MARCH 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy grew only a sluggish 1.6% in the year to end-February, media reported quoting the state’s statistics agency. Most international organisations have predicted GDP growth of around 5% for Azerbaijan this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP rose 7.1% in Q4 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, the statistics office said. The data is more evidence that Georgia’s economy is bouncing back after a sluggish 2011 and 2012. The Central Bank increased interest rates last month for the first time since 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underling just how dependent Azerbaijan is on oil exports, the Central Bank published data that showed that 95% of its exports in 2013 were energy related. It exported $26.9b worth of oil and $1.6b worth of processed oil products, mainly to neighbouring Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — TALCO, the Tajik aluminium smelter and the country’s largest single industrial asset, has denied an earlier ministry of finance statement that accused it of being on the brink of bankruptcy, local media reported. TALCO is controversial because of its links to Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 23 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Several thousand people demonstrated against the government’s new pension scheme that means that people born after 1974 have to pay 5% of their salary into a central pot. The demonstration was the biggest against the scheme for some time, indicating how passionately people feel about it. There have been several protests this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Already the biggest customer of Turkmen gas, China has said it wants to boost its export of various products into Turkmenistan. Media reported a visit by a Chinese delegation to Turkmenistan, underscoring the close ties between the two countries.
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(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
MARCH 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — A rare admission from a Kazakh insider that the country’s energy policies may not be working hints at future fuel price increases, analysts have said.
Sauat Mynbayev, chairman of state-owned KazMunaiGas, said sending Kazakh oil to China to be processed into fuel and then re-importing it to make up for a shortfall in domestic refining capacity has become too expensive.
“The transit operations regarding the refining of Kazakhstan’s oil in China has become unprofitable,” media quoted him as saying.
Analysts immediately unpicked his statement. What this meant, they said, was that fuel prices would rise shortly.
And that, as the government knows, will be deeply unpopular.
Oil-rich Kazakhstan has a chronic lack of refining capacity. The three refineries at Shymkent, Pavlodar and Atyrau are often under repair. New refineries are only scheduled to come on-stream in five or six years time.
To make up for the shortfall, Kazakhstan is importing refined fuel from China and Russia. It is also sending unrefined fuel into China for processing and then shipping it back over the border.
Added to this complex arrangement is Kazakhstan’s 20% currency devaluation in February which makes imports even more expensive.
Mr Mynbayev has just been made head of Kazakhstan’s Greco-Roman wrestling federation, a position that underlines his insider credentials.
For an insider to admit a policy problem is almost unheard of in Kazakhstan. As analysts have now warned, expect fuel price increases.
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(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
MARCH 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has thrown its support behind the Azerbaijani government’s order to banks to stop lending so much cash to consumers.. At a press briefing the IMF head in Azerbaijan, Raja Almarzoqi, said: “A decrease in the share of consumer loans would be beneficial.”
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(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
MARCH 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Looking to give Georgia’s currency a boost, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) issued its first debt in lari. The 2-year bonds were worth 50m lari ($29m). The placement appears to follow an EBRD strategy. Last month it issued 1-year bonds worth 2b Armenian drams ($5m).
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
MARCH 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s transport minister, Maxim Sokolov, visited Yerevan and pledged an extra $50m investment in various joint-ventures, a sort of pre-Customs Union entry sweetener for Armenia. Pushing aside the EU’s advances, Armenia has agreed to join the Russia-led Customs Union later this year.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
