OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) -Tajikistan has increased coal output by 22% in the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period last year. Coal production stands at 858,000 tonnes. Coal burning power stations are important for electricity generation and household heating.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In this current regional economic crisis, when currencies are stable it has to be positive.
The US Federal Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged, giving some more breathing room to currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
This was one of the first stable weeks for currencies in the region after heavy turbulence shook, ravished even, the markets.
The three free-floating currencies followed a similar pattern this week, weakening only marginally.
The Kazakh tenge lost just 0.5% of its value against the US dollar, ending at 279.2/$1 on Friday. The Kyrgyz som followed suit losing 0.7% of its value at 69.4/$1. The Georgian lari was stable at 2.39/$1.
In Tajikistan, the Central Bank said the somoni lost 30% of its value in the year to Sept. 2015. On Friday, it was stable at 6.62/$1.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Central Asia and the South Caucasus keep falling, a major problem for countries which are heavily reliant on cash sent back by workers in Russia. Think Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular.
Fresh data from the Russian Central Bank shows a fall of 12% in Q3 2015 compared to the same period last year for all countries in our region, except Georgia, which lies outside the Russian data.
For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, remittances from migrant workers are vital, accounting for around half of their GDP. Uzbekistan and Armenia are also heavily reliant on money transfers from Russia.
Remittances to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan showed a first sign of recovery in Q3, although their overall balance for 2015 remains negative, compared to 2014. According to the Kyrgyz Central Bank, the value of remittances this year has dropped by around $400m to $1b.
Similarly, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have lost as much as 35% of their remittances in the first nine months of 2015.
From rock bottom, it can only get better. Figures from the next two quarters will likely show a growth in the value of remittances, because the benchmark they will be measured against is the nadir of the crisis of last winter.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia said it would not block Armenia signing an agreement with the European Union that will deepen bilateral relations.
This is important because the deal has been drawn up to replace the Association Agreement that Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan ducked out of signing at the last moment two years ago.
Back then the West accused Russia of interfering by giving Armenia sweeteners to ditch the EU for the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union, which is joined this year. The Kremlin pulled a similar trick with Ukraine, although this led to a public outpouring of anger, street demonstrations and, eventually, a revolution.
Russian news agencies quoted Vasily Nebenzya, a Russian deputy foreign minister, saying that the Kremlin would not try to stop the deal this time.
“I think that [the planned EU-Armenia accord] does not contradict partnership with the Russian Federation,” he said.
The deal that Armenia and the EU hope to sign this year is not as deep as the Association Agreement of 2013 was intended to be but it is an important step for EU-Armenia relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratcheting up tension between Georgia’s PM and President, former PM and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili said in a TV interview that he made a mistake selecting Giorgi Margvelashvili as his presidential candidate in an election in 2013.
Mr Ivanishvili’s comments came shortly after President Margvelashvili met with several senior public figures, including an opposition leader and the powerful head of the Georgian Orthodox Church to discuss Georgia’s worsening political climate and a clampdown on opposition broadcaster Rustavi 2.
“The President’s remarks are completely irresponsible,” Mr Ivanishvili said of Mr Margvelashvili. “People who make such statements, want to justify the United National Movement’s actions. Those who make such statements, support UNM.”
The UNM is the party of former president Mikheil Saakashvili.
Although not officially in office any more, Mr Ivanishvili bankrolls the Georgian Dream ruling coalition and is considered the kingpin of Georgian politics. PM Irakli Garibashvili is very much his protege while President Margvelashvili is considered an increasing irritation.
Ghia Nodia, a political professor at Ilia State University and an opponent of Georgian Dream, said Mr Ivanishvili’s remarks were dangerous.
“This obsession with UNM and the inability to think in a nuanced manner are toxic and show a hidden complex. It is sad that he is unable to realise this,” he said.
Mr Margvelashvili, a former education minister, was regarded as having little political ambition before being put forward as a presidential candidate by Mr Ivanishvili in 2013. Most observers said he was supposed to act as a puppet. Instead he has become a thorn in side of Mr Ivanishvili.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The South Caucasus and Central Asia might be looking at a long term economic crisis, the IMF said, sending a chill down the spines of the region’s investors.
After the shock of the 2008/9 financial crisis, countries across the region picked up pace and restored the steady growth pattern they had witnessed in the early 2000s.
But the current crisis, which Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev called worse than the 2008/9 financial crunch, could linger on for longer than expected because of its ripple effects on the Russian economy, the IMF said.
Lower oil prices have affected hydrocarbon exporters from the region – big and small, private and state. Several exploration and production projects have become unprofitable and revenues have lost value. The IMF forecast a break- even price of around $60/barrel or higher for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. If oil prices are lower, debt will grow and reserves will shrink.
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, had been forecasted to be better off due to lower oil prices, but the fall in the rouble has reduced the value of their remittances and pressured currencies.
And the IMF had a message. Reform is the only option, it said.
“The long-lasting nature of the shocks means that deeper and more durable policy changes will be needed,” Juha Kähkönen, deputy director of the IMF in Almaty said.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh government could impose a $2b penalty on the consortium operating the Karachaganak gas field, Bloomberg News quoted sources as saying.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Hit by delays in infrastructure maintenance, London-listed Nostrum Oil & Gas reduced its production target for 2015 by 9% to 41,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In its Q3 statement, Nostrum said repair work at a Kazakh state-owned gas export pipeline was now complete and production was back to normal.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — US’ Microsoft launched a new so- called acceleration programme for start-up companies at its Innovation Centre in Armenia. People working on 14 new projects selected for the programme will receive in- depth training in California, Australia and Russia. Armenia has been looking to attract increased investment from tech start-ups over the past few years and has brokered various deals with Microsoft.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan said for the first time that it could join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union. At a press conference in Baku, deputy economy minister Sevinj Hasanova said: “We are analysing how our participation in the World Trade Organisation is useful. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s joining the EEU or other organisations should be analysed.”
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
