Category Archives: Uncategorised

The myth of radical Islam in Central Asia

LONDON/United Kingdom, DEC. 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Western security analysts over-hype the impact of radical Islam on Central Asia, a new paper by two academics said.

The paper, published by the London-based think tank Chatham House and written by John Heathershaw of Exeter University and David Montgomery of Pittsburgh University, said that there were six key areas where myths on the impact of radical Islam had been wrongly propagated.

There wrongly propagated myths were: There is a post-Soviet Islamic revival; to Islamicise is to radicalise; authoritarianism and poverty cause radicalisation; underground Muslim groups are radical; radical Muslim groups are globally networked; political Islam opposes the secular state.

“The paper demonstrates that while the six claims are made consistently in secular security discourse (with one exception) they are not justified in practice,” Mr Heathershaw and Mr Montgomery wrote.

The paper chose to study reports written by the respected Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) over the last five years. The paper uses ICG reports because it, rightly, described the ICG as the most consistent and serious on the region.

“Once one sees through the myth of post-Soviet Muslim radicalization, it is possible to see that there is nothing essential to former Soviet Central Asia that generates religious radicalisation,” the report said.

This research is important because the spectre of Muslim radicalism is used so often in the discourse by leaders in Central Asia to justify clamp-downs in human rights and media. It also forms, as this paper describes, an important part of the prism through which the West views Central Asia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Inflation rises in Kazakhstan, again

DEC. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan is beginning to edge up to the psychologically important double digit zone. The Kazakh statistics committee said prices rose by 0.7% in November after a 0.5% increase in October.

This is a precarious position for the Kazakh Central Bank. Annualised inflation already measures 7.6%. It won’t be long, if the current trend continues, until it hits 10%.

The problems are two two-fold and well-known — Russia and the drop in the price of oil.

These two issues have combined to produce something of an economic storm for Kazakhstan. And its options are limited. The Central Bank devalued — without warning — its tenge currency by 20% in February. For its currency to retain any credibility, it has had to pledge to protect it from further devaluation.

There is already a lot of economic uncertainty in Kazakhstan. Rising inflation is adding to that.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Armenian lecturers quit

DEC. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Roughly 120 university lecturers in Armenia born since 1974 have quit their jobs because of government plans to change the pension system, the London-based NGO Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) said. IWPR said this equalled about a quarter of the total number of university academics under the age of 45 in Armenia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Rouble slide hits Kazakh industry

NOV. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The depreciation of the Russian rouble has hit Kazakhstan’s energy sector, media reported.

Kazakh media said Samruk-Energo, the state-owned energy company, had cancelled rouble-denominated contracts with Russian clients.

“We have suspended power supplies over the lingering Russia’s currency devaluation. Supplies are no longer economically viable for Kazakhstan-based power plants. Loss of the markets is an important issue,” media quoted Almasadam Satkaliyev, head of Samruk-Energo, as saying.

This is important as it shows how Kazakh industry is beginning to lose out from a depreciating rouble. It’s an issue that could threaten to upset otherwise close relations between the two neighbours.

Kazakhstan has signed up to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and has a host of other friendly treaties in place.

The problem is that the Kazakh Central Bank has pledged not to devalue its currency after knocking 20% off its value earlier this year. This means that Kazakhstan will have to look elsewhere to sell its power or accept a vastly reduced price.

Mr Satkaliyev also said that Kazakhstan was looking to replace coal supply contracts with Russian clients.

“Russia’s economy is not ready to import Kazakhstan’s coals at higher prices. Russia has adopted a program to replace Kazakhstan’s coal,” he said.

“A second factor is the continuing devaluation of the Russian rouble. All the contracts rely on the Russian rouble; therefore for the Kazakh side it is of great importance to ensure economic viability of supplies.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Kyrgyz inflation rises

DEC. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The devaluation of the manat, the Kyrgyz currency, and slowing economic growth have combined to push inflation in Kyrgyzstan up to 8.5%, the World Bank said in a report quoted widely by local media. The World Bank also said that it expected inflation to keep rising towards 10%. This could mean social trouble.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran train to launch

DEC. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani flew to Ashgabat for separate bilateral talks with Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov as well as for the long-awaited inauguration of a new railway that will connect the three countries.

The inauguration ceremony for the 935km Ozen-Bereket- Gorgan line is due on Dec. 3. It will vastly reduce travel time and, it is hoped, boost north-south trade.

“This route will permit the region’s development and prosperity,” Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was quoted by media as saying. “This event will go down in the history of our countries.”

A statement from Mr Nazarbayev’s office said they thought the railway route would increase trade by three- fold.

Predictions of trade increases generated by the new railway are, by their very nature during this period of economic uncertainty, difficult to gauge. What is more certain, though, is that Central Asia’s links with Iran will improve further.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Bolivia passes Armenia genocide denial declaration

NOV. 26 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bolivia’s parliament passed a law condemning denial of the alleged genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turks a century ago.

Although Bolivia hasn’t made genocide denial a crime, the statement will be seen as a diplomatic victory by Armenia. It has been locked in a long-running row with Turkey over the allegations of genocide. Turkey denies the allegations and says that Armenians died in confused fighting in eastern Turkey.

Media quoted the resolution passed by the Bolivian parliament as saying: “It declares its firm commitment to human rights, truth, justice, solidarity and condemnation against all denialist policy regarding the genocide and crimes against humanity suffered by the Armenian nation.”

The declaration may be clear but the motivation behind it is far less clear. Armenia and Bolivia haven’t particularly strong ties and it may simply be a piece of posturing by the Bolivian parliament. Still, Armenia is short of friends and happy to take any vote of support.

Turkish-Armenian relations also caught the attention of Pope Francis this week during his three-day trip to Turkey.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Remittances for Tajikistan fall

DEC. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A sharp downturn in Russia’s economy has squeezed migrants, particularly from Tajikistan which is so heavily dependent on remittances, Reuters reported. Reuters highlighted one migrant worker who said that he had been paid 25,000 roubles ($536) a month but that this had been cut to 15,000 roubles.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Former Georgian minister takes role in Ukraine

DEC. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko appointed a former health minister under ex-Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, an arch foe of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, to his government.

Alexander Kvitashvili served as health minister under Mr Saakashvili from 2008 until 2010 and will now take over the same post in Mr Poroshenko’s government.

Although Mr Kvitashvili will not head a high-profile department it is nonetheless significant. Russia’s President Putin reviles Mr Saakashvili, Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008, and any link between the current Ukraine government and the former Georgian government will probably irk him.

“I’ve been working on reforms in Ukraine for the last three months, but my love for this country has a much longer history,” Mr Kvitashvili said.

He has now taken Ukrainian citizenship.

Ukraine’s government is currently fighting a civil war in the east of the country. It has accused Russia of supply weapons and soldiers to the rebels.

Mr Saakashvili, currently living in New York, also said that he had turned down a post in Mr Poroshenko’s government. He said Mr Poroshenko had offered him the post of deputy PM but that he had turned down the position because he didn’t want to renounce his Georgian citizenship.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)

Azerbaijan passes budget rise

NOV. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s parliament approved a government budget for 2015 that contains a 5.7% spending increase despite global oil prices continuing to fall (Nov. 28).

The Azerbaijani government agreed on its budget when oil was averaging around $90/barrel.

It is now closer to $70/barrel and some commentators said the government was taking a huge risk by not reducing its expenditure.

Economist Natig Jafarli a senior figure in Azerbaijan’s opposition group said: “The country’s economy depends on oil at $66 directly and $80 indirectly. They should have had developed non-oil sector too and they haven’t.”

Mr Jafarli’s references to direct and indirect incomes for the government’s budget is to cash paid in directly by the National Oil Fund and cash from taxes and other duties paid indirectly by oil companies and exporters.

And he may have a point. Certainly the IMF agrees.

In a report last month, the IMF said that Azerbaijan’s economy was particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices because of its excessive decency on it.

Other opposition figures said that they expected social problems next year because of a budget squeeze triggered by the falling oil prices.

If opposition and international economists’ claims that Azerbaijan is over-dependent on oil are correct then the current global oil price squeeze will leave it, and the government’s 2015 budget, exposed.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)