OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia will keep its interest rate at 10.25% or higher in the medium term to beat rising inflation and maintain stability, media quoted Nerses Yeritsyan, deputy chairman of Armenia’s Central Bank, as saying. Regional pressures have dented economic growth across the S.Caucasus.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In the past few months of tumbling oil prices, analysts have discussed Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and debated whether they could keep oil production steady.
The PRIX index, a young and fully independent barometer of the 20 major oil exporting countries, forecasts a fall in oil exports in Q4 2015 for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, a stark change after a positive forecast in Q3 2015.
PRIX’s methodology is simple, as it collects forecasts on oil exports from around 300 analysts around the world. It has rapidly gained credibility due to the volume of data it generates.
John Friedman, analytical advisor at PRIX, said: “We’re still in a bear market for oil.”
He noted that exporters do not yet want to give in and cut exports despite low oil prices.
Indra Overland, project director at PRIX, said the situation in Azerbaijan was particularly worrisome.
“Oil production in Azerbaijan is clearly falling. This is due to resource depletion, though one could also argue that it is indirectly due to the unattractive climate for exploration and investment,” Mr Overland said.
Importantly, the PRIX index also highlights the agreement, or lack thereof, between the surveyed analysts. It is interesting to note that disagreement among analysts covering Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan has risen significantly, as oil prices and export data keep falling.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan is on target to produce 17.3m tonnes of grain this year, up from the 17.1m tonnes produced last year, media reported quoting the agriculture ministry. Grain has become an important export commodity for Kazakhstan. The ministry also said it is trying to find more clients for its grain in SE Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 28 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s ministry of defence accused Armenian backed forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh of killing three Azerbaijani soldiers. The accusation marks another escalation in tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of killing civilians last week.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian utilities company Inter RAO sold Armenia’s electricity network for an undisclosed amount to the Moscow-based Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. The deal has come as a surprise.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 30 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Real estate prices in the Georgian capital have fallen by 15% this year, a drop that industry insiders blame on the collapse in the value of the lari currency.
In an interview with The Conway Bulletin, Anna Jalagonia, president of the Georgian Association of Realtors, said a 40% fall in the lari since last summer had spooked foreign investors.
“Investors prefer to wait because of the unstable situation in the country,” she said.
This bodes badly for Georgia, whose economy is to a large extent dependent on foreign investment.
Like the rest of the region, a slump in oil prices and the sluggish economic performance of Russia, the region’s main driver, has undermined Georgia’s economy. The Central Bank has spent millions of dollars trying to protect the value of the lari, inflation is rising and GDP growth rates are being revised down.
Neli Goguadze, director of the real estate agency Kibe, said that the situation in Georgia’s real estate sector had reached a tipping point.
“The problems began a few months ago due to the devaluation of the national currency,” she said. “For there to be a revival, the market needs a serious boost.”
Last month, the Central Bank increased its key interest rate to 7%, it’s highest rate since December 2011, as it tried to support the lari.
But some real estate analysts said that this interest rate increase may actually cause more problems.
“Real estate transactions are usually made in US Dollars,” said Papuna Kokhtashvili, owner of the Georgian franchise of US-based RE/MAX Property Advisors. “The increase in interest rate for loans results in a reduction of demand for property.”
And is could get worse, as Ms Jalagonia of the Association of Realtors explained during her interview.
“At the end of the year the situation will be worse as the national currency rate will continue to influence the market and winter and the fall are usually slow times for real estate acquisition. That combined will be a problem,” she said. “Prices for residential real estate have already fallen by about 15% and will continue to decline.”
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 1 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s ministry of education ordered the Metkep publishing house to redraw a map used in one of its textbook which suggested Crimea was part of Russia.
Like most countries, Kazakhstan has not officially recognised Russia’s annexation of Crimea after a referendum last year in which the majority of people voted to leave Ukraine.
The Ukrainian embassy in Astana last week complained about the map in the school textbook, embarrassing the Kazakh government which needs to tread a fine diplomatic line between Russia and West.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
OCT. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan prosecutor-general Zakir Garalov accused a handful NGOs of straying outside the boundaries of their work permits and cooperating with journalists. Mr Garalov didn’t name the NGOs but the accusations could be interpreted as a warning ahead of a crackdown.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
SEPT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shangfeng Cement, a Chinese cement producer, aims to raise 1.5b yuan ($235m) to fuel its expansion into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The two projects Shangfeng plans in Central Asia both have a capacity to produce 3,200 tonnes of cement per day and will cost around $130m. Shangfeng plans to sell its cement in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and northern Afghanistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
ASTANA/ Kazakhstan, OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Just when the crowd began to think that it was all over, the ball slipped into the back of Galatasaray’s net. The Astana Arena, with 30,000 FC Astana fans inside, shook with celebration.
The third own-goal of a mad and exciting match sealed a 2-2 draw for FC Astana in the first ever Champions League football game played in Central Asia.
Incredulous FC Astana fans were besides themselves with joy at the unexpected result.
“I am not keen on football, but when there are games like this, I turn into a real football-freak” said Bota, a 27- year-old FC Astana fan. On her nails she had painted the Kazakh flag.
The atmosphere at the Astana Arena, a state-of-the-art stadium with synthetic grass and retractable roof, was electric and very patriotic. The 30,000 FC Astana fans were dressed in blue-and-yellow, the colours of Kazakhstan’s flag. They didn’t stop singing and chanting for the whole 90 minutes.
In Kazakhstan’s Premier League many seats are empty but not for this match against Istanbul’s Galatasary. On the pitch FC Astana were not just representing the Kazakh capital, they were representing the entire country.
“This game is a way to prove that we are not Boratstan,” said Bota in a reference to the fictional comic character called Borat. “We have a lot of things to show and be proud of.”
Kazakh fans hadn’t forgotten that Galatasaray forward Lukas Podolski tweeted a picture of Borat after his team were drawn in the same group as FC Astana. Every time he touched the ball, they booed.
FC Astana is essentially a state club, part of the President’s Sport Club Astana alongside an ice hockey and cycling team, and financed by the national fund Samruk-Kazyna.
And this historic football match helped distract many people from the increasing economic gloom. Perhaps with some irony, one of the FC Astana chants was “We believe in Astana. We do not care about devaluation.”
Whether they qualify or not for the next round of the Champions League, FC Astana will also host Atletico Madrid and Portugal’s Benfica this year.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)
