Tag Archives: economy

Armenia needs high-value investments

NOV. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia needs to attract high-value added investment to sustain its growth, Arsen Nazaryan an officer at the World Bank’s IFC local office said in an interview. Of crucial importance, foreign investment that can upgrade the domestic economy and increase high-skilled jobs can only be obtained if the country undergoes more reforms, Mr Nazaryan told the banks.am website. A section of its economy that Armena has developed is tech.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Uzbeks complain about price rises but steer clear of protests

TASHKENT, NOV. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Anatoliy, 60, earns a living by ferrying children to school each day across Uzbekistan’s Soviet- built capital and then hawking for fares in his battered Daewoo Matiz, along the city’s wide boulevards.

“I used to spend 80,000 sum (around $25.7) per week to buy fuel for my car and now I spend 120,000 sum ($38.6),” he said with a resigned air.

On the issue of protesting against the price rises, he shrugged and said that people in Uzbekistan were different from people in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. “People here are ready to say ‘hop mailly’ [“let it be” in Uzbek] to whatever decision is taken by officials,” he said.

Uzbekistan is considered by most human rights organisations to be one of the most repressive countries in the world and anti-government demonstrations are virtually unheard of.

Officials have said that the price rises were needed to balance the price of petrol sold in the regions and in Tashkent. Many people, though, are skeptical and have said that the government is exporting too much petrol for its own profit.

Shokhrukh, 40, another Tashkent-based gypsy cab driver sucked in a deep breath when he was asked about the petrol price rises.

“Our oil reserves in the Bukhara deposit are now insufficient to cover domestic petrol demands and the government has to import petrol from Russia which they have to pay for in roubles and US dollars,” he said.

Like other Central Asian currencies, the Uzbek sum has lost value over the past couple of years, pushing up inflation.

But is it not only drivers who will be impacted by the rise in the cost of petrol. Shukhrat, 40, an ethnic Uyghur in Tashkent, who sells cloth at Tashkent local bazaar said that all prices will have to increase off the back of such a big jump in the price of petrol.

“Food requires transportation and consequently fuel, I expect some shop owners will rise their food prices,” he said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Georgia’s GDP grows by 1.5%

NOV. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP grew by 1.5% in September, according to the country’s Statistics Committee. Total growth in Q3 2016 amounted to 2.2%, mirroring last year’s pace. Still, the government predicts a 3% growth this year and a 4% increase in 2017. In 2015, Georgia recorded a 2.8% GDP increase, its weakest since 2009.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Azerbaijan’s reserves fall, again

NOV. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s foreign reserves fell by 3.1% in October to $4b, the Central Bank said in a statement. At the end of 2015, foreign currency holdings amounted to $5b. This year alone, Azerbaijan used up 20% of its reserves. Over the past two years, sustained low oil prices forced the government to intervene in the currency market and prop up the economy. In 2015, reserves shrank by 60%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)

Kazakh C. Bank says rate cut likely

OCT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with the FT, Kazakh Central Bank chief Daniyar Akishev said that inflation had slowed to under 12% and that GDP growth would measure around 0.5% this year. He also said that it was likely there would be another interest rate cut before the end of the year, another signal that the Central Bank’s confidence in the economy has strengthened after a rocky 2015.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

Georgian C. Bank keeps rates steady

OCT. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 6.5% but said that it would lower it to 6% by the end of Q1 2017. It said that inflation and both consumer and business demand had slowed but that it was too early to cut rates now as the economy was still dealing with a previous cut. Annualised inflation in September measured 0.1% compared to a target of 5%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

Kazakh economy minister says the worst is past

ALMATY, OCT. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s economy minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev said that the worst of an economic downturn linked to a drop in oil prices and a recession in Russia had passed, the most significant upbeat statement from the Kazakh government in two years.

Specifically, Mr Bishimbayev said that the free float of the tenge last year, which triggered a collapse in its value, had been painful but was now driving the economy and making business more competitive.

“We believe that the most difficult period has been passed for Kazakhstan’s economy. We estimate that the period was in the first quarter of this year, it was the time of the lowest oil prices,” he said.

“There has been steady growth in the economy since June this year.”

Despite Mr Bishimbayev’s upbeat message, the data points to a still sluggish economy.

Economists have predicted that Kazakhstan’s GDP growth will contract this year to nearly zero. But with oil prices pushing back up to $55/barrel, double their value from the start of the year, officials have adopted a more upbeat narrative, even if caveats are dropped in.

Talking to parliament the following day, Mr Bishimbayev said that a more efficient tax collection system was needed to increase revenues from smaller businesses which had grown used to avoiding paying VAT and other taxes.

“If we want to continue to develop our systems, of course, a certain increase in the tax burden is needed, but not at the expense of those companies which already pay full taxes but at the expense of those who work outside the system,” media quoted him as saying.

Specifically, he said a third of small businesses don’t pay their full taxes.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

Petrol prices rise by 35% in Uzbekistan

OCT. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan increased the price of petrol by nearly 35%, underscoring the inflationary pressure built into its economy. State energy company Uzbekneftegaz said it was rising the price of a litre of AI-80 petrol to 2,800 soum from 2,075 soum. Other grades of petrol were given a similar price rise. Uzbekistan has been steadily increasingly the price of key items such as gas, electricity and petrol as the value of its soum currency falls, angering and frustrating ordinary people.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

GDP growth slows in Turkmenistan

OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s GDP annualised growth slowed to 6.2% in the first nine months of the year, down from 7.5% during the same period in 2015, the Turkmen state news agency said. Turkmen official statistics are considered unreliable and the information leaking out of the country points to severe economic hardship. The data is valuable in highlighting the economic slow- down that Turkmenistan and its neighbours are dealing with.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)

Azerbaijan admits its GDP will shrink in 2016

OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan said that its economy would shrink in 2016 by 2.8%, a major reversal from its earlier insistence that it would avoid a recession and post growth of 1.8%.

Answering questions posted by Reuters, the Azerbaijani economy ministry blamed sluggish oil prices and low global growth for the GDP revision. Last week government data showed Azerbaijan’s GDP had contracted by nearly 4% in the first nine months of 2016.

“The growth at 1.8 percent was projected in 2015, when the International Monetary Fund had been projecting the oil price at $64/barrel,” Reuters quoted government officials as saying. Oil prices are now around $50/barrel, double the price in January.

Most economists have been predicting a recession in Azerbaijan this year and the reluctance to downgrade its own growth estimate has been seen by many as fanciful thinking that will damage the credibility of the Azerbaijani government.

According to the World Bank the last time that Azerbaijan’s GDP contracted was in 1995.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)