SEPT. 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan produced 6% more cars between January and August this year compared to the same period in 2013, the state’s statistics committee reported. The data shows that the Kazakh economy is still relatively buoyant despite the decline of the all-important Russian economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Remittances to Central Asia from sanctions-hit Russia have fallen by around 8%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said. Heaviest hit in Central Asia is Uzbekistan which sends back the most remittances from Russia, although this forms a lower proportion of GDP compared to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – There is only one natural resource Tajikistan is indisputably rich in. Water.
With the fresh water reservoirs close to Tehran running low, Iran is trying to work out how to import Tajikistan’s spare water, opening up a tantalising export prospect for Central Asia’s poorest country.
Iranian officials have previously touted the idea of pumping water from Tajikistan to Iran.
According to RFE/RL’s Tajik service, as of 2004 Tehran was prepared to invest $3b in an ambitious pipeline to send water from Tajikistan’s Lake Sarez to Khorasan province in Iran.
The pipeline, which could transit a billion cubic metres of water annually, would also have to travel at least 500 km across Afghanistan.
It’s expensive but when Iranian officials visited Dushanbe they again brought up the prospect, Bloomberg quoted Iran’s Mehr news agency as reporting.
With Iran’s liquidity hampered by UN sanctions, it is no surprise that now that the talk is of a water for oil swap. Tajikistan depends mostly on Russia for its petrol supplies.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Almaty sees itself as the financial centre of Central Asia and, increasingly, as a hub for businesses and companies wanting to straddle Europe and Asia.
And it appears as if it is earning plaudits.
In the latest ranking by London-based consultancy Z/Yen of the world’s most important financial centres, Almaty ranked
43 out of 84 cities, a jump from 58 in February. Only Istanbul, in Eastern and Central Europe, ranks higher in 42nd position.
Professor Michael Mainelli, chairman, Z/Yen Group told the Conway Bulletin that instability in Europe, mainly triggered by the civil war in Ukraine, had diminished cities’ standings there to Almaty’s benefit.
“Political turmoil throughout the Middle East and Asia, particularly in oil-rich dictatorships, seems to put Almaty on a more even footing with its competitors,” he said.
The index is ranked on several different areas. These are business environment; financial sector development; infrastructure; human capital; reputation and general factors.
Since the first Global Financial Centres Index was launched in 2007, Almaty has steadily improved its ranking. Good news, indeed, for Kazakhstan’s financial sector.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s government announced new electricity power price rises, the second of the year, from Oct. 1.
Like other Central Asian economies, sanctions on Russia have hit Uzbekistan too. Uzbek infrastructure is also groaning under increased demand, triggering energy shortages. Petrol shortages have also been reported for the past year.
Now Uzneftgaz, the state energy company, has said that prices for gas will rise by 10%. Water and heating prices will also rise by 7%.
These increases follow a 9% rise in April and analysts will be monitoring closely people’s reaction.
Rising utility prices can trigger widespread social unrest and with Uzbekistan in a state of flux it is vulnerable. The apparent arrest of Uzbek president Islam Karimov’s eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova, on various economic charges has unsettled politics and petrol shortages coupled with utility price increases have hit its economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Moody’s rating agency joined other analysts by downgrading economic growth predictions for Armenia because of a slowdown in Russia’s sanctions-hit economy, media reported. Moody’s said that Armenia would experience economic growth of 2.1% this year compared to earlier forecasts of 3.2%.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan increased its oil products production by nearly 2% in the first half of the year, media reported quoting official statistics. Although a marginal increase it is important because Central Asia is experience a general shortage of oil products.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Each cloud, so the saying goes, has a silver lining. For Armenia’s economy, hit badly by EU and US imposed sanctions on its main trading partner Russia, this could be its cheese industry.
Last month in retaliation for EU sanctions, Russia banned most agriculture imports from the EU. One of the biggest imports was cheese. There is now a shortage of cheese in Russia, presenting its neighbours, including Armenia, with an opportunity, as Armen Gigoyan, head of Armenia’s cheese manufacturers’ union explained.
“We supply approximately 1,500 tonnes of cheese to Russia every year. Under the current vacuum conditions in the Russian market, we could export up to 5,000 tonnes, but shortage will occur on the domestic market once we exceed 2,000 tonnes,” he said according to media reports.
Russia imports around 150,000 tonnes of cheese every year, Mr Gigoyan said, half from the EU. With economists downgrading Armenia’s economic growth prospects, news of a potential gap in the market has to be welcome. The Armenian consumer, though, who may find that the price of cheese has increased in supermarkets may not agree.
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(News report from Issue No. 201, published on Sept. 24 2014)
SEPT. 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Asian Express Airline, a private airline, will fly two return flights next month to the city of Barnaul in Russia’s Siberia from Dushanbe for migrant Tajik workers, media reported. The new route shows the economic power and importance of remittances from migrant workers to the Tajik economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 200, published on Sept.17 2014)
SEPT. 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – GM Uzbekistan sold 20% fewer cars in Russia between January and August this year than it did during the same period in 2013, media reported. Russia is GM Uzbekistan’s main market. The data is important as a macro indicator of how the slowdown in the Russian economy, because of sanctions, is impacting Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 200, published on Sept.17 2014)
