JULY 25 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Keen to reduce its energy import bill, Tajikistan has begun to build its first oil refinery, media reported. Tajikistan imports 90% of its oil from Russia which imposed an export duty tax earlier this year. The new refinery, 30km outside Dushanbe, is set to open in the second half of 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 50, published on July 27 2011)
JUNE 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – It is difficult to overstate the potential importance of the Konimansuri Kalon silver deposit in Tajikistan.
The IFC, part of the World Bank, which is advising the government on how best to exploit the deposit, reckons that mining the silver could earn Tajikistan $2b. In 2010 according to the CIA World Factbook, Tajikistan’s total national income was just under $6b.
Reuters reported that the Chinese companies considering bidding for the contract have pulled out and that only Kazzinc, which is owned by Switzerland-based Glencore, and BHP Billiton remain in the race to partner the government.
Tajikistan is poor and mountainous. Inflation is rife and living standards are dropping.
Alongside battling a growing insurgency in the mountains, the government is pursuing a heavy-handed policy against practising Muslims which analysts say is likely to back fire and push people towards militant Islamists.
Corruption is rife in Tajikistan and the economy is reliant on a Soviet-era copper smelter with opaque finances and cash from remittances. Estimates say that money from people working abroad accounts for 50% of the Tajik economy. The illegal drug trade from neighbouring Afghanistan is also an important source of income.
The Konimansuri Kalon silver deposit, located around 50km from Tajikistan’s second city of Khujand in the northwest of the country, isn’t going to change the situation overnight but it does offer some hope.
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(News report from Issue No. 46, published on June 28 2011)
JUNE 28 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The London-listed subsidiary of Kazakhstan’s state oil company, KMG EP, reduced its 2011 oil production target by 4% because of strikes in the west of the country. Hundreds of oil workers have been on strike for a month over pay.
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(News report from Issue No. 46, published on June 28 2011)
JUNE 21 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – So, an end to the row over Kazakhstan’s participation in the Karachaganak gas field is in sight.
It isn’t official yet but sources at the St. Petersburg economic forum told news agencies the consortium operating Karachaganak had agreed to give a 5% stake to the Kazakh government while the Kazakh government had agreed to pay for another 5% stake.
A deal, perhaps, and an important one.
Karachaganak, in the north-west of the country on the border with Russia, is one of the biggest gas fields in the world. It also produces a fair amount of oil. It is important both for Kazakhstan’s economic development and for investors as a weather mast of government sentiment.
Over the last few years, Kazakhstan has argued it should be given stakes in major energy projects in the country and Karachaganak was the only one it still wasn’t involved with. The government said that when the original contracts were drawn up in the 1990s, it was in a weak negotiating position and the Western companies had taken advantage of that.
The partners in the Karachaganak project are currently — BG Group and Eni with a 32.5% stake each, Chevron with 20% and Lukoil with 15%. They have been negotiating with the Kazakh government over its entry since 2009 when tax claims started appearing against the consortium.
The row had even threatened to derail the project as the government had refused to sign off on the next phase of its development in May until it had been given a stake. With the end of the ownership argument in sight, Karachaganak and investors can all move on.
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(News report from Issue No. 45, published on June 21 2011)
JUNE 9 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s delegation to talks with Russia in Switzerland over Russian accession to the WTO threatened to pull out of negotiations after it accused Moscow of plotting two bomb attacks in recent weeks, media reported. Georgia is already a WTO member and can block Russian accession.
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(News report from Issue No. 44, published on June 14 2011)
JUNE 10 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan could join Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in a Customs Union, local media quoted the country’s customs chief, Gurez Zaripov, as saying. The Customs Union, which analysts have said extends Moscow’s influence, is due to come into effect on July 1. The Kyrgyz PM has also said Kyrgyzstan may join the Customs Union.
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(News report from Issue No. 44, published on June 14 2011)
JUNE 14 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad joined Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev as a guest at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Astana. China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are SCO members.
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(News report from Issue No. 44, published on June 14 2011)
JUNE 4 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen state media quoted President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov saying Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 14.5% between January and May compared to the same period in 2010, Reuters reported. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves. It has sought out more customers this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 43, published on June 6 2011)
JUNE 1 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian gas giant Gazprom nominated Timur Kulibayev, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s son-in-law, to be one of its directors, media reported. Mr Kulibayev has become increasingly powerful. He is considered a potential successor for Mr Nazarbayev and this year he became head of Kazakhstan’s $80b sovereign wealth fund.
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(News report from Issue No. 43, published on June 6 2011)
JUNE 6 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad postponed a trip to Yerevan, media reported without giving a reason. Iran-Armenia ties have strengthened in the last year. Public Radio of Armenia quoted Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi saying that Iran-Armenia trade increased by 38% in 2010.
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(News report from Issue No. 43, published on June 6 2011)
