FEB. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s Central Bank has said that economic growth this year could virtually stagnate at a mere 0.4%, media reported. This figure is at the lower end of its updated estimate which blamed a poor Russian economy for the general slowdown in Armenia’s own economic prospects.
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(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)
FEB. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Gagik Tsarikian, head of the opposition Prosperous Armenia Party, has accused the government of harassing his staff and sacking police tasked with defending his property, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Mr Tsarikian said President Serzh Sargsyan ordered the tax police to close his operations.
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)
FEB. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland is due to travel to Yerevan and Baku over the next few days to discuss their relations with Washington and how to reduce rising tension along the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ms Nuland’s trip is part of a wider South Caucasus mission.
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)
>>Peace accords had been in front of parliament>>
FEB. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan withdrew a series of peace accords relating to the country’s long-running dispute with Turkey.
The move is a major setback for the region as the Armenia-Turkey spat is a hindrance to improved ties and trade with Europe. The two countries’ argue about the alleged mass killings by Turkish Ottoman soldiers of Armenians who were fleeing their land around Lake Van in the east of Turkey.
Mr Sargsyan blamed Turkey for the cancellation.
“We were ready for a fully-fledged settlement in our relations with Turkey by ratifying these protocols, but we were also ready for failure,” media quoted him as saying.
The two countries signed declarations in 2009 to establish diplomatic relations and open a land border.
The problem is that neither the Turkish nor the Armenian parliaments have approved the deals. Nationalists on both sides have instead slowed progress and frustrated efforts.
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)
FEB. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Three more people — an Armenian civilian, an Armenian solider and an Azerbaijani soldier — have died in sporadic fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, media reported quoting the Armenian defence ministry. Observers have urged calm but tension has increased.
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(News report from Issue No. 218, published on Feb. 11 2015)
FEB. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite protests, Armenia’s parliament passed a law that will reduce tax imposed on small businesses to 1% of sales from 3.5%. The proposed law has angered businesses because it will mean that they have to provide more paperwork. Armenian PM Armen Rustamyan said the law would be introduced in July, a delay of six months.
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(News report from Issue No. 218, published on Feb. 11 2015)
>>Armenia’s economy is closely linked to Russia’s fortunes>>
JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Armenia’s bond ratings to negative from stable, another sign that the Armenian economy is in for a turbulent few months.
Fitch said that it expected Armenia’s economy to slip into a recession this year and the deficit to widen.
“Remittances amount to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of 2014 as 90% of the total come from Russia,” it said in a research note.
Armenia has been hit by the drop in the Russian rouble and the turmoil in Russia’s economy, triggered by a fall in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West after the Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine.
Over the past seven months, Armenia’s dram currency has fallen by nearly 20% against the US dollar despite a steady increase in interest rates.
Of course, it’s not just Armenia which is exposed to the drop in Russia’s economy and currency. The rest of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have also been badly hit.
Armenia, though, is particularly closely linked. It is desperately hoping that there will be some improvement in Russia’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
JAN. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia is worsening. Azerbaijan said it shot down an Armenian military drone and the OSCE, Europe’s democracy watchdog, called for restraint as more soldiers were killed. In a New York Times story, expert Thomas de Waal said: “This is as bad as it has got since the (1994) cease-fire.”
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s finance ministry said it planned to issue Eurobonds later this year to help it through a tough economic period. A sharp fall in the Russian rouble has hit Armenia with analysts warning of a recession. The finance ministry did not specify the type of Eurobond it was considering issuing.
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
FEB. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Gazprom Armenia was the largest taxpayer in Armenia in 2014, media reported, highlighting just how important Russia is to the Armenian economy. Gazprom Armenia owns Armenia’s gas pipeline system. In 2014 it paid taxes of nearly 43b dram ($90m). This was almost double the second highest taxpayer.
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
