Tag Archives: economy

INCOMPLETE STORY: Kyrgyz-Kazakh trade rows

>> So what is going on here? Why are Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan rowing about trade?

>> In an interview with Euronews, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev blamed Kazakhstan for imposing a trade barrier in 2010 which then forced it to join the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union. The Kazakh side responded by denying that this had ever happened and issuing a formal complaint.

>> So is this serious? What is the back-story to this?

>> This an extension of a long-running feud between the two neighbours over trade. Each has accused the other of underhand tactics which have damaged their trade. Kazakhstan is a far bigger economy than Kyrgyzstan. This puts Kazakhstan is a far stronger position than Kyrgyzstan and Kyrgyz MPs and officials often accuse it of essentially bullying it. The issue here, though, maybe that Atambayev is looking to deflect from his unpopular move in 2015 to pull Kyrgyzstan into the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union. Kyrgyzstan became the fifth member of the group after Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia.

>> Why has the Eurasian Economic Union become so unpopular in Kyrgyzstan?

>> It’s mainly the timing of joining that was the problem. Russia had just tipped into a recession linked to a collapse in oil prices. Jobs for migrant workers dried up and various projects that Russia had promised to fund were scrapped. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan’s economy started faltering and the currency started to fall. Officials looking to shift blame found an easy target in the Eurasian Economic Union. There have also been some genuine problems with paperwork and with what was described in 2015 as a flood of cheap imports from Kazakhstan and Russia into Kyrgyzstan, which damaged local producers.

>> Are there any numbers to back this up?

>> The data that Kyrgyz officials use to back up their arguments is from the Kyrgyz Statistic Committee which said that trade with other Eurasian Economic Union members was down by over 18% last year. This was held up as proof that the Eurasian Economic Union was not working. The reality is a bit more complex. Kazakhstan also published trade figures that showed its trade with other Eurasian Economic Union figures had fallen by a similar amount. This may be more to do with the general regional economic downturn than the Eurasian Economic Union.

Economy grows

AUG. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Powered by a boost in exports and remittance inflows, Georgia’s economy grew by 4.4% in the first seven months of the year, government data showed, an increase from the 2.7% rise during the same period last year (Aug. 30). Exports in the first seven months of the year were 28% higher than in the same period in 2016. Geostat, the government statistics agency, also said business activity in general in Georgia had picked up and that there had been a 7% increase in the number of businesses registered.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Tajikistan to launch first sovereign debt issue

DUSHANBE, AUG. 30 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brushing aside a worsening banking crisis, Tajikistan said that it was going to launch its first ever sovereign bond .

Commentators said that the Eurobond could be issued at the start of September and have a lifespan of around nine years, although they did not give a coupon value. The cash raised in the Eurobond would go towards funding the construction of the Rogun Dam, one of the biggest hydropower projects in the world.

It will also make Tajikistan the second country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan, to issue sovereign debt, giving Western investors increased exposure to the region.

Media later said that Tajikistan was aiming to raise $500m through the Eurobond that was likely to have a coupon of around 7.625%.

Shortly after the announcement, ratings agency Moodys, which has Tajikistan at the “highly speculative” investment grade of B3, warned potential investors of the risks involved in a Tajik investment. It said that Tajikistan’s banks were under increased pressure.

“The issuer rating also incorporates the credit challenges posed by institutions that are weak on a global scale, although progress on financial reforms and macroeconomic stability indicate some improvements,” it said.

Over the past 15 months, the Tajik government has rolled out a bailout plan to stop banks from going bankrupt.

The Central Asia region has been recovering from a prolonged economic downturn linked to a recession in Russia and a collapse in oil prices from mid-2014.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Kazakh minister says manufacturing sector is growing

AUG. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector has created roughly 100,000 jobs since 2010, the pro-government Astana Times newspaper reported by quoting Alik Aidarbayev, the investments minister. He said that a government funded programme was the main driver of this rise. Economists and analysts have been saying that Kazakhstan needs to diversify its economy away from oil and gas.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Uzbekistan lifts decades-long currency controls

TASHKENT, SEPT. 5 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan released its soum currency from decade-long controls that have artificially bolstered its strength and allowed a Black Market to flourish.
Officially, the soum dropped by nearly 50% to trade at around 8,000/$1, roughly the Black Market level prior to the announcement that currency controls were to be lifted.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in power since September last year, wants to increase civil liberties and he saw the dual currency rates as holding back investment. The currency controls effectively made investing in Uzbekistan twice as expensive for foreign companies as it should have been.
A Conway Bulletin correspondent in Tashkent said that hundreds of ordinary Uzbeks queued to exchange Uzbek soum into US dollars at banks and official exchange points rather than through Black Market dealers in the city’s bazaars.
While most people were happy that the currency controls had been lifted, others were more cautious. One of the main gripes was that the government would only allow the exchanges to go through on special bank cards, rather than through cash.
“Currency can only be bought on a conversion card, not cash? I mean you sell your dollars to the bank in cash, but you can buy it only on the card?” one man queuing at a bank said.
“The question is – what’s the use of it? After all, with the same success, I can buy currency on the Black Market and go abroad and spend it there with the same success. When will they start selling foreign currency in cash?”
Others were more upbeat.
“It is clear that the first stage of the reform will begin to work now. And I hope after some time we will be allowed to buy dollars in cash,” another man said.
Nearby, though, the impact of scrapping the currency controls was being felt in other ways. In an area of Tashkent’s biggest bazaar usually crowded with money changers, only policemen stood idly. The currency Black Market, so long a feature of Uzbek life, has been, at least temporarily, put out of business. Some people, though, ruefully said that it could rebound.
“The Black Market will eventually come back if cash cannot be bought in banks,” one woman said.
ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017

China considers building $300m smelter in Armenia

AUG. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia is discussing a potential $300m investment with China to build a copper smelting plant, media quoted Armenian economic development minister Suren Karayan as saying. China has been increasingly busy in pushing its investment portfolio in Armenia. It wants to boost its presence across Central Asia and the South Caucasus as part of its “Belt and Road” trade strategy.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

CURRENCY MARKETS: Uzbek soum collapses after pegs are cut

SEPT. 7 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s all eyes on the Uzbek soum after the Central Bank said last week that it would converge the dual currency exchange rate system that has been operating since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Under that system, the Black Market rate of the soum was roughly half the official rate.

And so it proved. As soon as controls over the official rate were scrapped, it fell by 48% to 8,100/$1. The unofficial rate, as measured by the uzdollar.com, remained pretty much steady at around 7,700/$1.

In reality, the economic shock of ditching support for an official exchange rate will be limited. Currency controls previously meant that the Black Market rate had been widely used. Uzbeks were used to a rate of around 7,700/$1 to 8,800/1.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

 

BP says operations resume at Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz

AUG. 14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — BP said that it had resumed pumping gas out of the Shah Deniz gas field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea after a two week planned maintenance period closed the operation. The Shah Deniz gas field is Azerbaijan’s main gas field and is being expanded to send gas to Europe. Its second phase expansion is seen as critical to future European gas supplies,

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Senior Central Bank official named head of Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom

AUG. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Galymzhan Pirmatov, formerly deputy chairman of the Kazakh Central Bank, was named head of Kazatompron, Kazakhstan’s atomic energy agency, replacing Askar Zhumagaliyev who was made a deputy PM earlier in August (Aug. 31). Kazatomprom is a high profile company in Kazakhstan, with Pres. Nursultan Nazarbayev pushing nuclear power and uranium mining. Mr Pirmatov has previously been a VP at Kazatomprom.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)

Kazakhstan keeps interest rates steady

AUG. 29 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan kept its key interest rate at 5%, citing low inflation and strong economic growth. Central Asia is emerging from a period of low growth, pressured by sluggish Russian economic performance. The latest economic data adds to the generally improving picture. Only a year ago, central banks in the region were boosting interest rates in an effort to dampen inflation and prop up ailing currencies.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 342, published on Sept. 7 2017)