Category Archives: Uncategorised

Currencies: US dollar, Kazakh tenge

DEC. 16/18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In the weeks leading up to an interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday, Central Banks in the South Caucasus and Central Asia fretted about possible repercussion on their own currencies.

Janet Yellen, who chairs the Fed, said interest rates would go up by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed had postponed the decision for months and a rate increase was widely expected.

What will happen now to Emerging Markets? The US dollar will inevitably become more attractive to investors, which are likely to pull capital away from Emerging Markets back to the US.

The day after the rate increase, the value of the dollar grew by 1% against six major currencies. This, in turn, could further depress the price of commodities and pressure currencies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Shortly after the Fed’s decision, the Georgian Central Bank also raised its interest rates to 8%, up from a level of 7.5%. And the following morning the Central Bank of Azerbaijan issued a statement saying it expects the new rate to affect the currency markets in the region.

Kazakhstan had been on holiday while all this was happening, celebrating the 24th anniversary of its independence, but the impact on the Central Bank and the tenge have been tangible for weeks. The Central Bank twice skipped its monthly policy meetings in November and December, leaving analysts puzzled. On Friday, when Kazakhstan woke up from its festivities, the tenge hit an all-time low of 342.5/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Iran wishes expansion in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz

DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Iran ministry of energy said it may expand its activities in several international oil and gas fields, including Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan’s biggest gas project.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Armenian murder trial begins

DEC. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The trial has started of Valery Permyakov, a Russian conscript accused of killing seven members of the same family in January. The murders shocked Armenia and strained relations with Russia. Russia keeps a major military base in Armenia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

ADB drops Tajikistan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan rail project

DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut funding for a railway project that would have linked Tajikistan and Turkmenistan via Afghanistan because of a deterio- ration in security.

The decision will be a blow to various infrastructure projects in Central Asia that involve Afghanistan, including the high profile TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India and the CASA-1000 power transmission route running from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Pakistan.

“Although Turkmenistan has completed construction of its section of the railway, we would not like to construct a railway where security is not guaranteed. It’s very risky,” ADB’s country director C.C.Yu told media.

This year, the Taliban has increased its attacks in northern Afghanistan, at one point capturing the town of Kunduz near Tajikistan. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have all warned that security is worsening although, previously, infrastructure projects have not been postponed or delayed.

The railway route in question was supposed to run over 440km and bypass Uzbekistan, often considered a troublesome neighbour by Tajikistan in particular and Turkmenistan to a lesser extent.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Turkmenistan exports wheat to Afghanistan

DEC. 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – After visiting Ashgabat for talks with Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said he would buy 200,000 tonnes of wheat from Turkmenistan for the 2015-16 season. The deal would make Turkmenistan one of the main exporters of wheat to Afghanistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

ENA will be managed better by us, says Armenian billionaire

DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with local media, Samvel Karapetyan, the Moscow based billionaire who bought Armenia’s electricity distribution network earlier this year said that he thought the business could become profitable without massive states subsidies and, also, that he regarded himself as a long-term investor.

Mr Karapetyan had surprised people by buying ENA (Electrical Networks of Armenia) in September only a few weeks after thousands of protesters had demonstrated against proposed electricity prices rises. He bought ENA from Inter RAO UES, a Russian utilities company that wanted to exit the market.

“Electric Networks of Armenia is a good company and has been active for a long time and it will, now, become considerably better managed by us,” he said.

He scorned the suggestion that he’d been placed under pressure to buy the company or that he wanted to buy a major public company to help his brother, an MP, become PM.

Perhaps most importantly, Mr Karapetyan hinted that he wouldn’t be looking to raise prices for electricity soon.

“We aren’t thinking about margins yet. We will not be thinking about it for five years certainly.” he told the mediamax.am website.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Turkish President visits Turkmenistan

DEC. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked with Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. The talks had been planned earlier in the year but their timing was important as Mr Erdogan is trying to build support for Turkey in its row with Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

US and EU probes Azerbaijan’s human rights

DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The US and Europe piled more pressure on Azerbaijan over its human rights record. New Jersey representative Chris Smith introduced a bill in the US Congress that would ban Azerbaijani officials from receiving US visas. The Council of Europe also said it would check whether Azerbaijan is compliant with the European Convention on Human Rights.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Kazakhstan’s navy tests missile

DEC. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s navy has test fired for the first time an anti-aircraft missile from one of its warships in the Caspian Sea, eurasianet.org reported. Caspian Sea littoral states have been increasing their naval presence and armaments in the Caspian Sea over the past few years.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)

Swiss company seals deal with Azerbaijani pipeline project

DEC. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Swiss company ABB will provide the IT control infrastructure for the TANAP pipeline which will pump 16b cubic metres of gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey and link up with the Europe-bound gas grid (Dec. 15). ABB has already worked on telecoms systems for pipelines, notably with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. The company did not disclose the value of the contract. TANAP is considered vital to boosting European deliveries of Azerbaijani gas.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)