SEPT. 5 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — On a trip to Armenia, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it was extending its scheme aimed at boosting lending to women and small and medium-sized businesses. It will lend Araratbank, one of the larger banks in the country, the equivalent of $10m in local dram currency, media reported.
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(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)
ALMATY AUG. 21 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a percent to 10.25% because it said that inflationary pressures had slowed. It also said, though, that further rate cuts this year were unlikely. The Kazakh Central Bank had yanked up interest rates to 17% in 2016 because of a collapse in the value of the tenge and also inflationary pressure.
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(News report from Issue No. 341, published on Aug. 27 2017)
AUG. 19 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan soum currency has been volatile since last week when Reuters reported that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the Central Bank wanted to reform exchange rates. Uzbekistan currently has two operational exchange rates — an official one and an unofficial one. The Black Market rate rose to around 7,300/$1 by Aug. 14, from around 8,400/$1 at the start of the month. It had lost ground by the end of the week, though, and finished at around 8,100/$1.
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(News report from Issue No. 340, published on Aug. 20 2017)
AUG. 14 2017 (The Bulletin) — Reflecting sharp inflationary pressures, the Uzbek Central Bank said that it was going to introduce a 50,000 soum banknote. In June, in a rare statement, the Central Bank said that rising inflation had forced it to increase its key interest rate to 14% from 9%. Earlier this year it introduced a 10,000 soum note. The 50,000 soum note is equivalent to $12 on the official exchange market and around $6 on the unofficial market.
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(News report from Issue No. 340, published on Aug. 20 2017)
AUG. 10 2017 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank will write off bad loans held by the country’s commercial banks worth $1.8b to $3b through a bond purchasing programme, Olzhas Kizatov, head of its banking sector supervision department, told media. In essence this is a bail-out of the Kazakh banking sector. The Central Bank had estimated that 11% of the banks’ loan portfolio was considered bad but Mr Kizatov said that the real figure was higher.
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(News report from Issue No. 339, published on Aug. 13 2017)
AUG. 10 2017 (The Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Armenia increased by 15.5% in the first half of the year, compared to the same period in 2016, the Armenian Central Bank said, an important indicator that the economics of the region are beginning to improve. In total, flows from Russia, an important hub for Armenian migrant workers, hit $408m between January and June. The economies of the region are partly reliant on Russia to generate wealth for migrant workers.
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(News report from Issue No. 339, published on Aug. 13 2017)
JULY 26 2017 (The Bulletin) — Moodys, the rating agency, upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’, an important indicator that analysts consider the Kazakh economy to be improving after a downturn. It cited government spending and exchange rate flexibility as well as pledged support for the banking sector as the main reasons for its improved economic outlook.
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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on Aug. 5 2017)
AUG. 2 2017 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank said that speculation over the Russian rouble had forced a depreciation of the tenge. By the end of trading on Aug. 4, the tenge was trading at 332.91/$1, down from around 310/$1 at the end of May. Kazakhs have openly started to worry about a repeat of the devaluation of 2015 that wiped 50% off the value of the currency.
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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on Aug. 5 2017)
AUG. 1 2017 (The Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 15% saying that it had seen some improvements in key economic indicators over the past few months. Specifically, it said that growth in the non-oil sector had been 5.4% in the first half of the year, 3.7% increase in trade volumes and 2.2% increase in agriculture. The Central Bank said, though, that inflation remained a concern.
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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on Aug. 5 2017)
ALMATY, JULY 20 2017 (The Bulletin) — Macroeconomic conditions in Kazakhstan are improving, Kcell, the Kazakh mobile operator part-owned by Swedish-Finnish Telia, said in its first half report, an important view of Central Asia’s biggest economy.
Kcell’s revenue from sales was down by 1.1% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2016 at 71.54b tenge ($219.5m) but this was due to changes in tariffs and the tough market conditions in mobile operations.
More importantly, Kcell CEO Arti Ots said, the economy was starting to show sustained growth after three years of stagnation.
“In the first half of 2017, we saw continued improving trends in both macroeconomic indicators and the market environment in Kazakhstan,” he said. “In the domestic telecoms market, as previously reported, ongoing tariff adjustments are starting to give a positive impact, which we expect to see the results of in the second half of the year.”
Kcell reports are watched carefully by analysts as they are considered to give a balanced corporate view of Kazakhstan’s economy. Like the rest of the region Kazakhstan has been trying to shake off a tough three years linked to a collapse in oil prices and a recession in Russia.
Economists have also said the outlook for Kazakhstan has improved this year. The Kazakh Central Bank has said inflation is easing and the World Bank has estimated that GDP will grow at around 2.2% this year, compared to 1% in 2015 and 2016.
Kcell is fighting a 9b tenge fine for late payment of taxes in 2012-15 handed out this year by the Kazakh authorities, which it says is unfair. It said in its H1 report that it didn’t expect to have to pay the full fine. Telia is looking to sell its stakes, owned directly and indirectly, in Kcell after a corruption row focused on its operations in Uzbekistan tarnished its reputation.
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(News report from Issue No. 337, published on July 27 2017)
