Category Archives: Uncategorised

Armenian economy is broken, says new PM

NOV. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s economy is virtually broken and needs major reform if it is going to survive, the country’s new PM Karen Karapetyan told Bloomberg in an interview.

Parachuted into the job in September after a series of crises pushed trust and credibility in the previous PM to near breaking point, Mr Karapetyan is the former Gazprom executive and former mayor of Yerevan, who President Serzh Sargsyan has tasked with transforming the Armenian economy.

Corruption and the dominance of a handful of well-connected oligarchs, who control most of the lucrative import businesses, need to be countered, Mr Karapetyan said.

“We’re proposing the most rapid change that’s possible,” he said. “We will create an even, competitive, level- playing field.”

And the ruling Republican party needs to do something fairly radical if it is going to have any chance of holding on to parliament after an election in May. In July this year, hundreds of young Armenians clashed with police in support of a group of gunmen who had captured a police station, highlighting frustration with the government.

In the interview, Mr Karapetyan also said that he wanted to cut government spending to halve the state deficit, a difficult objective if you also need to win votes.

“We also have external debt growing faster than the GDP growth and growing faster than revenues,’’ he said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

The battle for Armenia’s water services

NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Veolia and French rival Saur had been the two major bidders for a contract to unite Armenia’s water supply and sewage systems under one operator.

Prior to Veolia’s victory in the tender, the two companies had been evenly matched.

Veolia operates Yerevan Djur which supplies 1.1m people living in Armenia’s capital with water and waste services.

Since 2014, Saur has operated Armenian WSC, Lori WSC, Shirak WSC and Nor Akunk WSC which supply water and sewage services to 1m people.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

White Cliff progresses in Kyrgyzstan mine

NOV. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Australian miner White Cliff said it had successfully drilled new holes in the quartz zone of its Aucu mine in Kyrgyzstan, recovering high grade ores that yielded significant gold and copper volumes. White Cliff owns a 89% stake in Aucu, which is located 350km west of Bishkek.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Azerbaijan to privatise IBA

NOV. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan will privatise the International Bank of Azerbaijan, the country’s largest lender, in the first half of 2017, Rufat Aslanli, chairman of Azerbaijan’s financial supervisory agency, said. Azerbaijan’s ministry of finance owns 54.9% and the government- owned credit company Aqrar Kredit owns 27% in IBA. IBA accounts for around 60% of all lending in Azerbaijan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakhstan oil field goes commercial

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s troublesome Caspian Sea oil field Kashagan has finally started producing oil on a commercial basis, Kazakh oil and gas minister Kanat Bozumbayev said in a speech to parliament. The project has been heavily delayed and has run several billion dollars over budget but the news still marks an important bench mark for Kazakhstan which is counting on Kashagan revenues boosting it into the top tier of global oil producers.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Georgian Patriarch Ilia II: The tireless go-between

NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Patriarch Ilia II, head of Georgia’s Orthodox Church, has been in Moscow all week, officially to celebrate the 70th birthday of his Russian counterpart, Kirill.

This will, no doubt, form part of his trip, as will various lengthy, ornate and beautiful cathedral and church services. But another, important, side of the trip will be the semi-official diplomacy that he pursues.

This has been a vital channel for conversations between Russia and Georgia since strained relations broke down altogether in August 2008 and triggered a war that lasted for five days. It was on a trip to Moscow four months later that Patriarch Ilia started the ball rolling for the lengthy rapprochement that is continuing today.

And Patriarch Ilia’s natural ease with Russia and his Russophile outlook go back to his upbringing. He was born Irakli Ghudushauri-Shiolashvili to Georgian parents in the Russian town of Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia. He completed his theologian studies in Moscow before returning to Georgia and making his way up the ranks of the Georgian Orthodox Church.

Patriarch Ilia was promoted to Patriarch in 1977, reportedly against the wishes of the Communist party who suspected that he had nationalist tendencies, after the death of David V. It was during these last 12 years of Soviet rule that Patriarch Ilia really established himself in the eyes of his countryman as a true patriot. He built up the prestige and influence of the Georgian Orthodox Church and also, towards the end of the Soviet rule, supported independence marches.

Now aged 83, Patriarch Ilia is able to play the elder statesman of Georgian politics and society. Georgia’s politics is a fractious, personal affair but most Georgians regard Patriarch Ilia to stand head and shoulders above the rest. He has been dubbed the most trusted man in Georgia.

And he still weighs into conflicts, soothing rows and acting as a negotiator. During the final antagonistic days of Mikheil Saakshviliv’s presidency, Patriarch Ilia was called on more than one occasion to negotiate between the government and protesters.

A deeply conservative man, his anti-abortion, anti- gay rights views hold enormous sway over public opinion in Georgia. The new government has
already started to change the constitution to enshrine marriage as an act only between a man and a woman.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakh President discusses his succession

NOV. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> In his interview with Bloomberg, Nazarbayev says that he won’t hand power to his children. What do you think he means by this?

>> If you read the interview closely, it is not as clear as that. He says in the interview that he “doesn’t envisage succession for his children” and that it is “not a question for us”. Instead he says that it is up to the Kazakh people to decide through the constitution. This, of course, means through an election. I think that Nazarbayev has deliberately left this ambiguous. He is certainly not ruling out encouraging one of his two daughters, or their children, to take over form him but he is saving that whoever does will have to win a presidential election to earn legitimacy.

>> So you don’t think it is as clear cut as the Bloomberg headline writers make out. They were definitive and gave the story the headline: ‘Kazakh President Nazarbayev Says Power Won’t Be Family Business’.

>> That’s right. I think that he is leaving his options open, fully open. Of course, he can’t sit there in a Bloomberg interview and say that he favours handing over power to Dariga which, as we have said, is a likely scenario. Instead he has to say that the constitution has to be respected and the people have to decide. This can easily be manipulated to give Nazarbayev the result he wants. He just needs his Nur Otan party to select his chosen candidate and then for an election to pass this off successfully. Don’t forget that Western observers have never judged an election in Kazakhstan to be free fair. This generally means that the Kazakh elite can host can election but still generate the results that they need.

>> Right. So, when the time is right, Nur Otan picks Nazarbayev’s favoured candidate. An election is called which this candidate wins. This means that the constitution has been respected and the people have made their choice. Is that right?

>> That process would certainly fit with the process that Nazarbayev described in his Bloomberg interview. We don’t know who he favours but his interview with Bloomberg, in our view, certainly did not reduce Dariga’s chances of becoming his successor.

>> What else was important to pick up on in the interview?

>> I actually think that it’s important that Nazarbayev said he’d be happy to stay on as president past 2020. This had been the date we’d been expecting him to stand aside, he will be 80-years-old in 2020, but he’s now signalled that he is no rush to sort out the succession issue in Kazakhstan and that he’d be prepared to wait until 2025 or, dare we say it, beyond that to sort out this troublesome issue. I thought that Nazarbayev looked spritely in the interview. For a man of 76, he is clearly in good nick.

>> And, what about his comments on Trump? Surely they were important too?

>> Yes and no. I wouldn’t have expected anything else. He has to welcome Trump as the next US President. All the leaders of the Former Soviet Union do. Hillary Clinton would have meant more of the same, which essentially was poor Russia-US relations souring the whole ex-Soviet space. With Trump it’s a clean slate. Nobody is sure what he is going to do.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Kazakhstan-based financial institutions sign agreement

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan-based financial institution Almex Holding and Dutch company Staay Food Group signed an agreement to create a joint venture to develop agribusiness in Kazakhstan. They want to create a distribution network with local farmers. At a later stage, Staay Food said it plans to build greenhouses to boost exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. Almex group controls Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second- largest bank, and is owned by President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara and her husband, Timur Kulibayev.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

Turkey’s Erdogan flies into Uzbek capital to meet Mirziyoyev

NOV. 17/18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Uzbekistan to meet acting president Shavkat Mirziyoyev and lay flowers at the grave of former Uzbek president Islam Karimov who died in September.

The death of Karimov has given Uzbekistan the chance to repair damaged international relations, including with Turkey.

Turkey had been the first country to recognise Uzbekistan’s independence in 1991 but relations shortly soured and have been terse for the past 20 years.

Mr Erdogan’s visit was one of his most high-profile visits to Uzbekistan, he brought with him most of his top ministers, and came at a crucial time.

As well as repairing relations with Uzbekistan, he is looking to build support for his crackdown on civil society since a coup attempt earlier this year.

Relations between Turkey and the European Union have collapsed and Mr Erdogan now says that he wants Turkey to join the Russia and China- led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Mr Erdogan and Mr Miriziyoyez didn’t announce any major policy changes after their meeting, although they did pledge closer cooperation and various small business deals.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)

S&P improves credit outlook for Georgian Co.

NOV. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s improved the credit outlook for Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation from negative to stable, saying its performance had improved. Standard & Poor’s affirmed the company’s credit rating at B+/B and positively reviewed the financial health of the company, which is poised to decrease reliance on loans.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)