DEC. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As the diplomatic row between Russia and Turkey intensifies, some analysts believe it could spill over into a gas war similar to the Russia- Ukraine crises of the past decade.
When Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu visited Baku last week, his statement on the acceleration of construction works for the TANAP pipeline rebounded all over the press.
Mr Davutoglu said he had reached an agreement with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to inaugurate the new gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey ahead of schedule. That is, before 2018.
Some, including myself, read this as a poke in the eye to Russia, which had imposed a food and travel embargo and suspended work on another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that would have connected Russia and Turkey via the Black Sea.
Turkey wanted to show Russia that it had options and where better to go to prove this than its erstwhile ally Azerbaijan – also a former Soviet state?
But there is also another important point that should not be overlooked. What gas would a TANAP pipeline completed early actually carry?
Supply for TANAP will come from the expanded Shah Deniz gas field (Shah Deniz-2) off the coast of Baku in the Caspian Sea.
But Shah Deniz-2 will only come online with its first gas in 2018. It simply can’t be brought forward.
So the question remains as to what gas Azerbaijan will use to fill the 16bn cubic metres it promised to its western customers if TANAP is built early.
In short, the acceleration of construction works at TANAP is meaningless before the gas is also ready to be shipped.
It is political hot air.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)