APRIL 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia signed a deal with Russia that will ease Armenian migrant workers’ permits in Russian cities, media reported. The deal is another sign of the economic benefits that Armenia is in line to receive after agreeing to join the Russia-led Customs Union. Remittances from Russia are an important part of Armenia’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)
APRIL 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Data from Kyrgyzstan’s state statistics committee showed that the country’s GDP grew by 5% in the 12 months to the end of March, media reported. GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan is fragile and over the past few years has depended on the level of output at the Kumtor gold mine and also the level of public discontent.
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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)
APRIL 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — For Kyrgyzstan membership of the Customs Union, comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, is looking ever less appetising.
Negotiations between Bishkek and the Customs Union countries at the beginning of the month failed to finalise the roadmap for the country’s accession and Kyrgyz officials have now stopped talking about entry in 2015.
At a minimum the Union’s highly protective tariffs would curtail Kyrgyzstan’s trade in re-exports with fellow WTO member China, worth up to 15% of its GDP.
Kyrgyz officials had been hoping to offset this with concessions on Chinese imports and a vague CU-financed stabilisation fund to promote domestic industries but with western sanctions on the horizon, Moscow no longer looks a model guarantor of Kyrgyzstan’s economic security.
Depending on the damage the Ukraine crisis reaps on the Russian economy, Bishkek may also fear for a series of keystone infrastructure projects the Kremlin had committed to investing in such as the Hydroelectric Power facility Kambar-Ata 2 and the civilian airport, Manas.
Long-term, migrant remittances, worth around a fifth of GDP according to the World Bank could also take a hit. The government’s one-time target of entry in 2015 now looks overly optimistic.
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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)
APRIL 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan officially joined the Russia-led CIS free trade zone, a rare collegiate move by the generally unilateral Uzbek leadership.
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially signed Uzbekistan in as a member of the group, a few weeks after Russia’s parliament had approved the plan.
The timing, for Uzbekistan, is slightly unfortunate. Uzbek president Islam Karimov agreed the move towards Russia in December last year when close ties were considered vital.
The United States was withdrawing from Central Asia, its main interest had been as a launch pad for missions to Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan no doubt wanted to balance China’s growing influence against Russia.
Uzbekistan pulls in most of its remittance cash from Russia, a vital plank of its economy.
Now, though, after its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, Russia is seen as a global pariah and increasingly heavy sanctions are set to appear.
Still, as a simple free trade agreement, rather than a global statement of geo-political intent, it is still a useful move for Uzbekistan.
It allows for the free movement of goods in the free trade zone, abolishes duties and taxes and introduces anti-dumping regulations.
The other signatures are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan. They signed up to the agreement in 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Consumer prices in Armenia were 4.6% higher in March compared to the same period in 2013, media quoted the state’s statistics centre as saying. Food prices rose by 2.6%, tobacco and alcohol by 7.3% and non-food items by 3%.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Stubbornly high unemployment is a major problem for Armenia’s economy, media quoted the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as saying in an annual reported. Unemployment last year in Armenia measured 16.8%, the ADB said. It said GDP growth in 2013 slowed to 3.5% from 7.2% in 2012.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Annualised inflation in Georgia remained a stubbornly low 3.5% in March, the Georgian national statistics agency reported. The biggest contributor to price rises during this period was the cost of heating, fuel, water and electricity which rose by 11.4%.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Tajikistan rose to $4.15b in 2013, a jump of 14%, media reported quoting the Central Bank. Remittances, especially from Russia, are vital for the Tajik economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s economy has grown 10% over the past year, media quoted the Turkmen government as saying. Turkmen government statistics can be inflated but, even so, the apparent jump in the size of the economy shows the scale of Turkmenistan’s economic growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
APRIL 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — International sanctions imposed on Russia because of its de facto annexation of Crimea will adversely affect Kazakh exports, Kazakhstan’s energy minister Uzakbai Karabalin told parliament. Mr Karabalin said that Kazakhstan may look to increase oil exports via Azerbaijan, China and Iran.
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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)
