MARCH 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second largest bank by assets, said its net income in 2016 was 9.2% higher than in 2015 at 131.2b tenge ($412m). Importantly, its Q4 net income was 32% higher in 2016 than the same period in 2015 and the proportion of loans considered to be bad, those more than 90 days overdue, had dropped to 10.2% by Dec. 31, from 11.5 % on Sept. 30. The data suggested that the economic downturn that has hit Kazakhstan is lifting. Last week, Halyk Bank confirmed it would merge with Kazkommertsbank.

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ALMATY, MARCH 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin)  — The Fitch ratings agency said that it doubted a proposed merger between Kazakhstan’s two largest banks, Halyk Bank and Kazkommertsbank, could be achieved as smoothly and as quickly as the authorities had suggested.

Instead Fitch said that the bad debt inherited by Kazkommertabank when it completed the purchase of BTA Bank in 2015 was likely to linger despite a promise by the Central Bank to buy it up. It said that a Central Bank fund had promised 2 trillion tenge to buy up bad debt but that this was still short of the 2.4 trillion bad debt pile that Kazkommertsbank currently holds.

“Fitch believes there is a material risk that KKB’s problem assets may not be fully removed from the bank’s balance sheet or adequately reserved prior to a transaction,” Fitch said.

“Halyk Bank’s capitalization could weaken significantly as a result of the acquisition of KKB.”

This is important as Fitch is the first major Western institution to speak out against plans revealed earlier this month to merge the two banks.

The merged bank will have a 38% market share of the Kazakh banking sector. It placed Halyk Bank on a negative watch.

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MARCH 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — By merging Kazkommertsbank with Halyk Bank, the Kazakh elite have completed their drive to control the country’s banking sector.

It’s been a long campaign but, for the Kazakh elite, one worth fighting and winning. If previously, the country’s banking sector had been troublesome, creating billionaires such as Mukhtar Ablyazov and Nurlan Subkhanberdin who didn’t necessarily want to go along with President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s vision for Kazakhstan, now they have full control.

ALMATY, FEB. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh government is preparing what would amount to a 2 trillion tenge ($6.5b) bailout of its banking sector only eight years after it was forced to buy up a handful of failing banks during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9.

The plan is a virtual admission that policies brought in by the Central Bank since the Global Finance Crisis have failed to prevent another banking meltdown.

The sharp economic downturn triggered by a collapse in oil price in mid-2014, has wiped out jobs, pressured inflation and knocked 50% off the value of the tenge. Despite being forced to increase their capital and pass Central Bank stress tests, the Kazakh banking sector has been hit badly and is now holding billions of dollars of bad debt.

FEB. 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s banking sector needs urgent care and attention if the country is going to be able to pull through an economic downturn that has destroyed growth and wiped out people’s ability to pay back loans. The IMF said that a large proportion of the banks’ loans and assets were linked to the construction sector which has been particularly hard hit. Kazakhstan’s Central Bank has said that it would be willing to use state funds to support banks.

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