NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia’s lower house of parliament passed a law that ratified deeper economic cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, part of the process towards Kyrgyz accession into the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The deal will mean a $1b windfall in cash and loans from Russia to Kyrgyzstan.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A new railway running from Kazakhstan, through Turkmenistan to Iran will open on Dec. 3, Iran’s minister for urban development, Abbas Akhoundi, said. The route is an important part of a new north-south Silk Road. Turkmenistan wants to encourage trade across its territories.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – An outdated version of the Kazakh national anthem was played at a medals ceremony at the Women’s World Amateur Boxing Championships in South Korea, media reported. Kazakhstan is sensitive about national anthem mix-ups after errors that included a spoof anthem and the old Soviet anthem.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and the Gulf state of Kuwait are growing closer, as a recent bilateral agreement allowing visa-free travel for state officials showed.
Diplomatic delegations have been shuffling back and forth between the two countries ever since Tajikistan’s embassy in Kuwait opened in 2013.
Kuwait wants to import fresh water from Tajikistan; Tajikistan wants Kuwait’s oil, although how the logistics of that swap would work is unclear.
Currently bilateral trade is weak, registering just over $30,000 for the first ten months of this year. But a visit by Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon last year earned a promise of Kuwaiti investment in construction as well as the reconstruction of facilities in Tajikistan’s critical hydro and tourism sectors.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s economy is overly dependent on oil revenues, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices, the IMF said. The warning is particularly pertinent now as oil prices have fallen around 40% over the last few months.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Serik Akhmetov, a former Kazakh prime minister and defence minister, was arrested and placed under house arrest for alleged corruption.
It’s been a spectacular fall from grace for the man who was prime minister in April before being moved to the head the defence ministry. He was sacked as defence minister in October.
Powerbases in Kazakhstan are still formed at a local level and it was clear that Mr Akhmetov was going to find himself under increased pressure when senior officials from his home region of Karaganda started to be arrested.
A local court has imprisoned former governor of the region, Baurzhan Abdishev and the former mayor of the city of Karaganda, Meyram Smagulov as well as other officials.
A loyal figure ready to accept any inconvenient position under the instruction of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Mr Akhmetov was one of two powerful men from the Karaganda region. The other one, Nurlan Nigmatullin, is now head of the presidential administration. Businessmen used to say that without Mr Akhmetov’s approval, no deals could be reached in Kazakhstan.
“It would appear [that] the arrest of the former PM of Kazakhstan is about graft, but it could also be an attempt to rid the field of competitive presidential successors,” said Stacy Closson, professor at the University of Kentucky and expert on Central Asian elites.
Possibly.
Mr Akhmetov’s arrest certainly changes the relationship between corruption and politics in Kazakhstan. Previously, only political opponents used to be the target of corruption charges. Now loyalists seem vulnerable too.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – As part of a tour of Central Asia, Swiss President Didier Burkhalter travelled to Uzbekistan. This was a rare trip to Uzbekistan by a Western leader, who are keen to avoid the Uzbek stigma of human rights abuses.
In a meeting, Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Mr Burkhalter discussed “mutual ties, the situation in the world, bilateral business relations and international organizations’ roles,” the official Uzbek media dryly report.
Although little official information is available about Mr Burkhalter’s visit, it is clear the Uzbek side had a few topics to discuss with him.
One issue was the $1b sitting in Swiss bank accounts that allegedly belongs to Gulnara Karimova, the Uzbek president’s daughter. Swiss banks froze that money after prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into suspected money laundering activities.
Ms Karimova is believed to be under house arrest in Tashkent, while other people the Swiss prosecutors wanted to interview have been jailed by Uzbek courts. The Uzbek side will probably use the Swiss president’s visit to attempt to salvage the frozen assets.
Another matter the official Tashkent would have been eager to discuss is the parliamentary elections in December, because Mr Burkhalter is also OSCE Chairperson- in-Office. The OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) sent a mission to Uzbekistan late October to assess elections monitoring needs. The ODIHR assessors recommend sending a limited observation mission due to a lack of competition.
Perhaps to incline Mr Burkhalter toward benevolence, President Karimov signed a decree on introducing amendments to a Swiss-Uzbek agreement on avoiding double taxation.
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The deputy head of Tajikistan’s National Security Council, Akram Amonov, said there were around 300 Tajiks fighting in Syria for the extremist Islamic State group, more than previously thought. Mr Amonov said that most travel to Syria through Afghanistan or Moscow.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank said it was prepared to spend millions of dollars propping up its currency, the dram, despite increased pressure to devalue.
Like other currencies across the South Caucasus and Central Asia region, falling oil prices and a devaluation in Russian rouble are pressuring the dram.
On Monday, Nov. 24, the dram was trading at 435 to $1, down 4% from Friday.
“The Central Bank reserves are enough to prevent any artificial fluctuations of the rate and secure financial stability,” the Central Bank said in a statement.
Perhaps but the warning signs are increasing and even the Central Bank’s statement smacks of desperation.
In the last three weeks, Reuters reported, the Armenian Central Bank has spent over $60m defending its currency.
Armenia is tied into Russia, politically, economically and emotionally. It has agreed to join the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union in January and Russian business virtually runs the economy.
With oil prices and the rouble falling further it can only be a matter of time before currencies such as the dram also tumble again.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
BAKU/Azerbaijan, NOV. 26 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kamal Hasanov is the owner of small tea house in a back street of Baku. His thick eyebrows and grey hair make him appear older than his 42 years. As a war veteran he’s holds particularly strong views on the Armenian helicopter shot-down by Azerbaijan on November 12.
“My TV set here is always on,” he said. “We come together for every news bulletin to see what’s going in Garabagh (Azerbaijani new for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh). The helicopter incident made us even angrier at Armenians. Why did they dare to fly over our territory? What’s there purpose? They well-deserved this lesson.”
Baku said the helicopter was probing Azerbaijani defences along the frontline, while Armenia insists it was on a training mission. The truth, as is usual around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, is hard to decipher but, wherever it lies, the incident has triggered one of the most serious crises between Azerbaijan and Armenia for years.
In Azerbaijan, there was an air of triumph. On social media some people changed their profile pictures to the photo of the officer who shot downed the helicopter.
Vahid Guliyev, 28, was drinking tea. He said that he was sorry for the incident and for the officers who died, but that it was the fault of the Armenian government. “Armenia should be more careful,” he said.
Gulzar Muradova, 54, said he hoped the incident would not provoke conflict. He said: “Armenia should consider that Azerbaijan’s military budget is growing but, of course, nobody wants war.”
However, some people are expecting Armenia to retaliate. Arzu Quliyeva, 34, said that even if Armenia decided to retaliate, was within its rights to shoot down the helicopter. He said: “Why should the helicopter come that close? Isn’t there enough space in Armenia for training sessions?”
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
