JULY 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company SOCAR posted a loss of 1.8b manat ($1.2b) in 2015 because of low oil prices, its first loss for over a decade. SOCAR said it will potentially turn a profit this year because of a sharp depreciation of the manat in December 2015, when the Central Bank ditched the peg to the US-dollar.
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(News report from Issue No. 288, published on July 8 2016)
JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran and Turkmenistan have agreed a barter deal which significantly boosts their cooperation, media reported. According to Iranian media reports, Turkmenistan will export around $30b worth of gas to north Iran over the next 10 years in exchange for $30b of technical assistance. The two neighbours have been developing their cooperation over the past few years, often through barter agreements.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The total cost of the new pipelines that will form the so-called Southern Gas Corridor amounts to $6.1b, according to Vagif Aliyev, head of investment at SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company. TANAP, which will run through Turkey, will cost $4.9b, out of which Azerbaijani companies will contribute $820m, according to Mr Aliyev. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will connect Turkey to Italy, has a price tag of $1.2b, and will be completed in the next three years.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
DUSHANBE, JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The sharp economic downturn that dragged Tojiksodirotbank into administration earlier this year is circling another potential Tajik banking victim.
People lining up to use Agroinvestbank ATMs in the capital Dushanbe complained of a shortage of cash and worried that it too was going to be placed under the Central Bank’s administration. A company spokesperson denied this.
Ozod, a 42-years-old driver, said he had checked several ATMs across the city to try to find some cash.
“None of them had money,” he said. “I called the bank and they told me to check this one, as they said they had put some money in it. Now, I am waiting here and I hope I can withdraw some money to buy groceries before the Ramadan holiday.”
Nigora, a 34-year-old employee of one of Dushanbe’s many international NGOs, said that she had lost trust in Tajik banks.
“We had Tojiksodirotbank and now this,” she said. “I want to change my bank but I don’t know which one I should choose because I don’t trust the banks anymore.”
In May, Tojiksodirotbank said it had run out of cash and asked the Central Bank to put it under its administration. It also started talks to sell a stake to the EBRD. Last year the IMF said a drop in the value of the somoni and a fall in remittances being sent from Russia had undermined the economy and threatened the banking sector’s liquidity.
An Agroinvestbank employee denied rumours the bank was facing bankruptcy. Instead she said that a religious holiday was pressuring the bank’s resources. “People need more money ahead of Ramadan and that’s why cash is drying up,” she said.
The Conway Bulletin’s Tajikistan correspondent toured Agroinvestbank ATMs in Dushanbe. Most were empty, some were able to give up to $25 and others ran out of cash midway through delivering it.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – SOCAR Gas, a Turkey-based subsidiary of Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company, said it sold around 330m cubic metres of gas in Q1 2016 to the Turkish domestic market. The Turkish government decided to buy up to 1.2b cubic metres of SOCAR’s gas this year. Previously, SOCAR gas exports to Turkey were mostly destined to the Petkim petrochemical plant, in which it owns a majority stake.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian oil and gas company Lukoil said it will invest around $1b in its Uzbekistan projects and is looking to find South Korean banks that want to back its plans. Lukoil wants to build a gas processing plant in the country and treble its output at the Gissar gas field to 4.8b cubic metres/year by 2017. Lukoil is looking to strengthen its position in Uzbekistan, one of its core markets, ahead of a possible Eurobond issue.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – TAV Airports, a Turkish holding company that operates airports in Georgia, said it has started construction of a new terminal at Tbilisi airport. TAV said the project, which will include a new runway, will be completed by the end of 2017. TAV operates two airports in Georgia, in Tbilisi and Batumi. France’s ParisAeroport owns 38% in TAV, which is also listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JULY 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, nicknamed Brexit, worried investors who ditched risky assets for safe havens such as gold and government bonds. And the ripple of nervous activity spread to Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Prices in the immediate aftermath for most stocks fell sharply, by 17% in the case of Kazakhstan copper producer KAZ Minerals.
Oil and gas-linked stocks followed a fall in Brent crude prices downwards. Tethys Petroleum was down 15% (the dotted purple line on the graph) and Roxi Petroleum lost 9%.
Only one company gained from Brexit. This was Toronto-listed miner Centerra Gold which followed the rising price of gold. Brexit forced investors to look for less risky shares, pushing a rise in gold prices, which climbed above $1,300/ounce.
In the following days, most of the shares bounced back in line with global investor sentiment but the split between gold – and gold-linked shares – and the rest was clear from the initial impact.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Luxembourg-based logistics company Cargolux Airlines International has received permission from the Turkmen government to increase the number of flights to Turkmenbashi, a transport hub on the Caspian Sea shore. Since July 2015, Cargolux has connected Luxembourg City and Turkmenbashi with eight flights per week.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A blast at an oil storage facility in Turkmenbashi in western Turkmenistan killed seven people, local media reported. A government official later denied the report but it would be unusual for a report of this nature to be erroneous. If it is confirmed, the incident will be a blow to the reputation of Turkmenistan’s main Caspian Sea port.
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)
