Tag Archives: economy

IS threatens Central Asia stability, says report

NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.

In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.

“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.

“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”

Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.

Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.

The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.

In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

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Copyright — The Conway Bulletin

Prices fluctuate in Armenia

JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Price changes in Armenia have become increasingly erratic as the country tries to deal with the fallout of the Russian economic slowdown. In August, media quoted the national statistics agency as saying that deflation in Armenia measured 5.2% but for the rest of the year inflation averaged 6.5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Remittances to Azerbaijan fall

>>Remittances from Russia fall>>

JAN. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As the Russian rouble falls in value, families of Azerbaijani migrants working in Russia face an increasingly frustrating economic headache.

The Azerbaijani manat has doubled in value against the Russian rouble in the last five months ago. This means that the Russian roubles sent back by Azerbaijani workers to their families are now worth half.

Unofficially around 2m migrants from Azerbaijan work in Russia. They send home about $2-3b a year, Azerbaijani economists have estimated.

Gulsara Qurbanova, a mother of three said she and her children live on money her husband sends from Russia. “Before he used to send us around 35,000 roubles a month and we received around 800 manat when we converted it,” she said. Her voice was strained with worry.

“Now it’s about half that. Obviously we face financial hardship because of it.”

The drop in the value of the rouble is hitting exports from Azerbaijan to Russia too.
Fuad Garibov from Khachmaz, a northern town in Azerbaijan said he has decided to hold on to a consignment of dates that he had intend to sell in Russia. “If I sell it now, it’s obvious that I will lose, he said.

“I hope that something will change soon.”

Azerbaijan’s economy is also reliant on oil and gas sales. With energy prices halving over the last six months, the Azerbaijani economy, which once looked so buoyant, is looking strained.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

There will be no tenge devaluation, says CB

JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The market may have priced in
another devaluation but Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the Kazakh
Central Bank, said he would not allow fluctuations in the currency.
Mr Kelimbetov has been saying for months that despite the falling
Russian rouble and a drop in oil prices, the Kazakh tenge would not
devalue.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

EBRD halves Azerbaijan growth rate

JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) halved its predictions for Azerbaijan’s growth rate in 2015 to 1.5% from 3% in 2014. The downturn in the Russian economy and the fall in the value of oil have hit Azerbaijan.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Tajik C.Bank spends half reserves defending currency

>>Tajik CBank can’t afford aggressive defence of somoni again>>

JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s rouble crisis is pushing Tajikistan to the brink of bankruptcy. The Tajik Central Bank has said that it spent half the country’s reserves last year trying to prop up its currency against the falling rouble.

These are worrying times for Central Asia’s governments. A combination of falling oil prices and Russia’s economic turmoil is pressuring their own finances.

Remittances from Russia have fallen sharply in value over the past six months or so, undermining economies in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan especially.

Central Banks have been spending heavily to try to bolster their currencies against a falling Russian rouble but this has proved difficult.

Despite spending half its national reserves — there is now less than $500m left in the Central Bank’s reserves — the value of the Tajik somoni has still fallen over 10% against the US dollar. Inflation has also risen.

All the signs are that 2015 will be complicated too. What the Tajik government can’t afford, though, is another costly battle to defend the somoni.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Uzbek car sales to Russia drop

JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — GM Uzbekistan sold 38% fewer cars in Russia in 2014 than it did in 2013, media reported quoting the European Businesses Association. The data highlights the impact that the falling rouble and the economic turmoil in Russia is having across the former Soviet Union. Russia is GM Uzbekistan’s biggest market.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Armenian economy to stagnate

JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The inter-government European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said the fall in the Russian rouble and a general economic downturn will knock Armenia’s economy into a recession this year. Armenia’s economy is particularly tied into Russia’s fortunes.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Uzbekistan retains strong growth outlook

JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite the downturn in Russia’s economy, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted decent growth for Uzbekistan’s economy in 2015 of around 7%. The EBRD heavily slashed growth rates of Uzbekistan’s neighbours. Uzbekistan’s economy is more sheltered than its neighbours.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)

Falling gas prices to hit Turkmenistan

JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The drop in the price of gas and oil will hit Turkmenistan’s economy, although it will still grow by nearly 10% in 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its updated growth forecasts. Turkmenistan’s economy is protected somewhat by contracts with China.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)