Category Archives: Uncategorised

Inflation rises in Georgia, again

DEC. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Year-on-year inflation in Georgia rose to 6.3% from 5.8%, the national statistics agency said, its highest level for four years. Although the year-on-year rate is rising, the month-on-month rate has slowed to 0.3% from 0.8% in October and 1.1% in September. Like other economies, Georgia’s currency has lost value this year, pushing up the cost of imports.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Currencies: Kyrgyzstan’s som, Tajikistan’s somoni

DEC. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz som continued its slump against the dollar and now trades at above 75.5/$1. The Central Bank chairman Tolkunbek Abdygulov said the exchange rate had changed because of a speculative attack and promised to continue to intervene to prop up the currency. The regulator said that local bank FinanceCredit was found guilty of speculative trading of the som. In addition, the Central Bank fined several exchange points across the country for speculating on currency rates.

In Tajikistan, the somoni was stable at 6.7/$1, after a rough week. On Nov. 30, media reported that Dushanbe residents had to pay around 7.5somoni for $1. The Central Bank reacted by drafting a decree that shut down the remaining private exchange bureaus in the country. Earlier in April, it had forced the closure of over 800 out of a total of 1,500 exchange bureaus because it said they were taking advantage of the unstable currency markets.

On Dec. 1, the Central Bank also reported the arrest of six employees of exchange bureaus for currency speculation. As with the Kyrgyz incidents, the details of these so-called speculative attacks have been difficult to pin down.

But none of this is surprising in Central Asia’s currency markets.

We witnessed a similar trend in Kazakhstan in 2014, when a devaluation of the tenge was followed by speculative attacks on the currency and interventions to keep the tenge from plummeting. This was repeated this year again in Kazakhstan.

It is likely that both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will follow this trend and crack down on private exchange bureaus to strengthen their control over exchange rates.

In much of the rest of the region, currencies did not move. The exception was Uzbekistan. The Uzbek sum reached a new record trading low, officially, at 2,755/$1. In the last year, it lost almost 15% of its value.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Georgian police arrests 4 ‘IS sympathisers’

DEC. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgian security forces arrested four men in a village in the west of the country who they said were planning various terrorist attacks, one week after the extremist group IS called for a revolution in Georgia.

The deputy head of Georgia’s security services, Levan Izoria, said that the arrests were made during a search of 11 houses.

“Information had been obtained identifying several individuals who support Islamic State ideology,” media quoted him as saying.

A photo taken after the arrests showed several heavily armed Georgian security forces personnel wearing combat uniforms leading four men in handcuffs.

Georgia is concerned about IS using it as a transit country to send recruits to Syria. IS recruits travelling to Syria have flown to Tbilisi and then travelled west to the border with Turkey. From there they can reach Syria. Since an attack in Paris last month that killed 130 people Georgia has boosted its border controls.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Kazakhstan opens $1.2b gas pipeline

DEC. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s Kaztransgas, the state- owned pipeline monopoly, opened a third pipeline pumping gas to China, highlighting Chinese dominance over Central Asia’s energy resources.

Line C will bring the total capacity of the Kazakhstan-China pipeline to 55b cubic metres of gas a year. The Kazakhstan-China pipeline is part of

the 1,300km pipeline network that spans Central Asia. Its main purpose is to pump Turkmen gas to China, although Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also contribute.

The pipeline cost $1.2b to build and was described by Kaztransgas as the biggest infrastructure project in independent Kazakhstan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Armenian gold project go-ahead

DEC. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Toronto-listed Lydian International said it had secured the $325m finance needed to exploit a major gold deposit in Armenia. The deposit at Amulsar could transform Armenia’s economy.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

EBRD to boost activity in Armenia

DEC. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said that its priorities in Armenia over the next four years would be to improve small business competitiveness, develop local capital markets and improve public utilities. The EBRD is a major investor in Armenia with over $1b worth of investments.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Tajikistan extradites 2 men to Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The authorities in Tajikistan sent two Kyrgyz men to Kyrgyzstan for allegedly trying to recruit people to join the radical IS group in Syria and Iraq, media reported. Central Asian governments are worried about an increase in IS recruiting in the region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Lukoil ups Ubekistan’s production

DEC. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian oil company Lukoil said it increased both investment and production in Uzbekistan’s gas sector in the first nine months of 2015. Investment grew by 38% to $759m, compared to last year. Production rose to 4.7b cubic metres, up 26% from around 3.7b cubic metres last year. Lukoil is one of Uzbekistan’s biggest investors. Uzbekistan has said it wants to increase its gas production.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Kazakhstan faces lowest GDP growth since 1990s

DEC. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The World Bank predicted that Kazakhstan’s economy would grow at its slowest rate since the mid-1990s, four days after President Nursultan Nazarbayev tried to shrug off the worsening economic outlook by telling listeners during a state-of-the- nation speech that they have never had it so good.

Throughout the year economists at the World Bank have been down- grading growth rates in Kazakhstan but a new lower GDP growth estimate of 0.9% this year, smaller than growth rates in the 2008/9 global financial crisis, still came as a shock.

And worse was to follow. The World Bank said GDP growth would measure only 1.1% in 2016.

“The uncertain external outlook will dampen private investment, while the pass-through effect of the tenge depreciation will reduce house- hold consumption and public consumption will remain modest due to the ongoing fiscal adjustment.” the World Bank said in its report.

From 2017, the economic outlook would improve mainly thanks to the giant Kashagan oil field coming on- stream. But the warning signs are there.

If the World Bank’s outlook comes through, it’ll be the first time for over 20 years that growth in Kazakhstan has been so low for two consecutive years.

Three days earlier Mr Nazarbayev had tried to rally his countrymen in a televised state-of-the-nation speech that was filled with talk about toughing out the economic malaise.

He blamed factors outside his control for the economic downturn and then told his audience that they have never lived in such a prosperous period.

“Never before have our people lived as well as they do now,” he said. “We have achieved a lot.”

And Mr Nazarbayev needs to put a brave face on things. Inflation has jumped to around 10% and the value of the tenge currency has halved in the past 18 months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

China signs deal on Kazakh refinery

NOV. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – China Petroleum Engineering & Construction signed a deal with Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazmunaigas to modernise the oil refinery at Shymkent, south Kazakhstan. The upgrade will also mean the refinery’s capacity increases to 6m tonnes from 5.25m tonnes. Kazakhstan needs to increase its refinery capacity.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)