SEPT. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Highlighting its break from Turkmen gas imports, Iran opened what it said was the largest liquefied natural gas storage depot in the world in the north of the country. Iran has said that it wants to reduce expensive gas imports from Turkmenistan, which has propelled itself into the top tier of world gas producers.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
SEPT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a thinly veiled warning to the BP-led ACG oilfields, Rovnag Abdullayev, head of Azerbaijani energy company SOCAR, said he expected its output to hit 30m tonnes this year and next year. ACG is key to Azerbaijan’s oil wealth but output has been falling.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
SEPT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan has hired Citi, JP Morgan and HSBC to arrange a potential new Eurobond, Reuters quoted sources close to the deal as saying. The sources told Reuters the Eurobond was due to be denominated in US dollars but didn’t put a value on it.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
SEPT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Preliminary data from Georgia’s national statistics agency has shown that direct foreign investment measured $415m in the first half of 2014, a drop of nearly 10% from a year earlier. Foreign investment is vital for Georgia and the figures will be seen as negative for the government.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
AUG. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – China has started work on building a new cement factory in Kyrgyzstan, underlining its commitment to Central Asia. The cement factory will be the biggest in Kyrgyzstan and will cost $70m. China has assumed an increasingly tight grip on Central Asia’s economies.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
AUG. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Reports from the regions said that queues up to a kilometre-long have been forming outside petrol stations as motorist try to re-fuel their cars.
In the northern city of Uralsk only four of 11 petrol stations were serving motorists without vouchers.
A combination of low refining capacity while upgrades are made; the devaluation of the tenge currency, which has made imports more expensive; restrictions on the quantity of imports have reduced petrol supplies.
Officials have said that they are working to bring the situation under control but frustrations threaten to bubble over.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazrbayev relies, to some degree, on the people becoming increasingly rich and comfortable for his popularity. If this starts to reduce, or become visibly impaired, his popularity may drop.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
Petrol shortages have worsened in Kazakhstan over the past few months.
AUG. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) is still a few months from coming into existence and yet Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is already threatening to quit the Russia-led alliance.
In an interview with a local TV station, Mr Nazarbayev said he wouldn’t be afraid of quitting the EaEU if the group was damaging the national interests.
“Our independence for which our forefathers fought is our greatest asset,” he said. “First, we will never sacrifice our independence. Second, we will do everything to defend it.”
Mr Nazarbayev’s comments are important as they come against the backdrop of fighting in Ukraine, where Russia is accused of supporting pro-separatist forces. Kazakh officials have become increasingly nervous that the Russia dominated north of the country may look to secede with Russia’s support.
Although economics and business interests weren’t mentioned by My Nazarbayev, there was also a clear underlying message.
Kazakhstan’s increased association with Russia has hurt it economically. Russia’s economy is so important for Central Asia that if it is impinged, this economic malaise is felt further down the chain.
The Eurasian Economic Union will come into place in 2015 and will be a direct descendent of the current Customs Union. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are members Customs Union. Kyrgyzstan and of the Armenia plan to join the group in the next few months.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Under an amnesty declared earlier this year by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, people can legalise companies and cash held offshore without being taxed over the next 12 months, media reported. Mr Nazarbayev wants to bring an estimated $10b into the economy through the amnesty.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
AUG. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – For the full year to end-July, its grew by 7.2%, a rise from 6.2% for the 12 months to the end of June, Georgia’s statistics agency said.
This growth far outstrips other countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Georgia is less reliant on Russia’s economy, which has been faltering on sanctions imposed on it since fighting broke out in Ukraine.
Instead, Georgia is increasingly looking to the European Union for economic growth. This month it will receive another boost when its accession into a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU comes into force. This will give it products — especially agriculture products, wine and water — a boost in Europe.
To coincide with this, Moody’s the ratings agency increased Georgia’s outlook to one notch below investment grade.
“We hope to see new businesses oriented on exporting their goods to the EU market and this, in turn, will lead to the diversification and growth of exports,” Mikheil Janelidze, deputy minister for the economy and sustainable development, told eurasiaNet.org.
In comparison, Armenia’s economy is faltering because of its over-reliance on Russia. Officials there are beginning to sound increasingly worried, also, about its impending admission to the Russia-led Customs Union.
In Central Asia, too, economies are under increasing pressure because of their over reliance on Russia.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s economy grew by only 2.3% in the second quarter of this year compared to a year earlier, the national statistics agency reported.
The low growth underscores concerns about the Armenian economy. In August, the Central Bank cut its full year growth forecast to between 3.6% and 4.2% from 4.1% and 4.8% because of the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy. The health of the Russian economy is vital to Armenia.
Other international economic organisations have followed and warned that economic growth in 2014 will be lower than growth in 2013.
This is, of course, worrying for Armenian officials who are looking to boost the economy. The danger for Armenia is that it’s trapped in having to follow Russia.
Armenia is surrounded by enemies, mainly Turkey and Azerbaijan, and looks to Russia for support but with the Russian economy increasingly fragile because of sanctions this is dangerous.
And Armenia appears destined to join the Russia-led Customs Union later this year. These are definitely difficult times for Armenia’s policymakers.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
