Category Archives: Uncategorised

Turkmen Pres. flies to Islamabad to boost bilateral ties and talk about TAPI

MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov flew to Islamabad for talks on the TAPI gas pipeline shortly after a high-level delegation from Tajikistan had met up with senior Pakistani officials, a sign of just how important Pakistan has become to Central Asian affairs.

According to reports from Islamabad, the talks between Mr Berdymukhamedov and Pakistani PM Sharif Nawaz were friendly and wide- ranging, focusing not just on the proposed TAPI gas pipeline that is supposed to run to India across Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The two leaders signed eight documents, on a number of different issues such as blocking funds to terrorism and fighting money laundering, and also praised progress on developing road links under the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

And this is important. The TAPI pipeline has brought Pakistan and Turkmenistan closer together, just as the CASA-1000 power transit route plan has brought it closer towards Tajikistan, facilitating discussions on a range of bilateral issues.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakh Parliament passes phedophile castration law

MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s parliament passed a law which will authorise officials to chemically castrate men convicted of paedophilia, AFP reported. Chemical castration is used in some countries although some human rights groups have criticised it. Without explaining why, Kazakhstan said that cases of paedophilia have doubled in the past four or five years and that it needs to increase the deterrent.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Directors of Tethys in Kazakhstan leave

MARCH 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As planned after the announcement of the deal with Olisol, two executives at Guernsey-based Tethys Petroleum will step down. John Bell and Alexander Abramov will now be co-non-executive chairmen. Mr Bell and three other directors said they will not seek re-election at the next general meeting at the end of May.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakhstan’s Ozenmunaigas hints at job losses

ALMATY, MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a thinly veiled warning, an official from the Mangistau government in west Kazakhstan said that Ozenmunaigas, a subsidiary of Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazmunaigas, could start cutting jobs to maintain profitability during the current economic downturn.

Elubai Abilov, representative of the local government, said that the company had not hired new staff since 2014 because it cannot afford to employ new workers.

He then said: “Ozenmunaigas will try to protect every job for its employees.”

Local analysts immediately read these comments as jobs being under threat, although there was no word from Ozenmunaigas itself.

In February, Maksat Ibagarov, Ozenmunaigas’ general director, had said: “We are not planning downsizing or wage cuts, but we are in a difficult situation. To be a profitable company, it is necessary to cut costs and increase oil production.”

Ozenmunaigas operates oil fields near Zhanaozen where riots killed at least 14 people in 2011. Employment is a highly sensitive matter at the company.

Last year, Kazmunaigas wrote off its Ozenmunaigas assets.

Kazmunaigas also said that during the first three quarters of last year Ozenmunaigas operated at a loss, as its average costs were around $65/barrel, while oil prices averaged $55/barrel.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Carrefour extends its presence in Georgia

MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The EBRD said it extended a $39.5m credit line to Majid Al Futtaim, the regional franchisee of French retailer Carrefour, to extend its presence in Georgia. Carrefour already has three stores in Georgia and said it wants to open new ones. Carrefour is also present in Armenia, where it owns one store, Tajikistan and also in Kazakhstan.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Power consumption falls in Kyrgyzstan

MARCH 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bakyt Torobayev, a Kyrgyz opposition MP, said that a drop in electricity consumption across the country proved that Kyrgyzstan’s economy was failing. He said that electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan had halved in the past year. Reports from Kyrgyzstan have said that many industries are struggling to cope with the sharp downturn in the economy.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Turkmen President hosts UAE Sultan

MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov hosted Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, state minister of the United Arab Emirates and director general of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, for talks in Ashgabat only a few days after he had met up with a senior member of the Qatari government. The two consecutive meetings in Ashgabat underline Mr Berdymukhamedov’s desire to open up a transit route south to the Persian Gulf. Turkmenistan sees itself as a regional gas producer and wants to reach new markets.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Business comment: Oil Rebounds

MARCH 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In less than two months, Brent oil prices shot up by around 40%, giving oil companies a boost after months of downward pressure.

According to industry specialists, oil prices should remain within the current corridor of $35-$40/barrel until the end of the year, with an upward outlook (see chart above).

An Asian energy markets expert told The Conway Bulletin confidentially that he believes oil prices might grow back up to three figures by 2020, a long-term bullish statement.

But in the meantime, oil- dependent economies in the South

Caucasus and Central Asia will continue to suffer.

Despite the rebound in oil prices, most of the fields in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will operate at a loss this year as well. And there is only a slim chance that the two Central Banks in Baku and Almaty will decide to weaken their currencies further in order to favour the export-oriented sectors of their economy.

Tengizchevroil, the consortium in charge of the Tengiz oil field in Western Kazakhstan has delayed a final investment decision on its expansion project. BP has said its fields in Azerbaijan will not show an increase in production in 2016.

The gas sector will also be impacted by oil prices in the medium term, as gas prices will also shrink, albeit moderately, for Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The decline of oil and gas prices has now almost reached its two- year anniversary and exporters will feel an increasingly stronger pressure from importers to give them subsidies and discounts, given the regional economic downturn that is affecting all countries in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Tajikistan and Russia flex muscles

MARCH 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and Russia held a massive military exercise, media reported, a show of force towards an increasingly aggressive Taliban. According to reports, the military exercise was the biggest ever held in Tajikistan. Russia and its allies have become increasingly wary of the Taliban spreading north.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakh Halyk Bank not to pay dividends

MARCH 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh lender Halyk Bank said it might not pay dividends for 2015 as the company expects a sharp decline in earnings this year. “The board is considering paying no dividend this year,” Dauren Karabayev, deputy CEO at the bank, was quoted by the FT as saying. Mr Karabayev was also not confident regarding the coming year for Kazakhstan’s economy. “2016 will not be a strong year,” he said. Halyk Bank is controlled by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara and her husband Timur Kulibayev, one of the country’s most high-profile businessmen.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)