OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Scotland-based Wood Group won a service contract to supply an automated system for crude storage facilities at the Tengiz oil field in Western Kazakhstan. It said the automated system would increase storage capacity. Bechtel, a US-based engineering company, signed the multimillion dollar deal with Wood Group.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — A Kazakh government bail-out for hundreds of thousands of savers who hold tenge denominated deposits hit by a currency devaluation in August could cost the state around $420m, according to the Bulletin’s calculations.
The bail-out adds to the lengthening bill that the Kazakh state is having to foot to weather a worsening economic storm that has hit the Central Asia and South Caucasus region.
It has spent billions of dollars propping up its currency and also said that it will give handouts and tax breaks to key industries heavily effected by the economic downturn such as car-makers and smaller oil producers.
And in an effort to shore up support immediately after the devaluation on Aug. 20, President Nursultan Nazarbayev said savers would be compensated for losses incurred when the Central Bank ditched the tenge’s peg to the US dollar and allowed it to drop heavily.
Now, at a press conference in Almaty, Alexander Trentyev, director of the consumer protection department at the Central Bank, for the first time hinted at the bill that the government was facing.
“The compensation will cover the period August 18 2015 to September 30 2016. Over 1.7m accounts totalling around 250b tenge are eligible for the government aid,” media quoted him as saying.
The tenge is currently trading at around 275/$1, a drop of around 46% from its value of 188/$1 just before the devaluation on Aug. 20. This means that the 250b tenge in bank deposits will convert to 365b tenge and cost the government $420m in compensation. Of course, though, as analysts have said, the tenge could well drop further in value before Sept. 30.
But there is a flip-side for savers. Their accounts will be frozen for 13 months until Sept. 30 2016.
This measure appears to have been adopted to prevent customers from rushing to withdraw their savings and turning them into US dollars after they received compensation.
It will also keep a high level of tenge in the currency markets, a policy the Central Bank has said that it favours.
What the authorities are desperate to avoid during this period of economic turbulence is civil unrest. The bail-out of savers appears designed to ward this off.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF said that rising inflation in Azerbaijan was a growing risk and the Central Bank said that its currency reserves had fallen to their lowest level for nearly four years, more data that points to a worsening outlook for the Azerbaijani economy.
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that inflation would measure 5% this year in Azerbaijan, a reflection of the pressure prices have been under since February when the Central Bank devalued its manat currency by 33%.
And so are the Central Bank’s declining currency reserves.
These have fallen to just over $7b at the end of September from $7.3b in August, its lowest level since November 2011 when it was recovering from the 2008/9 Global Financial Crisis.
It’s been a steep, fast fall. At the end of 2014, Azerbaijan’s currency reserves were nearly double at $13.7b.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant will shut down in two stages in 2017-2018 as part of a planned modernisation of the plant, the Armenian government said. The ministry of energy had planned one 6- month long closure in 2017, but pressure on electricity prices have forced the government to split the period into two phases.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
BISHKEK/Kyrgyzstan, OCT. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Parliamentary elections in Kyrygzstan on Oct. 4 may be being lauded around the world as a great success for democracy in a region normally more closely associated with dictatorship and the rule of the autocrat but in some circles the gloom is palpable.
And its many of Bishkek’s Western-oriented youth who are the most pessimistic. This was the group that rebelled most strongly against the edict that to register to vote you had to hand over your biometric data to the authorities.
Many decided that it was better to safeguard your personal data and lose the vote.
Sitting in a university canteen in Bishkek, a group discussed the election. None of them had voted and none of them regretted this.
“I do not regret that I did not go to elections because I knew who would win, it was the same people and parties as in the 2010 elections,” said 23-year old Syrgak Arkabayev, a student.
He also said that he would not submit his biometric data ahead of the 2016 presidential elections either.
And he’s not alone. An estimate said that up to a third of Kyrgyzstan’s population had also decided not to file their biometric data to the authorities. They said that the authorities can’t be trusted to safeguard the data.
But in any case, and this undermines the argument that democracy in Kyrgyzstan is in rude health, the dissenters said that there had been little motivation to vote in the election.
“I don’t think elections can change something in Kyrgyzstan,” said Gulzat Matisakova, 24.
Meerim Batyrkanova, 23, who helped an OSCE team to observe elections in Balykchy, a town on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul told a Bulletin correspondent that she was disappointed with the preliminary list of deputies who won seats at the election.
“Mostly, there are the same faces of deputies, ministers and state officials in the list,” she said. “There will be no big changes in politics.”
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Trade between Azerbaijan and Iran is growing, media quoted a senior official in its eastern province as saying, and it will continue to increase as Iran strengthens ties with Russia. Iran views Azerbaijan, increasingly, as a gateway to Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The US State Department said it was disturbed by reports that opposition TV channel Rustavi2 may be forced off the air after a court seized a stake in the company, cutting off access to funds that it said it needed to survive. The US has warned the Georgian Dream coalition government about eroding democracy and media freedom in Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) presented a plan to develop four airstrips, a move that it hopes will help boost domestic air travel. The GCAA said it was looking for partners to develop the sites which is said would thrive off Georgia’s growing economy and status as a tourist destination.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — State-owned Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation said it will explore Kazakhstan for mineral deposits. Preliminary investigations will be conducted, jointly with Kazakhstan’s state-owned company Kazgeologiya, in 2016. Japan has bought large amounts of oil from Kazakhstan this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian carmaker AvtoVAZ will build two new models of its Lada brand in Kazakhstan starting in 2017. AvtoVAZ said its plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk, east Kazakhstan, will receive investments for around $840m.
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)
