiraling in Turkmenistan as the economy buckles under inflationary pressure linked to a sharp economic downturn. It also said that the government has had to cancel a series of construction projects to save money. It didn’t give any details of the particular contracts which had been cancelled. The Turkmen government has not commented.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgia’s trade with Russia rises

OCT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s trade turnover with Russia continued to rise as relations between the two neighbours improves. Geostat, the state statistics agency, said that exports to Russia increased by nearly 18% to $612m in the first nine months of the year and imports from Russia were up nearly 15% at $480m.

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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Inflation picks up in Armenia

OCT. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – After seven months of deflation, some prices in Armenia have started to rise, the Statistics Committee said. Food prices decreased marginally, but non-food items and the service sectors registered inflation of around 1%.

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(News report from Issue No. 300, published on Oct. 14 2016)

Trade between Georgia and S. Arabia rises

OCT. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Trade turnover between Georgia and Saudi Arabia has increased, the two countries’ diplomatic corps said at a meeting in London. Saudi investment into Georgia reached $100m in the first nine months of the year and total trade turnover has doubled. Tourism is also on the rise, with visits from Saudi Arabia to Georgia likely to triple.

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(News report from Issue No. 300, published on Oct. 14 2016)

 

Uzbekistan asks for a new loan from World Bank

OCT. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – During a visit to Uzbekistan by the World Bank’s new regional director for Central Asia, Lilia Burunciuc, the Uzbek ministry of economy asked for a $100m loan to improve the country’s job market. The ministry said it wanted to create around 500,000 new, sustainable jobs over the next five years. In June, the World Bank committed to a new partnership with Uzbekistan, earmarking around $3b for a vast range of projects.

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(News report from Issue No. 299, published on Oct. 7 2016)