Tag Archives: currency

Currencies: Kazakh tenge

FEB. 17 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge continued to strengthen throughout the week, hitting 318.4/$1 at the close of play on Thursday. This is its highest level since December 2015 and represents nearly a 5% increase in its value in 2017.

Analysts have said that the tenge closely follows the Russian rouble, which has been strengthening throughout the year to 58.5/$1, a level not seen since mid-2015. The rising price of oil and stability around Ukraine and Crimea have helped to strengthen the rouble.

Kazakhstan’s economy, like the rest of the region, is closely linked to Russia’s. The free-float of the tenge in 2015 has allowed it to track the rouble more closely.

With this in mind, analysts have said that they expect a further strengthening of the tenge as it catches up with the rouble. Some have said that it’s not unreasonable to anticipate a value below 300/$1 for the tenge by the end of the year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 317, published on Feb.17 2017)

Bread prices rise in Kazakhstan

FEB. 14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — An informal study of bread prices by the ranking.kz website showed that prices have risen by 8-9% in the past year. This is important because the survey acts as a balance on official inflation data which has said that price rises have been more gentle. Economists have been predicting a jump in prices, linked to the devaluation of the tenge.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 317, published on Feb.17 2017)

Currencies: Kazakh tenge, Azerbaijani manat, Georgian lari

FEB. 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Azerbaijani manat and the Georgian lari jumped by 6.6% and 5.7% in the week to Feb. 9, a sharp jolt against their predominantly downward trajectories.

The manat was valued at 1.82/$1 on Feb. 9, a one month high. The lari was valued at 2.63/$1, a two- month high.

In Baku, some currency analysts said that this was the start of a realignment of the national currency that would see it appreciate back up to around 1.5/$1, a level not seen since mid-2016. They argued that the currency was undervalued and that as oil prices continue to rise, even slightly, and the economy improves, the manat will strengthen.

Other analysts are more cautious and have said that a multi- million dollar one-off transfer from Azerbaijan’s state oil fund to the government has boosted the value of the manat temporarily and that the decline will continue in the longer term.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)

Currencies: Kazakh tenge

FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge moved to $325.5/$1, its highest value against the US dollar since December 2015. The main drivers of this strengthened currency are oil prices and a more consistent and credible economic policy coming out of the Central Bank.

In January last year, the tenge bottomed-out at 381/$1. This was when oil prices were hovering at under $30/barrel, after Iran said it would start exporting oil as soon as US-lead sanctions were lifted, and confidence in Kazakhstan’s economic policies were at an all- time low after a bungled defence and then a sudden devaluation of the tenge.

Now oil prices are back up around $55 and Daniyar Akishev is heading the Central Bank. He took over from the hapless, indecisive

Kairat Kelimbetov in November 2015. It hasn’t been all easy for Akishev, but things are definitely looking up now. This year alone, the Kazakh tenge has outperformed its regional peers and risen by 3%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Currencies: Uzbek Som

JAN. 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Since the beginning of September, the Uzbek som has dropped from an official rate of just under 3,000/$1 to around 3,265/$1 – a fall in value of nearly 9%.

It’s a tightly managed currency and, straight away it needs to be pointed out that the unofficial black market rate for the som is around a third cheaper, but this managed devaluation is still important. Islam Karimov, president of Uzbekistan since 1991, died at the beginning of September and since then the devaluation of the som as accelerated. The graph shows this inflection point.

New Uzbek president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, gas said that he wants to promote personal liberties in Uzbekistan. This attitude has also extended to liberalising currency controls and Mr Mirziyoyev has talked about making it easier for ordinary Uzbeks and companies to take money out of the country. He may also want to reduce the price of an overvalued som more quickly than his predecessor.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Georgians line up to swap their US dollar loans for lari in government programme

TBILISI, JAN. 25 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgians have been lining up to convert their dollar denominated loans into lari under a so- called “larisation” programme aimed at easing debt burdens after the lari currency lost 21% of its value in six months.

The government will administer the programme jointly with the Central Bank starting from Jan. 17. It will run for two months.

Giorgi Tsutskiridze, the executive director of Association of Banks of Georgia, said that people had initially taken out bank loans in US dollars because they have a lower interest rate.

“Usually foreign currency loans have a relatively low annual interest rate, which is on average 3-4% less than loans in lari,” he told The Conway Bulletin.

Since the launch of the programme last week, 5,000 people have applied to switch their loans and around 250 have already made the switch. The majority of loans in Georgia are US dollar-dominated.

Georgian economy has been hit by a strengthening US dollar, a recession in Russia and weaknesses in its neighbouring economies.

Mr Tsutskiridze said the conversion of US dollar loans into lari was necessary to revive the economy.

“Dedollarisation is a vital strategy. Without rapid economic growth, we will end up in poverty,” he said.

In order to be eligible for the programme the loan must be linked to real estate received before Jan. 1, 2015.

Creditors will convert loans at 20 tetri less than the current rate with the government subsidising the difference.

Not everybody, though, is convince that the “larisation” plan is a good one.

“The lari is so devalued now against the dollar that even with the favourable exchange rate that the government offers, I would end up paying much more anyway,” said Merab, a Tbilisi resident who works in a local grocery store.

“I’d rather just wait and hope for the lari to stabilise.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Georgian lari surfs through a turbulent period of highs and lows

JAN. 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Don’t be fooled by the parity rating on the percentage change for the Georgian lari.

This is a turbulent time for the Georgian currency. The graph on the right shows its recent spikes.

Just before Christmas it bottomed-out at an all time low against the US dollar of 2.81/$1. It has recovered since then, with the help of Central Bank intervention – it sold $40m on Dec. 20 totalling $280m in 2016 – but it is still working at a level that is 30% below its high of 212/$1 in June 2016.

Government ministers have blamed an overly strong US dollar for the lari woes but Georgia’s own macroeconomic data has shown up weaknesses which may be undermining confidence in it.

The Central Bank had been happy to let its currency slide. This laissez faire attitude appears to have abated now though and there have been warnings that interest rates will start to rise as the battle hardens to boost the currency. 2017 will be another turbulent year for the lari.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 313, published on Jan. 20 2017)

Markets: Turkish lira, Georgian lari

JAN. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Turkish lira has started the year looking like the sick man of Emerging Market currencies. It dropped to an all-time low of 3.89/$1 on Jan. 10 before pulling back slightly. It has lost 25% in the past year.

The triggers for this are global unease over the incoming US president, Donald Trump, a strong US dollar and Turkey’s own domestic issues hinged around the anti- Gulenist purges currently sweeping through business and government.

The lira is a fragile currency and for the currencies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, this is a problem. After Russia, Turkey is one of the biggest drivers of regional growth. Istanbul is a natural hub for businesses in the region. Inherent weaknesses in the lira could pull down the rest of the region. And these currencies are already looking weak with the Georgian lari looking under particular pressure. Since December it has surfed around all- times lows of 2.66-2.77/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Azerbaijan’s Central Bank to scrap exchange rate corridor

JAN. 12 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s Central Bank said that it will scrap a 4% exchange rate corridor to allow the manat to float freely. The exchange rate corridor had been designed to keep the manat stable but it has come under increased pressure because of the drop in oil prices and economic problems in Russia. The manat is now trading at around 1.82/$1. In June it traded at 1.49/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Stock market: Georgian lari

DEC. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s been a rollercoaster and with all good rollercoasters after a hair-raising ride you end up where you started.

This, of course, is Georgia’s lari currency. While it hasn’t quite ended 2016 where it started, and there are a few more days to go, it has been quite a ride. The lari opened 2016 at 2.41/$. On Dec. 22, the lari was trading at 2.75/$, a slight improvement from a year-low of 2.81 on Dec. 21 after the Central Bank intervened to give its currency a bit of strength.

It’s been on the slide since June when it peaked at 2.12/$. That’s a drop of 32.5% in six months. Like I said, it’s been quite a ride.

Essentially, the lari’s problems are Emerging Market currency problems.

They have been hit by a strengthened US dollar, security wobbles and by sustained low oil prices. Chuck in the poor performance of the Russian economy and stagnant local economic growth and its easy to see why the lari has been hammered. Worse-then-expected economic data and the Georgian Central Bank’s slashing of interest rates to try to boost growth have also weighed against the it.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)f