OCT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Malta-based Russian telecoms service company InfiNet Wireless said it agreed a deal with Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, the national railway operator, to launch an onboard wireless service in Kazakhstan. InfiNet has already launched a pilot project on the segment between Astana and Borovoye, in the north of the country.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajik MPs formally conferred on Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon the title of ‘Founder of independent Tajikistan’, media reported. They had voted to give him the title last year. Mr Rakhmon’s opponents accuse him of building a cult of personality.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tbilisi mayor Davit Narmania opened a new Japanese Garden in the city’s botanical gardens. The $85,000 project had been paid for by the Japanese government and was dedicated to celebrating Georgia-Japan relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Governments of the South Caucasus and Central Asia are sponsoring films to promote their various causes.
This season’s new releases includes a big screen version of Nino and Ali, the classic story of a romance between a Muslim Azerbaijani man and a Christian Georgian woman, which premiered in Baku this month.
It was sponsored by the state linked Heydar Aliyev centre. Leyla Aliyeva, daughter of president Ilham Aliyev, is listed in the credits as an executive producer.
The killings of hundreds of thousands of Armenians in eastern Turkey during the end of the Ottoman Empire, described as a genocide by
Armenia but denied by Turkey, has also been turned into a Hollywood film starring Christian Bale called The Promise. The reviews, so far, have been mixed.
In previous years Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Georgia have all directly or indirectly sponsored films to promote their causes too.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz government has increased its ability to ban films considered pornographic or too violent, media reported. Human rights group have said they are worried that the new laws could be used for political reasons but family groups have welcomed the tighter control that the state will have over film releases in cinemas and on television.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ahliddin Mashrabov, a Tajik, was sentenced to 20 years in prison for killing a Russian soldier during a fight in a restaurant in the Tajik provincial city of Qurghon-Teppa. Mashrabov pleaded guilty to murdering Mashrabov but said that he was attacked first. The case has shown up the often fractious ties between Russian soldiers based in Tajikistan and ordinary Tajiks. Russia has 7,000 soldiers based in Tajikistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — On a visit to Dushanbe, Juha Kahkonen, the IMF’s deputy head for the Middle East and Central Asia, said that banks’ lending practises had gotten very slack, creating major structural economic problems during the recent downturn. He also said that around half of Tajik banks’ loans were now considered non-performing. Two high street banks in Tajikistan have been placed under Central Bank administration.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Hiding behind timid smiles, officials from Central Asia and the South Caucasus oil and gas producing countries continue to say that the worst may be over for the region’s economic slump.
In the medium term, Kazakhstan will constantly boast about the restart of the giant Kashagan offshore project and Azerbaijan will try everything it can to attract investments for the Southern Gas Corridor, the pipeline network that will pump gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
Production, however, will continue to disappoint. Output will be flat in Kazakhstan, given a lift by Kashagan finally coming back on-stream after a three year delay, and decline in Azerbaijan.
Both countries have, on different occasions, praised the decision by OPEC, the oil producers’ lobby group, to freeze production to help push prices up again.
But behind the propaganda, lies a problem, which the IMF highlighted in its latest report: these countries will face higher fiscal breakeven oil prices in the next few years, piling pressure on their economies.
In April, the IMF said that the breakeven prices that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan would need to balance their government budgets in 2016 were $47, $88 and $42.7/barrel respectively.
In a report this week, the IMF said breakeven prices for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan had grown to $71 and $50.4/barrel respectively.
For 2016, oil prices are unlikely to average above $50/barrel, which means that the three major energy exporters in the region will have to use their reserves to prop up their economies. Officials may be happier now than in January budget issues are far from sorted.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I hear that the Uzbek government sent high-level delegation to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. Why is this news? Surely this is standard practise?
>> It’s certainly not standard practice for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Their bilateral relations have been worse than poor over the past few years. This has been most obvious along their shared borders where soldiers and villagers from each side have squared up. At times it has threatened to develop into conflict, a conflict that the rest of the region has always worried would drag in neighbours. Part of the problem was that Uzbekistan blamed Kyrgyzstan for building a network of hydro projects across its rivers, depriving it of the water that it needs to irrigate its important cotton fields. There are also a series of rows over sovereignty around parts of their shared border in and around the Ferghana Valley. Osh, for example, is in Kyrgyzstan but is home to thousands of Uzbeks.
>> That does sound serious. How was this conflict avoided?
>> Essentially it appears that the death in September of Uzbek president Islam Karimov has been the key to improving bilateral Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations. He had a reputation for being a cantankerous, intransigent man who preferred to keep relations with his neighbours cool. Karimov had been in power since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union and Uzbekistan’s interna- tional relations have been notably cool during this period. The new guy, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, appears to be taking a different tack. Since he was installed as acting president, relations with Kyrgyzstan have improved markedly.
>> So, what specifically has improved?
>> There have been platitudes and visits from either side, handshakes and warm words. This may not sound like a great deal but it is. Impression is every- thing in this instance. The image of Kyrgyz and Uzbek government officials shaking hands and standing together for photo-ops in the Ferghana valley is invaluable for maintaining the peace and reducing tension. The deals and finer details will come later. It’s also important that these get-togethers have been happening around Osh and other towns and cities in the Ferghana Valley. This is the most tense and most ethnically diverse part of Central Asia. Using the Ferghana Valley as the backdrop adds extra weight to these gestures of friendship.
>> Got it. So this is the beginning of something good. What happens next?
>> It’s likely that Mirziyoyev will be confirmed as Uzbekistan’s permanent president at an election in December. If he is committed to improving relations with Kyrgyzstan, this will be a good thing for stability. Central Asia needs Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to be on good terms. We’re also due a meeting between Mirziy- oyev and Almazbek Atambayev, the Kyrgyz president. When this does happen, and it’ll probably be next year as both hold votes in December – Uzbekistan a presi- dential election and Kyrgyzstan a referendum on changing the constitution – we’ll get a better idea of just how far Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations have come.
>> And what is motivating this thaw in relations?
>> It’s not 100% clear. Mirziyoyev may have decided, along with the other Uzbek power brokers, that post- Karimov Uzbekistan needs to set out on a different foreign policy course and that making allies with neighbours and opening up to investors is the right tactics. Of course, the charm offensive may also just be a short-term gimmick ahead of the December election.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
ALMATY, OCT. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global lobby group which effectively acts as an ethical watchdog for countries with economies that rely heavily on mining, oil and gas, said it will expel Azerbaijan from the organisation if it fails to reform its NGO laws within four months.
The Oslo-based EITI is influential because Western investment is often linked to compliance with its various rules. If Azerbaijan was kicked out of the group, it would threaten vital foreign investment deals.
Last year, the EITI downgraded Azerbaijan’s membership because of what it said was a crackdown on civil society.
At a meeting in Kazakhstan, the EITI said that Azerbaijan had improved some aspects of its economy and society, in line with recommendations drawn up last year during a so-called Validation process, but that more needed to be done to retain its membership.
“Azerbaijan has made important progress in opening up the oil sector and I am encouraged to hear about the recent plans for government reforms towards more transparency,” Fredrik Reinfeldt, chair of the EITI, said in a statement.
“I hope that the government will continue its recent efforts to ensure that civil society can play its proper role in this process, otherwise this progress risks being overshadowed.”
If Azerbaijan fails to keep its EITI membership, investment for its Southern Gas Corridor, a pipeline network that will pump gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe, will be at risk.
Specifically, in September the EBRD said it would reconsider a $1.5b loan for the TANAP pipeline, part of the Southern Gas Corridor that Azerbaijan is building to pump gas from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, if Azerbaijan was kicked out of the EITI.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
