MARCH 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Predictions on how Armenia will perform economically over the next year don’t make pretty reading.
First, deputy economy minister Vahram Avanesyan was blunt about the impact of a downturn in the Russian economy on Armenia.
In particular he said that the drop by 10% of Russia’s rouble currency would affect the value of remittances to Armenia and also exports from Armenia.
“The first potential security risk is decline in real value of private transfers, the second is lower revenues of Armenian exporters to Russia,” media quoted Mr Avanesyan as saying.
The economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are closely linked to the fortunes of Russia. Remittance flows are particularly strong from Russia out to these peripheries of the former Soviet Union.
Armenia, though, is probably more vulnerable than most. Russian companies are bank rolling most of the country’s commerce and Russia’s state-owned companies are large investors.
Shortly after Mr Avanesyan’s assessment the IMF released its forecasts for the Armenian economy.
It said that growth would hit 4.3% in 2014 but that inflation would rise to 5%.
In line with other currencies in the region, Armenia’s dram also weakened earlier this month with the rouble. On March 3, it dropped from 350 drams to the dollar to 400 drams.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 175, published on March 12 2014)