NOV. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Protests continued across parts of Kazakhstan over petrol shortages. One protest, captured in a photo essay on the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty website showed four men pulling a Soviet-era car to a petrol station near Almaty with a donkey cart.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The fallout from the sacking of Georgian defence minister Irakli Alasania rumbled on. As predicted, Georgia’s foreign minister, Maia Panjikidze, and minister for European integration, Aleksi Petriashvili, both also resigned.
They belong to the same party as Mr Alasania, the Free Democrats. The party also withdrew its support for the Georgian Dream coalition, wiping out its majority in parliament.
Mr Alasania was officially sacked for insubordination after he criticised the arrest of ministry of defence officials for alleged corruption.
These sackings weaken the government of PM Irakli Garibashvili. They have also created a potentially dangerous political enemy in Mr Alasania. He was one of the most charismatic ministers and could drum up support to challenge the government.
For now, though, Mr Garibashvili and his patron, former PM and leader of the Georgian Dream coalition Bidzina Ivanishvili, were quick to deride Mr Alasania as an ambitious adventurer.
The coalition that Mr Ivanishvili created and that Mr Garibashvili leads had been built for one main purpose — to topple Mikheil Saakashvili from power. With that ambition achieved in parliamentary election in 2012 and presidential elections in 2013 it was always likely that the coalition was going to unravel. This unravelling is a natural re-balancing of Georgian politics.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The sharp fall in the price of oil has acted as a wake-up call for Kazakhstan, economy minister Kairat Kelimbetov said in an interview with the FT.
Virtually admitting that Kazakhstan had been caught off guard by the decline by roughly a third in the price of oil since June, Mr Kelimbetovsaid that the government was the economy and to make it planning measures to shore up more attractive to investors.
“Next month the government will be ready to announce some counter cyclical fiscal policy, with big plans in infrastructure,” he said in the interview in Almaty.
Economists have warned that a devaluing rouble and falling oil prices will combined to knock Kazakhstan’s growth rate.
And the falling economy is also knocking investor confidence. Energy analyst Sergei Smirnov said that with Brent oil prices falling to a four year low of $82/barrel it makes projects such as Kashagan unprofitable.
“Offshore oil production is always much more expensive than onshore production,” he said according to media.
Kazakh officials who have staked their credibility and the country’s economic prosperity on Kasahgan but the project is already behind schedule and running over budget.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a speech to the nation, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev ordered Kazakhstan’s government to spend more money on infrastructure projects to counter the drag caused by a slowing Russian economy and falling oil prices.
The hastily arranged policy speech caught observers by surprise. Mr Nazarbayev usually waits until his state-of- the-nation speech in January to unveil new policy.
“The tough times for which we prepared ourselves with the National Oil Fund have come. It’s time to use these reserves,” he said during his combative address.
Kazakhstan has amassed a sovereign wealth fund of roughly $77b to counter downturns in commodity prices — the economy is mainly reliant on oil and gas exports — as well as to defend the tenge currency when it is under pressure from a falling rouble.
And Mr Nazarbayev is acutely aware that economic progress is a cornerstone of his popularity.
Mr Nazarbayev pledged to inject $3b every year into Kazakhstan’s economy, during 2015/17. He also said that inter-governmental banks have pledged to match this cash injection.
“The investment from the National Fund must be necessarily accompanied by structural reforms,” he said. “This money will be channelled to develop transport, energy, industrial and social infrastructure.”
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF completed a mission to Turkmenistan and said that economic growth measured between 10% and 11% this year. Importantly the IMF said Turkmenistan was sheltered from the slowdown in neighbouring economies, and in particular Russia, because of its limited exposure to foreign markets.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 6 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The authorities in Uzbekistan have sacked the powerful head of the Tashkent police force, Colonel Abdumajid Mullajonov, and several of his deputies, media reported.
Over the past year intrigue has gripped Uzbekistan over the demise of the once all-power daughter of President Islam Karimov, Gulnara Karimova, and her associates. Sources in Tashkent said, though, that dismissal of Colonel Mullajonov, the son of the Central Bank chief, was not linked to politics.
Instead media said he had been sacked for corruption and bribery.
The importance of the change of leadership at the Tashkent police force is to highlight the flux that these powerful Uzbek institutions are currently going through.
Uzbek sources said Colonel Mullajonov allegedly misappropriated businesses of a sugar magnate who was a close business partner of Ms Karimova, and that he owned dozens of fuel stations in the two largest cities in Uzbekistan.
Uzbek politics, business and power are closely linked. The sacking of Colonel Mullajonov and his colleagues adds more intrigue to a fluid domestic situation.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – On yet another trip to Beijing, Tajik President Emmomali Rakhmon agreed a deal with Chinese PM Li Keqiang to increase China’s investment in energy, transport and agriculture. Although no details of the deal were released it does underline China’s increasingly dominant investor position.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a sign of improving Azerbaijani- Armenian relations, Armenia said that it would send a team to participate at the inaugural European Games in Baku next year. Armenia and Azerbaijan are arch enemies and have disputed the region of Nagorno-Karabakh since the early 1990s.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan agreed a deal for Astana to meet most of Bishkek’s electricity deficit, albeit at a price greater than Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev would have wanted to pay.
The deal, finalised during a meeting between Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Mr Atambayev in Astana, means Kyrgyzstan must pay roughly three times more for the imported electricity than Kyrgyz citizens pay for domestically-produced electricity. Importantly, it also shows Kazakhstan’s political clout in Kyrgyzstan is growing.
An estimated deficit of 2b kilowatt hours (kWh) this year, caused by a shortage of water in its reservoirs, public reaction to shutoffs drove Bishkek and the potential to sign the deal.
Mr Atambayev will be relieved to have made the deal to import 1.4b kWh from Kazakhstan but here are still problems. He will have to make up the shortfall from somewhere else, possibly Turkmenistan, and he will have to finance the extra costs.
Currently the government has suggested modest tariff increases beginning Jan. 1. These are bound to irritate people in Kyrgyzstan.
Other agreements reached by Mr Atambayev and Mr Nazarbayev at the meeting are also indicative and suggested that Kazakhstan maintains significant leverage over its weaker neighbour.
Mr Nazarbayev promised that a fleet of Kyrgyzstan-bound fuel wagons, owned by Russian energy giant Rosneft and held by Kazakh customs officials without explanation since April, would be allowed to cross the two countries’ mutual border. He also pledged a $100 million grant to Kyrgyzstan as the country prepares to enter the Eurasian Economic.
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(News report from Issue No. 208, published on Nov.12 2014)
NOV. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – During a visit to Sweden by Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandalian, Armenia opened an embassy in Stockholm. Armenia has been looking to open more embassies abroad to both boost its support base and lobby for allies to back it with its dispute with Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
