OCT. 4 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – From 2013, Armenia will lift visa requirements for citizens of the European Union and Schengen Area (Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Iceland), media reported. Currently, citizens of these countries are able to buy a visa on arrival. Earlier this year, Kyrgyzstan scrapped visas for many Western countries.
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(News report from Issue No. 107, published on Oct. 5 2012)
SEP. 15 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Military exercises by the Russia-lead Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) started in Armenia. Media reported that 2,000 soldiers from Armenia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus would be involved in the five-day exercises. Neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia is a member of the CSTO.
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(News report from Issue No. 105, published on Sep. 21 2012)
SEP. 14 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – When Hungary allowed Ramil Safarov, a convicted murderer, to return to his native Azerbaijan it triggered a storm that encapsulates tensions in the South Caucasus.
Safarov was attending a military course in Budapest in 2004 when he crept into the room of Gurgen Markaryan, an Armenian army officer, and killed him with axe. It was brutal. Safarov smashed his axe into the sleeping Armenian several times, nearly severing his head.
But, after years in prison, he returned back to Azerbaijan and was immediately pardoned.
To Azerbaijanis, Safarov is a hero. He was promoted to major and given compensation for the time he spent in prison. In Armenia, though, he is a callous murderer.
The problem lies, of course, in a war over the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh fought between Armenian-backed forces and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. A ceasefire was brokered in 1994 but Azerbaijan and Armenia are still technically at war. Almost every week a skirmish along the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh kills a soldier.
Oil wealth has allowed Azerbaijan to re-arm over the past few years while Armenia, short of friends in the region, has looked to build a new alliance with neighbouring Iran.
The pardoning of Safarov has stoked tension at an already dangerous period.
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(News report from Issue No. 104, published on Sep. 14 2012)
AUG. 31 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Non-Aligned Movement has been many things in its 51-year history.
Created in the Cold War as a middle way for developing countries to avoid aligning with either the US-lead Western bloc or the Soviet-lead Eastern bloc, it has reinvented itself over the past 20 years. Now NAM, as it’s more commonly known, promotes the Developing World, is an advocate of disarmament and a critic of what it views as aggressive US foreign policy.
The 16th NAM summit (there is one every three years) also has another use for Central Asia and South Caucasus watchers. Tehran is hosting the summit and, in front of the world’s media, the Iranians have been eager to pull in as much support as possible.
According to the media 137 countries have sent delegations. Most are headed by a foreign minister but 24 presidents, three kings and eight prime ministers have apparently also turned up. And these include Turkmen President Kurbangkuly Berdymukhamedov, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon and Armenian President Serzh Saaksyan.
This is insightful. Iran has been making a concerted effort over the past few years to woo the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. It’s clear from the seniority of the NAM delegates where Iran has forged the closest bonds.
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(News report from Issue No. 103, published on Aug. 31 2012)
AUG. 24 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Two news stories in the past week highlight the increasingly close friendship between Armenia and Iran. Both countries need allies and, some say, they appear to be embracing each other.
Armenia has two overtly hostile neighbours, Azerbaijan and Turkey, and Iran is dealing with US-lead sanctions, imposed because of concerns that it is trying to build a nuclear weapon.
Recently, Iran has looked to Central Asia and the South Caucasus for allies but it’s with Armenia that it appears to have struck up a particularly close partnership. A new gas pipeline is being built between the countries, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Yerevan in Dec. 2011 and Armenian president Serzh Sarksyan is due in Tehran next month.
Now Reuters news agency, in a report based mainly on UN sources and Western intelligence information, said that Iran is trying to use Armenian banks to circumnavigate international banking sanctions. Armenian banking officials denied this and there was no suggestion in the article of any illegal transactions.
On Aug. 23, Armenian media also reported that the Iranian government had asked Armenia to open a consulate in the city of Tabriz. This may only be a small statement of diplomatic intent but it’s yet more concrete evidence of how the Armenia-Iran relationship is evolving.
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(News report from Issue No. 102, published on Aug. 24 2012)
AUG. 8 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bucking a trend, Armenia’s Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 8% at its latest meeting.
Although the Central Bank said inflation has slowed to the bottom of its anticipated spectrum, it warned that expected grain price rises posed an inflationary risk. Drought in the major grain growing countries has pushed up prices across the world.
The last time Armenia’s Central Bank cut interest rates was September 2011. While neighbouring Central Banks have cut interest rates in tandem with a slowing global economy, Armenia has maintained a steady course.
Kazakhstan has cut its interest rate four times this year to a record low of 5.5%. Neighbouring Georgia cut its interest rate by 0.25% in April, May and June.
Explaining its thinking, the Armenian Central Bank said inflation measured 2.3% for the 12 months to the end of July. This is just below its inflation target but is a significant jump from the month before and, according to the Central Bank, shows inflationary pressure building.
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(News report from Issue No. 100, published on Aug. 10 2012)
AUG. 8 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia and Russia, close allies, defused a potential row after Armenian president Serzh Sarksyan and Russian president Vladimir Putin agreed a new price for gas during talks in Moscow, media reported. Russia, which supplies Armenia with gas at a subsidised rate, had wanted to increase prices towards market levels.
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(News report from Issue No. 100, published on Aug. 10 2012)
JULY 20 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an election unrecognised by the international community, Bako Sahakian won a second term as president of the disputed region of Nagorno- Karabakh. The election increased tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Media reported sporadic gunfire and casualties along the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 098, published on July 27 2012)
JULY 11 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armavia, Armenia’s national airline, cancelled an order to buy a second Sukhoi Superjet 100, media reported. Armavia and Areoflot, the Russian airline, had been the only airlines to operate a Superjet, which is a medium-range passenger plane. In May, a Superjet crashed into a mountain in Indonesia on a display flight.
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(News report from Issue No. 096, published on July 13 2012)
JULY 19 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Voters in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, voted in a presidential election, a vote unrecognised by the international community. Since a war in the 1990s, ethnic Armenians have predominantly populated Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has called the election a “provocation” and analysts have warned the vote may destabilise the area.
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(News report from Issue No. 097, published on July 20 2012)
