Category Archives: Uncategorised

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Georgian lari

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite all the reassuring declarations coming from Astana and the Central Bank in Almaty, volatility will be a constant for the Kazakh currency over the next months. There is just no getting away from it.

On Wednesday, Kairat Kelimbetov, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank chief, said 277.5 tenge/ $1 is an acceptable rate as long as oil prices float around $50 per barrel. Already on Friday, Brent prices fell to $48 and the tenge followed to 278.2. Over the past fortnight it has lost 1.5% against the US dollar.

Other currencies fared better this week, maintaining their value. The Georgian lari was steady at 2.39/$1 and even the Kyrgyz som had a calm week below 69/$1.

Rumours of devaluation are more worrisome in Uzbekistan, where the sum is officially stable at around 2,663/$1, but the website dollaruz.com said informal rates on the Black Market are hitting over 5,700 sum/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Armenia’s foreign trade slows

OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s foreign trade turnover dropped 20% in the first eight months of the year, its national statistics office said. The data is more evidence of the economic slowdown that has hit the South Caucasus over the past year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Economic crisis worse than 2008/9, says Kazakh President

OCT. 19 2015, ASTANA (The Conway Bulletin) — In a rare candid assessment of the economic storm battering Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said the outlook for Kazakhstan’s economy was now worse than it had been during the 2007-9 Global Financial Crisis.

Mr Nazarbayev’s comments, made during a meeting with Kazakh PM Karim Massimov and published on the Presidential website, were the most candid so far by one of the region’s leaders.

And any comparison with the dark days of 2007-9, when the economies of Kazakhstan and its neighbours reversed nearly a decade of sharp growth, will hit a nerve.

“Our people must know the current situation, profits at businesses are dropping, income is falling and there is the possibility of job losses,” he said.

“This is a real crisis — more powerful than in 2007-2009.”

In 2006, according to World Bank data, Kazakhstan had been powering along and enjoying GDP growth of over 10%.

This dipped to 9% in 2007 before falling in 2008 to around 3% and in 2009 to just over 1%.

Consumers and mortgage holders defaulted on debt repayments in 2008-9 and Kazakhstan’s government had to buy up bankrupt banks. Although the Kazakh economy has recovered, the experience left deep financial and psychological scars.

And the crash this time has been just as sudden as the 2007-9 Global Financial Crisis.

In 2007-9, sub-prime mortgages in the US started the rout. This time, a sudden fall in oil and commodity prices and a loss of confidence in Emerging Markets, including in China, have been the triggers.

Currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus have fallen by around 40%, inflation is rising and trade volumes falling.

Kazakhstan has built up cash reserves from oil and gas sales but Mr Nazarbayev said that, although social programmes would be supported, businesses would not be bailed out.

“Companies should not expect the State to give them the means to survive. This will not happen,” he said.

Other leaders across Central Asia and the South Caucasus may not have been as forthright as Mr Nazarbayev on the economic outlook but they are facing the same stormy conditions.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Azerbaijan to finance solar plants in Germany and Turkey

OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Akim Badalov, head Azerbaijan’s State Agency on Renewable Energy sources, said Azerbaijan will finance the construction of two small solar power plants in Germany and Turkey. The capacity of the prospective solar plant in Germany is 10 megawatts, according to the Trend news agency. Although still marginal, Azerbaijan’s interest in renewable energy has grown steadily in recent years.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Japanese PM begins Grand Tour of Central Asia with stopover in Turkmenistan

OCT. 23 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Japanese PM Shinzo Abe began a tour of the five Central Asian Stans designed to boost links with the region.

The trip started in Turkmenistan, where Mr Abe signed deals worth over $18b in the chemical and power sectors.

This was the first official visit by a Japanese PM to Turkmenistan, proof of the country’s growing status as a global energy exporter.

Stopovers in Dushanbe and Bishkek will also mark the first official visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan for a Japanese leader.

Central Asia has been attracting high-profile interest from Asian leaders over the past few years. In 2013, China’s President Xi Jinping completed a similar Grand Tour of the region and this year Indian PM Narendra Modi also visited all five Stans.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Japan equips Turkmen gas field

OCT. 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Several Japanese companies signed a framework agreement with the Turkmen government to supply equipment to the Galkynysh gas field, one of the largest in the world. Mitsubishi, Chiyoda, Sojits, Itochu and JGC are among the companies involved in the expansion of Galkynysh. Turkmenistan wants to expand Galkynysh to pump gas along a planned pipeline to India.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Kazakh labour figures down

OCT. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Over 11,000 people lost their jobs in Kazakhstan in the first nine months of the year, the ministry of social development said. The ministry monitors only a sample of private businesses, so the total numbers could be larger, according to Radio Free Europe. A chart produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit showed that the overall size of the Kazakh labour force is shrinking.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

S&P drops Kazakh Kashagan

OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – International ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said it will stop including the Kashagan oil field in its economic forecasts for Kazakhstan because of continuous delays in production.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Chinese hotel opens in Georgia

OCT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Hualing Georgia, a private Chinese holding, opened its first luxury hotel in Tbilisi Sea New City, a new urban development on the shores of an artificial lake near Georgia’s capital city. Hualing has invested $150m in Tbilisi Sea New City, including $73m in the hotel. China been investing heavily in the S.Caucasus.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

VimpelCom sells kit in Kazakhstan, Armenia

OCT. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian telecoms company VimpelCom said it is selling 50,000 phone towers across the former Soviet Union for $5b. VimpelCom, headquartered in the Netherlands, hired several banks to broker the deal. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are among the countries involved in the deal.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)