OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> So, an election in Turkmenistan then. Will it be close?
>> No, not at all. The incumbent president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, will clean up and win probably with more than 95% of the vote. He won 97% of the vote at the last presidential election in 2012.
>> Right. He must be a popular chap, then.
>> Again, unlikely, but it is very hard to tell. Since he was officially elected president in January 2007, Berdymukhamedov has carefully built up a personality cult to rival any other around the world. Last year he unveiled a statue of himself sitting on a horse with a flowing cloak. It was all very Roman. Berdymukhamedov pretty much makes all the key decisions in Turkmenistan. He runs the the economic, foreign and domestic policies. He’s not a big delegator. The problem is that it is very difficult to know how genuinely popular, or unpopular, he is at the moment as free media doesn’t exist in Turkmenistan. What we do know is that although Berdymukhamedov can take credit for opening up the economy and for developing its gas export routes, Turkmenistan is suffering, just like its neighbours, from a sharp regional economic downturn linked a drop in energy prices and a recession in Russia.
>> What do you mean?
>> Again, information that is 100% reliable is hard to come by but we do know that government salaries have been paid late and that people are blocked from transferring cash into foreign currencies. There have also been a handful of small protests in the past couple of years in Ashgabat which are vitally important in judging the mood. These have focused on domestic issues, such as satellite dishes on buildings and the destruction of suburban housing to clear ground for a new Olympic village. They are not directly political but they are good indicators that not all is as steady as the Turkmen government, and Berdymukhamedov in particular, would like. Protests are extremely rare in Turkmenistan so any indicator that people are prepared to stand up to the authorities must be taken seriously.
>> Does this make the election is risky for Berdymukhamedov?
>> Turkmenistan is a tightly controlled police state so this is unlikely. He also had to hold a presidential election next year. Until he changed the constitution last month, presidential terms in Turkmenistan were set at five years. The previous election was in 2012. He’s now changed the length of a presidential term to seven years so once next February’s election is out of the way, he won’t have to deal with another until 2024. This election will be something for the Turkmen authorities to carefully manage but beyond that it shouldn’t trigger any major problems.
>> Got it. And how will the international community deal with it?
>> This is a tricky one. The Russians and the Chinese mainly want a reliable partner and stability. They have this in Berdymukhmaedov and won’t want the the boat to be rocked, so to speak. The West, and Europe in particular, have a different agenda. They want Turkmenistan’s gas but are also interested in human rights. It’s unlikely that they will send vote monitors and they will complain about the lack of free speech but, by and large, there is very little that they can really do.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)
