FEB. 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Fires last year in Russia, floods in Australia and bulk buying by wealthy countries have pushed up wheat prices around the world, angering people and worrying governments. In Central Asia and the South Caucasus some are warning of growing unrest.

On Feb. 11 in his state-of-the-nation address, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said his government would start handing out food vouchers to every family in the country and on Feb. 18 the Kazakh government promised to spend $87m building up its reserves of wheat.

But the most vulnerable countries are Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan where people have had to endure the steepest spike in wheat prices in the world on top of soaring inflation and instability.

In comments which would have resonated in Bishkek and Dushanbe, the head of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick said on Feb. 15 of the food price rises: “There is a real stress point that could have social and political implications across Central Asia.”

The World Bank has estimated that in Kyrgyzstan wheat accounts for 40% of the average person’s calorie intake while in Tajikistan the figure is even higher at 54%.

And social tension may already have flared.

In Dushanbe, media quoted a government official reassuring people that the country had enough food supplies and denying that there would be any unrest linked to a lack of food.

Local media in Kyrgyzstan reported that the government is preparing to tap into their emergency wheat reserves to feed 340,000 low income families but a Conway Bulletin correspondent in Bishkek said teachers and other state employees plan a demonstration on Feb. 23 to protest against rising food prices.