FEB. 28 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The US ambassador in Yerevan, Marie Yovanovitch, said during a speech to students and activists that Armenia needed deep reforms to move to a more democratic society, media reported. March 1 is the third anniversary of post-election clashes in Yerevan during which 10 people died.
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(News report from Issue No. 29, published on Feb. 28 2011)
FEB. 15 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia and Iran agreed to build an oil pipeline running 365km from Tabriz to Eraskh, media quoted the Armenian energy minister, Armen Movsisyan, as saying. The $100m pipeline will open in 2013. Mr Movsisyan said it was important to diversify Armenia’s energy supplies.
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(News report from Issue No. 28, published on Feb. 21 2011)
FEB. 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – At Armenia’s largest anti-government rally since the 2008’s disputed presidential elections, opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan said unless fresh elections were called the country would face demonstrations of the kind that have swept across the Middle East. Media estimated 10,000 people attended the rally.
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(News report from Issue No. 28, published on Feb. 21 2011)
FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tough, war-like language from both Azerbaijani and Armenian officials over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is not uncommon but the warning from Azerbaijan’s defence minister, Safar Abiyev, that his country is preparing to retake the region should not be ignored.
Over the last year tension has risen around Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked mountainous region. International peace negotiators appear to be making little progress and analysts say another war is not unimaginable.
Every week gunfire shatters a shaky ceasefire imposed over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994 after 22,000-25,000 people had died and 1m had fled fighting that started in 1992. Analysts say skirmishes killed around 30 soldiers last year.
Mutual distrust and animosity between Azerbaijan and Armenia have also triggered an arms race. Azerbaijan, in particular has boosted its defence spending by about 12 times since 2000.
And the implications of another seemingly localised war in Nagorno-Karabakh are likely to be far wider. The complex series of allegiances and alliances in the South Caucasus could drag neighbours Iran, Turkey and Russia into a conflict.
In a 20-page report published on Feb. 8, the influential Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group summed up what failing to prevent a war would mean. “The fighting would be intense and drawn out, affect large swathes of territory, endanger many civilians and destroy critical infrastructure,” it wrote.
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(News report from Issue No. 27, published on Feb. 14 2011)
FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Media reports quoted Azerbaijan’s defence minister Safar Abiyev as saying Azerbaijan is preparing to retake the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Top Azerbaijani officials have previously threatened war against Armenia but tension around Nagorno-Karabakh has risen recently.
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(News report from Issue No. 27, published on Feb. 14 2011)
FEB. 4 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Thousands of street vendors continued to protest against the mayor of Yerevan who introduced a law on Jan. 13, 2011 banning them because he said they were a health hazard. Officially 3,500 people have attended daily rallies although the protesters themselves say the real number is nearer 12,500.
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(News report from Issue No. 26, published on Feb. 7 2011)
JAN. 31 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – From presidential palaces across the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the spontaneous uprisings that have dislodged Ben Ali after 23 years running Tunisia and now threaten the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt are worrying.
Perhaps the ruling elite in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are most concerned. In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled for 20 years and in Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev effectively inherited the presidency from his father who ran the country from 1993.
This year Kazakhstan had planned to extend the 70-year-old Mr Nazarbayev’s rule until 2020 through a national referendum. That plan has now been scrapped.
In Azerbaijan, discontent has been growing against a ban on headscarves and the authorities have detained several senior Islamist leaders. Immolation triggered the revolution in Tunisia and according to news reports, on Jan. 20 in Azerbaijan a farmer frustrated over police corruption also committed immolation. His death may not have sparked the public outrage that it did in Tunisia but the authorities are wary.
In Yerevan, protesters angry about corruption and mismanagement have been gathering for the biggest rallies against Armenia’s government since 2008 when 8 people died in clashes between protesters and soldiers.
The Rose Revolution swept Mikhail Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003 and, tellingly, its elite have given Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution a relative quiet reception. A few years ago Mr Saakashvili may have applauded the Jasmine Revolution but in the last three years he has faced a wave of discontent and now it is viewed as a potentially destabilising factor.
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(News report from Issue No. 25, published on Jan. 31 2011)
JAN. 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Thousands of people rallied peacefully in central Yerevan against the Armenian government. Opposition politician Tigran Karapetyan, whose television station the government plans to close, organised the rally. News organisations estimated there were 7,000 people at the protest, the second major anti-government protest of the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 24, published on Jan. 24 2011)
JAN. 24 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Sporadic shooting around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has killed one Azerbaijani and injured two Armenians in the last week, RFE/RL reported. The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed worsening tension around Nagorno-Karabakh at a meeting in Moscow hosted by the Russian foreign minister.
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(News report from Issue No. 24, published on Jan. 24 2011)
DEC. 26 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenian think tank The Civilitas Foundation said 2011 would be a difficult year economically for Armenia. “Armenia’s economic growth will remain anaemic. Despite moderate global growth, there will still be lagging effects on Armenia’s economy,” it wrote in its annual report.
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(News report from Issue No. 21, published on Jan. 4 2011)
