MARCH 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector, a key benchmark of economic development, grew by 8.8% in January and February of this year compared to the same period in 2013, the state statistics agency reported. International economists have said that Azerbaijan needs to reduce its economic dependence on energy.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
MARCH 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Food prices in Uzbekistan may have risen by as much as 30-70% over the last few weeks, an anecdotal survey by the Uzmetronom.uz website said. While Uzmetronom.uz’s figures may be out, there is little doubt that rising energy prices and falling business activity is pushing up inflation in Uzbekistan.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan will increase export duty on oil by 33% to $80 per tonne from April 1 to boost budget revenues, economy minister Yerbolat Dossayev said. Kazakhstan may be using cash raised through the oil export tariff to bolster its economy after devaluing its currency by 20% in February.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tbilisi’s city council voted through a 2014 budget after previously rejecting it twice. Passing the budget will allow stalled city projects to start again. The council is controlled by the Georgian Dream party; Former President Mikheil Saakashvili’s party controls the Tbilisi city hall, which submitted the original budget for approval.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s tough times for emerging market economies. Currencies are under pressure from an upturn in the US economy and Russia’s moves in Ukraine have made people nervous.
Azerbaijan, though, seems to be handling all this with aplomb with the successful launch of its inaugural $1.2b 10-year Eurobond.
Analysts said that orders came in for around 4b, making the issue more than three times over-subscribed.
The yield came in at around 5%, roughly 200 basis points over US treasures. This shows that investors feel that Azerbaijan is a relatively good bet at the moment — certainly better than other parts of the former Soviet Union which have been dented by the brewing crisis in Ukraine.
Although analysts have said that Azerbaijan does not need to issue the loan, it may have wanted to put a marker down for any future issues.
It will also help other companies from Azerbaijan gauge how easy, or difficult, it is to enter the debt market. The state-controlled International Bank of Azerbaijan said it may look to enter the debt market this year.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — According to the Uzmetronom.uz website, many of the statistics published by the state agency are incorrect. It quoted independent economists saying that the government uses favourable data to inflate its achievements. Uzbekistan’s has been reporting a booming economy despite apparent stresses in the system.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The IMF has approved a 38 month loan roughly equal to about $127m to support economic development in Armenia, media reported. Announcing the deal, media quoted Nemat Shafik, deputy managing director of the IMF, as saying that inflation and a large current account deficit were still a worry for Armenia.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The weakening of the Kyrgyz som fuelled economic uncertainty just as winter was thawing — the most dangerous time of the year for any government in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan has experienced two violent revolutions since 2005, both in the spring.
According to the Kyrgyz Central Bank the som has lost 10% of its value against the US dollar this year.
The Central Bank blamed external politico-economic factors for the fall of the Kyrgyz som — mainly Kazakhstan’s sudden decision to devalue its own currency on Feb. 11 by 20% and the Russian rouble’s drop after Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. It also said, though, that speculators had panicked people on March 3 by selling US dollars for 59 soms, 5 soms above the official exchange rate.
Although the Central Bank declared the som crisis over on March 4, confidence in the currency is thin.
“The dollar affects everything,” said Habib Tursun as he sold milk from his brother’s farm to Bishkek residents out of his car boot. Although Mr Tursun’s operation doesn’t involve imports, except for petrol, his family save in dollars. To counter the fall in the som, he said that he had added 3 soms onto the price of a litre of milk, now 38 soms.
“Our milk is still cheaper than in the shops. If their prices are rising, why shouldn’t ours?” he said.
Prices for a number of imported products have risen 10-20%, according to local media.
This inflation may increase dissatisfaction with President Almazbek Atambayev and his government. It could also force the government to delay planned energy tariff rises and reduce the value of important remittances from migrants in Russia.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Predictions on how Armenia will perform economically over the next year don’t make pretty reading.
First, deputy economy minister Vahram Avanesyan was blunt about the impact of a downturn in the Russian economy on Armenia.
In particular he said that the drop by 10% of Russia’s rouble currency would affect the value of remittances to Armenia and also exports from Armenia.
“The first potential security risk is decline in real value of private transfers, the second is lower revenues of Armenian exporters to Russia,” media quoted Mr Avanesyan as saying.
The economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are closely linked to the fortunes of Russia. Remittance flows are particularly strong from Russia out to these peripheries of the former Soviet Union.
Armenia, though, is probably more vulnerable than most. Russian companies are bank rolling most of the country’s commerce and Russia’s state-owned companies are large investors.
Shortly after Mr Avanesyan’s assessment the IMF released its forecasts for the Armenian economy.
It said that growth would hit 4.3% in 2014 but that inflation would rise to 5%.
In line with other currencies in the region, Armenia’s dram also weakened earlier this month with the rouble. On March 3, it dropped from 350 drams to the dollar to 400 drams.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)
MARCH 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan started preparations for its Eurobond debut despite a downturn in emerging market debt. Azerbaijan is cash rich and doesn’t really need to borrow market on the international market. Instead it may use the Eurobond for promoting the country and setting a benchmark for other debt issues.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 174, published on March 5 2014)
