DEC. 28 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament approved an ambitious economic plan for 2013 that relies on cash from Chinese, Russian and Western investors, Reuters reported. The Kyrgyz economy is hugely reliant on the Kumtor gold mine, owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, which reduced output last year, forcing GDP to drop.
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(News report from Issue No. 119, published on Jan. 11 2013)
DEC. 23 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s central bank reported generally positive economic data when it said that it would hold interest rates steady at 8% because of slightly weaker than expected inflation, media reported. Inflation speeded up slightly towards the end of the year but still only peaked at around 4%, the bank said.
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(News report from Issue No. 118, published on Dec. 28 2012)
DEC. 5 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s parliament passed a budget that called for a 10% rise in government spending in 2013, RFE/RL reported. The Armenian economy is expected to grow by 7% this year and 6% in 2013 and, unlike many countries, the debate in Armenia focuses on just how much more revenue to spend rather then cut.
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(News report from Issue No. 116, published on Dec. 7 2012)
NOV. 23 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a boost to Tajikistan’s economy, its government said that a subsidiary of Coca-Cola planned to build a $30m bottling plant in the country, AP news agency reported. AP’s report said that Coca-Cola Icecek was potentially prepared to double its investment within a decade.
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(News report from Issue No. 115, published on Nov. 30 2012)
NOV. 19 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Instability stalks Kyrgyzstan. It’s prone to revolution, the rule of law is weak, corruption is deeply-rooted and ethnic tensions simmer just below the surface.
Under-pinning all this is its relatively impoverished economy. Alongside Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan is the poorest country in Central Asia, with little arable land or natural resources.
All this makes the Kumtor gold mine in the mountains of eastern Kyrgyzstan so important. It’s owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold (which is, itself, part owned by the Kyrgyz government). The mine makes up around 12% of the country’s annual GDP.
That’s why the announcement earlier this month by Centerra that the gold reserves at the mine are actually more than 50% larger than originally thought was so important (Nov. 8).
Centerra went further and said the life-span of the mine would be extended by another five years to 2023. Good news, indeed, for Kyrgyzstan.
Less positive was an announcement by the Central Bank that it expects inflation to be higher in 2013 than first thought. It now forecasts inflation in 2013 at around 11%, up from an earlier forecast of 8%. Rising food prices have created the inflationary pressure — a bad economic sign not just for Kyrgyzstan but for the entire Central Asia region.
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(News report from Issue No. 114, published on Nov. 23 2012)
NOV. 22 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – World Bank data showed, again, that Tajikistan’s economy is the most reliant in the world on remittances, media reported. In 2011, remittances, mainly from Russia, accounted for 47% of Tajikistan’s GDP. Second on the list was Liberia with a 31% share. Remittances made up 29% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 114, published on Nov. 23 2012)
NOV. 11 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Workers at the Black Sea port of Poti, in Georgia, ended their strike after management agreed to raise their wages by 20%. The workers had gone on strike on Nov. 1. Poti is a vital transit point along the transport corridor that shifts goods and energy supplies between Europe and Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 113, published on Nov. 16 2012)
Nov. 11 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Central Asia has increasingly become an economic battlefield with neighbouring nations competing for influence. China, Russia, the EU and the US all have major interests in the region. Now Japan has made a relatively bold move.
At a meeting in Tokyo with officials from the five Central Asia states, Japan’s foreign minister, Koichiro Gemba, pledged to invest $700m in the region.
Mr Gemba was vague on detail. He said that Japan’s main aim was to promote regional stability which would help promote peace in neighbouring Afghanistan.
He might be right of course, but no doubt Japan also has its eye on the region’s abundance of natural resources, in particular Kazakhstan’s supply of rare earth metals. These metals are needed in hi-tech industries, just the sort that sustains Japan’s economy.
Many countries have been vigorously searching for supplies of rare earths since China, which had produced around 90% of the world’s supply, said in 2010 it would reduce exports.
Earlier this month a joint Japanese-Kazakh plant opened in northern Kazakhstan producing rare earths. Japan is its main market. Japan’s pledge to invest $700m in Central Asia is likely to be connected to accessing the region’s natural resources.
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(News report from Issue No. 113, published on Nov. 16 2012)
NOV. 7 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Workers at the Black Sea port of Poti in Georgia have been striking since Nov. 1, media reported. The port is a vital transit point for the trade route connecting Central Asia and the South Caucasus to Europe. In 2008, the Georgian government sold a stake in Poti Port to Ras Al Khaimah, part of the UAE.
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(News report from Issue No. 112, published on Nov. 9 2012)
OCT. 23 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s economy will only grow by 5.4% this year because of poor demand for its metals, the Kazakh minister for economic development, Erbolet Dosayev, said according to media reports. The Kazakh government had earlier hoped for economic growth in 2012 of around 7%.
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(News report from Issue No. 110, published on Oct. 26 2012)
