Tag Archives: currency

Currencies: Kazakh Tenge

APRIL 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh Tenge continues its upword trajectory this year and is now threatening to break through the psychologically important 310/$1 barrier.

It last breached this level at the beginning of December 2015, during the second devaluation of the year. After 310/$1 barrier is broken, analysts are confident that with oil pushing past $55/Barrel and the macro-economic picture improving, that it is only a matter of time before the next important level of 300 tenge/$1 is also breached.

It barely registered in October 2015 when the tenge fell past this level. Overnight on Oct. 10/11 2015, the tenge fell from 280/$1 to 307.5/$1. It kept falling in value as oil prices fell and by Jan. 22 2016 was valued at 381/$1. Since then, oil has improved from under $30/barrel, helping the economy to heal and pushing the value of the tenge up by 18.3% to 311.9/$1.

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(News report from Issue No. 324, published on April 13 2017)

Kyrgyz economy is improving, says C.Bank

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MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 5%, half the level it was 12 months ago, citing an improvement in the economy and a slowdown in inflation. Importantly it said that the economy had grown in the first two months of the year and that the som currency had stabilised without the Central Bank’s interference. Currencies and economies in the Central Asia/South Caucasus region have been hit hard since 2014 by a recession in Russia and fall in oil prices.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Currencies: Tajik somoni

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APRIL 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s somoni currency keeps on hitting all-time lows. The Central Bank has managed a fall in its value since 2014 that has seen its worth half to 8.23/$1. At the start of 2014, the somoni was valued at 4.77/$1.

But, the rate of the fall may actually be good news. In July last year the Central Bank published a gloomy assessment of the somoni’s outlook. It said that the somoni would fall by 21% in 2017 and by another 8% in 2018. Of course there is some way to go, but in the first three months of the year the Tajik somoni has fallen just over 4%. This means that if the current fate of depreciation is maintain, the somoni will come in slightly better than expected.

Like the rest of the region, Tajikistan’s economy has been hit hard by the recession in Russia, it is officially the most remittance- dependent country in the world and most of this comes from Russia. The EBRD and the ADB have offered to help Tajikistan but require reforms.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Uzbek authorities crackdown on money changers

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MARCH 21 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Uzbekistan are trying to crackdown on Black Market money changers, the Eurasianet website reported. It described a raid by both undercover and uniformed police on money changers outside a major Tashkent supermarket. Under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in power since September, the Uzbek authorities have managed a careful devaluation of the som currency. The crackdown on the once thriving som Black Market, appears designed to coincide with this devaluation.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Currencies: Georgian lari, Azerbaijani manat

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MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a week of light trading and only incremental currency fluctuations, the Georgian lari performed strongest pushing up by 1.6% to 2.44/$1.

This is its highest level since the start of November last year and reflects a general strengthening of Georgia’s macro-economic scores.

Of the other currencies, only the Azerbaijani manat and the Uzbek som moved more than 1%. The manat continued its strong performance since February by moving up another 1.3% to 1.7050/$1, a five month high. Bloomberg described the manat as the strongest performing currency in the world this year. It also said, though, that ordinary Azerbaijanis still had little confidence in their currency after two devaluations in 2015 halved its value.

It said this lack of confidence showed through in Central Bank data which said 81.3% of bank deposits were now kept in US dollars, up from 79.6% at end-Dec.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Inflation at correct level, says Kazakh Central Bank chief

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MARCH 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh Central Bank chief Daniyer Akishev said that he wanted to target inflation of 6-8% by the end of the year. It currently measures 7.8% which is down from a recent high of 17.7% in July 2016. Kazakhstan’s economy has stabilised after falling heavily in the previous couple of years, a drop linked to the fall in oil prices and tenge weakness.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)f

Currencies: Azerbaijani manat

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MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Azerbaijani manat continued its strong return to form, pushing up to 1.7286/$1 by March 17, its strongest level against the US dollar since the beginning of November 2016.

At its weakest point, the manat had been valued at 1.9517/$1 in February, meaning that it has strengthened by nearly 11.5%.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has said that this manat strength is probably due to a transfer of 7.5b manat ($4.3b) from the SOFAZ, the state oil fund, to the Central Bank to boost the economy. The Azerbaijani economy has been looking fragile, because of the depressed price of oil, and it has needed the cash injection.

The Kazakh tenge and the Georgian lari also rose marginally in value throughout the week, although the Kyrgyz som and the Tajik somoni fell in value. The Kyrgyz som is surfing near its lowest point since mid-September 2016.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Uzbek Central Bank issues new banknote

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MARCH 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s Central Bank printed its first 10,000 som banknote, an official nod, perhaps, to high levels of inflation and the falling value of its currency. At today’s official exchange rate of 3,453/$1, the new note will be worth just under $3. The Central Bank introduced the 5,000 som banknote in 2013 and the 1,000 som banknote in 2001. Uzbekistan’s economy has been under pressure, pushing up inflation and devaluing its currency. The som has fallen by 13% since August.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)

Currencies: Georgian lari, Kazakh tenge, Uzbek som

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MARCH 8 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Pushed up by decent economic data and a rise in interest rates to battle inflation which threatens to pick up this year, the Georgian lari hit a four-month high against the US dollar on March 7 of 2.45/$1, according to data from Bloomberg.

It slipped back slightly towards the end of the week to 2.5/$1 but it is still 9.1% stronger than on Jan. 1.

The Kazakh tenge fell slightly over the past fortnight but it is, too, performing well in 2017, racking up gains of around 5% this year.

As for the Uzbek som, as shown in our graph, the authorities appear to have speeded up their managed devaluation of the currency. The official exchange rate is now at 3,452/$1 an all-time low. The graph clearly shows how the steps taken to devalue the som have increased in size since mid-February. The Uzbek som is now 4.3% weaker against the US dollaxr than it was on Feb. 16. This managed downward trajectory for the som is expected to continue.

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(News report from Issue No. 320, published on March 13 2017)

Currencies: Azerbaijani manat, Kazakh tenge

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FEB. 24 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge added another 1% on to its value this week, bolstered by a rise in oil prices, and the Georgian lari added 2%, a rise that analysts attributed to a general improvement in global economic sentiment.

It was a different story, though, across the South Caucasus, where the Azerbaijani manat lost another 0.8% to fall to 1.7925/$1. This is frustrating for the Central Bank as the manat had looked good to break 1.7445/$1, the level it reached at the start of February – its strongest since November.

In any case, the manat has recovered since the end of January when it bottomed out at 1.95/$1.

But the Chairman of Board of Directors of Financial Markets Supervision Authority, Rufat Aslanli, told media that the manat couldn’t rely on oil prices to pull it out of its negative spiral. “Oil price has impact on sustainability of our economy, but not on the exchange rate of dollar,” he said.

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(News report from Issue No. 318, published on Feb.24 2017)