MARCH 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Georgian Central Bank is continuing to support the lari currency, buying $40m to prop it up. This was the fourth Central Bank intervention to defend the lari currency this year. Since November, the lari has lost 29% of its value, media reported.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 24 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sent a warning to all Central Asian economies, and in particular to Tajikistan, in its Asian Development Outlook report.
Landlocked and dependent on remittances from migrant workers, Tajikistan is particularly vulnerable to the present economic crisis, the ADB said.
The ADB said Tajikistan is expected to experience a deceleration in its GDP growth. This had averaged 9% between 2010-14 but will fall to 5%.
“The decline in remittances and the traditional exports of aluminum and cotton slowed growth in 2014 and inflation worsened to 6.1%,” it said.
The ADB is also expecting rampant inflation and a further devaluation of the somoni currency by 6.5%.
Remittances, mostly from Tajik workers in Russia, represent roughly half of its GDP. The rouble crisis has affected both the value of those transfers and the capacity of these workers to retain their jobs. The ADB also said that new legislation for migrant workers in Russia will hit Tajikistan’s earnings.
“Remittances will likely contract further in 2015 as new regulations require that migrants to the Russian Federation have Russian language proficiency, as well as medical tests and health insurance that are estimated to cost about $500 per Tajik migrant,” it said.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union’s (EEU) first year is shaping up to be one to forget.
A sharp devaluation in the value of the rouble, triggered by Western sanctions and falling oil prices, and meddling in Ukraine’s civil war have hit Russia’s credibility among its former Soviet partners. After a meeting in Astana, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appeared to distance himself from the Kremlin.
Mr Nazarbayev hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko at the meeting. Armenia, the fourth member of the EEU, didn’t attend.
Mr Nazarbayev appeared to suggest that Mr Putin’s alleged support for rebels in eastern Ukraine had gone too far.
“It is important for any decisions that get made to rely on fundamental principles of international law. We are interested in Ukraine staying a stable, independent, territorially integral country,” he said.
Apparent tension at the meeting in Astana between the leaders wasn’t contained to Ukraine.
Mr Putin once again brought up the prospect of a single currency throughout the Eurasian Economic Union, something that Mr Nazarbayev has already ruled out.
“The time has come to start thinking about forming a currency union,” news reports quoted Mr Putin as saying. Mr Putin also suggested a Central Bank for the single currency could be based in Almaty.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Canada-based Condor Petroleum halted oil production at its Shoba oil field in west Kazakhstan because the oversupply of cheaper Russian oil products has dented domestic production.
A fall in oil prices and the imbalanced between the Russian rouble and the Kazakh tenge are hurting foreign energy companies in Kazakhstan. “Kazakhstan is experiencing an oversupply of refined oil products, including diesel, which is causing downward pricings pressures on domestically produced diesel and on crude oil,” Condor Petroleum said in a statement.
“Currently, Kazakhstan refineries are either not operating or the offering prices are below the Company’s cost of operations.”
This is, in effect, a criticism of the Kazakh government’s determination to defend the tenge despite the imbalance with the rouble.
Earlier this month a Kazakh official said important upgrade work to Kazakh refineries would have to be postponed because Russian oil products had destroyed their profitability.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia issued a 10-year $500m bond with a yield of 7.5%. Governments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have been borrowing to offset a drop in their economies.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)
MARCH 15 2015 (The Bulletin) – Hundreds of people demonstrated in Baku against the devaluation by 33% of the manat currency last month. The size of the march was contested with its organisers saying 10,000 people attended and police saying there were a few hundred.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)
MARCH 11 2015 (The Bulletin) – The Kyrgyz som has lost nearly 5% of its value against the US dollar this year, media quoted the head of the Central Bank, Tolkunbek Abdygulov, as saying. Mr Abdygulov also said that he wanted to impose strict capital requirements for Kyrgyzstan’s banks
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)
MARCH 16 2015 (The Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s GDP in January was nearly 17% lower than for the same month in 2015, the Central Bank said in its monthly report on the state of the economy.
In January, Azerbaijan generated receipts worth 3.63b manat ($3.46b) compared to 4.36b manat in January 2014. This means that Azerbaijan is slipping towards a recession.
The Central Bank slashed the value of the manat by 33% last month and most media in Azerbaijan, which is generally pliant and pro-government, spun the drop as a rise in real GDP because of the devaluation.
Many economists disagreed, though. Samir Aliyev, an economist at the Center for Assistance to Economic Initiatives in Baku, said this heavy drop in GDP is more evidence that the combined impact of the drop in global oil prices and also the downturn in Russia’s economy have hit Central Asia and the South Caucasus hard.
“We witnessed such a big drop only in 2008 and 2009 during the global economic crisis, when oil prices slipped down,” he said. “However, to call it a recession we should have numbers for at least three months.”
The trickle-down effect of the collapse in oil prices from the summer of 2014 — prices fell by around 50% — has only just begun to seriously dent Azerbaijan’s economy. January was the first month that GDP dropped.
Data from the Central Bank also showed that Azerbaijan’s non-oil economy — which international economists said needs to grow — increased by 5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)
MARCH 18 2015 (The Bulletin) – Ordinary Kazakhs have lost faith in the Central Bank and are expecting a tenge devaluation, media quoted Halyk Bank CEO, Umut Shayakhmetova as saying. She said the proportion of savings held in foreign currency had now risen to 70%. The Central Bank has promised not to devalue the tenge.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)
MARCH 18 2015 (The Bulletin) – The Georgian government sold the 35-storey Batumi Tower for $25.4m to a development company, generating much needed cash and ridding itself of one of former President Mikheil Saakashvili’s pet projects.
The blue and white tower with a golden ferris wheel set halfway up one of its sides has always generated wonder and ridicule.
Mr Saaskhvili, who was Georgian president from 2003 until 2013, had wanted the tower to serve as a Georgian-American technical university. His detractors said that it was a wasteful white elephant.
It has been unoccupied since it was finished in 2012.
Lika Glonti, an educational expert based in Tbilisi said: “I do think that this kind of building was not optimal for a university, but this is rather an issue of a taste. Selling Batumi Tower is a consequence of cancelling the idea of Batumi Technological University.”
The building was auctioned a day before the finance and economy ministries announced their plans to tackle the economic crisis. The local currency, the Lari, has fallen sharply against the dollar in the past few months and economists have revised down their economic growth predictions for this year.
A global collapse in oil prices and economic turmoil in Russia have impacted the wider former Soviet region.
On March 12, the economy ministry announced the privatisation of more assets, part of a larger three year plan to see it through the financial crisis that has swamped the region over the past few months.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 223, published on March 18 2015)
