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Analysts warn of Azerbaijan- Armenia war

JULY 5 2017 (The Bulletin) — Azerbaijan and Armenia are drifting towards war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, analysts warned after a shell killed a grandmother and her grandchild on the Azerbaijani side of the conflict. Azerbaijan accused the Armenian side of shelling civilians. Armenia-backed rebels said that Azerbaijan had deployed weapons deliberately close to civilians. Commentators have been warning throughout the year that tension in the region is close to triggering another major outbreak of violence. This last exploded in April 2016.

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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on July 16 2017)

Russian tourists flock to Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia

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SUKHUMI/Georgia, JULY 16 2017 (The Bulletin) — Russian tourists are flocking to beach resorts in Abkhazia at a greater rate than ever before, giving the breakaway Georgian region an economic boost.

Russian couples walk along Sukhumi’s beachfront promenade and sip Abkhaz wine in newly renovated restaurants. Russian is the main language heard on the streets, shops are filled with Russian products and Russian newspapers are available in local newsagents. The currency used is the Russian rouble.

Abkhazia looks, feels and sounds like a piece of Russia and local residents are, mainly, grateful.

A tourist guide in Novy Afon, around 20km north of Sukhumi told the Bulletin : “Thank God there are the Russians. Not only did they save us when the Georgians wanted to exterminate us but now they make our economy run through tourism.”

It declared independence from Georgia in 1992, triggering a war that killed and displaced thousands of people and lead to a de facto independence. In 2008 after a war with Georgia focused on its two rebel states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia recognised them as independent. Only a handful of other countries looking to curry Russian favours followed.

Moscow subsidises Abkhazia’s state budget and has thousands of troops permanently deployed in the region.

Other than the military and the breakaway region’s administration, bankrolled by the Kremlin, there are few other jobs in Abkhazia, making Russian tourists so important.

And they are coming in their thousands, all via a border crossing with Russia to the north. Last year Avtandil Gartskiya, the tourism minister told the New York Times in an interview that he expected 1.5m tourists per year, up from less than 100,000 a decade ago.

By contrast, references to Georgia have been eradicated, or nearly.

The cuisine gives away Abkhazia’s Georgian connection. Georgia’s food icon, the Ajarian Khachapuri, a boat shaped crusty bread filled with melted cheese and egg, is a firm favourite with the Russian tourists. It’s been subjected to a rebrand, though, and is called ‘lodochka s yaizom’. In English, this simply means ‘boat with egg’.

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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on July 16 2017)

Estonian president accuses West of failing Georgia in 2008

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TBILISI, JULY 5 2017 (The Bulletin) — In almost her first act as President of the Council of the European Union, Kersti Kaljulaid, Estonia’s president, accused the West of failing to stand up to Russia during its war with Georgia in 2008.

In an interview with Euronews, Ms Kaljulaid said that the failure of the US and Europe to defend Georgia had sent a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he could use force to project Russia’s influence over its near abroad. She directly linked Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014 and its support for rebels in east Ukraine with apparent Western indifference towards Georgia six years earlier.

“In Georgia, I believe that the Western world made an error because they didn’t see that they are teaching the wrong lesson,” she said. “In Georgia, Russia learned that if you act, the reaction is relatively mild. And so the avalanche arrived in Crimea.”

The comments will jar with Western leaders who blamed an overzealous Mikheil Saakashvili, then Georgia’s president, for triggering a war with Russia that focused on the rebel region of South Ossetia. Several hundred people died in the short war and thousands were forced to flee their homes when Russian forces pushed back the Georgian army. It was able to set up positions deep inside Georgia and destroy Georgian military equipment and bases before pulling back into Russia.

The upshot of the war was that Russia recognised both Georgia’s rebel states, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as independent. Only a handful of other countries, and importantly none from the FSU, have followed this lead.

Like scraping off an old scab, Ms Kaljulaid’s comments are painful and important. They reveal the nervousness of ex-Soviet countries, now aligned with the West, towards Russia. These countries consider the Kremlin to be their greatest threat.

“Every country has the right to decide with whom they do business, with whom they associate themselves,” she said. “This does not suit him [Putin]. He is out to change it.”

Estonia holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for six months.

The war with Russia marked the beginning of the end for Mr Saakashvili. He had been something of a poster-boy in the West but in the run up to the war had been accused of overstepping his mandate.

By 2012 Mr Saakashvili’s United National Movement party had lost its majority in parliament to the Georgian Dream and by 2013 also the presidency. He is now living in exile, accused by the Georgian authorities of various financial crimes.

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(News report from Issue No. 336, published on July 16 2017)

Russia sends missiles to Azerbaijan

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JUNE 24 2017 (The Bulletin) — Russia has sent a batch of new anti- tank missiles to Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani defence ministry said. It released a video of half a dozen mechanised anti-tank vehicles being unloaded in Baku. Russia has previously been accused of propagating a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno- Karabakh in order to sell more weapons.

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(News report from Issue No. 335, published on July 3 2017)

Armenia accuses Azerbaijan

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JUNE 16 2017 (The Bulletin) — Armenia-backed forces accused Azerbaijan of killing three of its soldiers in another spike in violence around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tension has really been reduced since fighting in April 2016 killed several dozen people. Analysts have said that there is a greater chance of all-out war over the region now than at any time since a UN- imposed ceasefire in 1994.

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(News report from Issue No. 333, published on June 19 2017)

Armenia accuses Azerbaijan

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(News report from Issue No. 333, published on June 19 2017)

International Crisis Group warns that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to war

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JUNE 2 2017 (The Bulletin) — Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to all-out war over disputed Nagorno- Karabakh than at any time since a 1994 ceasefire was agreed, the influential think tank International Crisis Group wrote.

This is just the latest warning, although it is also one of the most high-profile, that a conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh has become a real possibility.

“Both sides, backed by mobilised constituencies, appear ready for confrontation,” the ICG wrote. “These tensions could develop into larger- scale conflict, leading to significant civilian casualties and possibly prompting the main regional powers to intervene.”

Russia maintains a large military base in Armenia, while Turkey is one of Azerbaijan’s biggest allies.

ICG said since fighting in April 2016, tension around the region has worsened

“Since mid-January 2017, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and antitank weapons have occurred with varying degrees of intensity; May saw a significant increase, including reports of self- guided rockets and missiles used near densely populated areas,” it wrote.

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(News report from Issue No. 331, published on June 5 2017)

Afghanistan pushes back Talibans from Tajik border

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MAY 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Reports from Afghanistan said that government forces had pushed back Taliban soldiers who had moved up to the border with Tajikistan. Worried about a possible incursion across into Tajikistan, the Tajik military earlier this month deployed extra forces along its border. Analysts are worried that any push into Tajikistan by the Taliban may destabilise the Central Asia region.

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(News report from Issue No. 329, published on May 20 2017)

Azerbaijan fires a missile

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MAY 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan fired a missile at an air defence system operated by Armenia-backed rebels in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, sharply escalating tension between the two enemies. Both sides accused the other of deliberately trying to provoke each other. Tension has been rising this year. In April 2016, the worst fighting since a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1994 killed several dozen people.

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(News report from Issue No. 329, published on May 20 2017)

EU comments on South Ossetia angers Georgia

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TBILISI, MAY 17 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s foreign ministry called in the EU’s special representative in Tbilisi, Herbert Salber, to explain why media had reported him congratulating the leader of the rebel region of South Ossetia on winning an election last month .

Georgia was incensed by the comments which they said went against the EU’s stated position of not recognising the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They were recognised by Russia as independent in 2008 after a Georgia-Russia war, a move followed by only by a handful of countries trying to curry favour with the Kremlin.

“What we have heard today from the EU Special Representative and the Geneva [Georgia-Russia talks] co-chairman, is to put it mildly unacceptable and incomprehensible,” media quoted Georgia deputy foreign minister Davit Dondua as saying.

Mr Sabler reportedly made the comments during a visit to Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. After meeting with the Georgian foreign ministry, the EU released a statement saying it did not recognise South Ossetia or Abkhazia.

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(News report from Issue No. 329, published on May 20 2017)