JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The UN’s International Labour Organisation said that Kazakhstan has made little progress in implementing international standards in its labour legislation. In particular, the committee urged the government to amend the 2014 law on trade unions and the 2015 law on the chamber of entrepreneurs, which restrict workers’ freedom and independence.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia will meet in St. Petersburg later in June for a tripartite negotiation on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a source in the Russian foreign ministry told local media. Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Serzh Sargsyan met in Vienna in May and agreed to maintain the ceasefire over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where clashes erupted at the beginning of April.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Just days ahead of the 2016 UEFA European Championship, the Georgian football team beat reigning champions Spain 1-0 in a friendly match in Getafe, near Madrid. In its 26-year history, the Georgian football team has never qualified for the top European tournament. The victory against Spain is the country’s highest achievement in football.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh officials have been quick to blame Islamic militants for a series of attacks in Aktobe, northwest Kazakhstan, that killed at least 25 people.
This, if proved, would be alarming as it would confirm links in west Kazakhstan with Islamic militants in both the North Caucasus and Syria/Iraq. The Islamic militant explanation, though, would also help President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s narrative. He made it clear that if the Kazakh population didn’t support him they would be faced with a dystopian future.
And this version of events, of course, could be accurate, time will tell. But no group has taken responsibility and there is an alternative explanation.
Some analysts have said that the attacks were organised by disgruntled members of the Kazakh elite. Mr Nazarbayev, 75, is looking weak. He hasn’t organised a clear succession and is presiding over a worsening economy. By destabilising the country, a rival would be piling on the pressure.
This is the alternative explanation for the Aktobe attacks that the gov- ernment doesn’t want discussed.
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(Editorial from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A wave of mergers, acquisitions and privatisations has hit Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
At The Bulletin, we’ve extensively covered the Kazkommertsbank buyout over the past two years. But elsewhere, from Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan, the banking sector is in a restructuring phase.
A renovation of the financial sector had become crucial after an extended economic downturn hit the money markets, from currency exchange rates to loan sustainability. What’s more, low oil prices, besides depressing budget capacity and economic growth, have hindered investment and project financing.
From small local lenders to country-wide behemoths, banks across Central Asia and the South Caucasus have equally suffered, albeit for different reasons.
And since the beginning of 2016, small quakes have shaken the sector.
In Azerbaijan, immediately after the sharp depreciation of the manat, middle and small-sized banks were unable to maintain the newly set capital ratio requirements, triggering failures and mergers.
This week a rather obscure deal involving an Uzbek bank and a German plastics manufacturer marked the beginning of the new privatisation era in Uzbekistan.
And of course, across the border in Tajikistan, we are now three weeks into the care-taking administration of the country’s second-largest bank.
This is both a stress test and an opportunity. 25-year-old countries cannot afford to have a banking crisis every decade. Dependent as they are on commodity prices and regional trade, they need to seize this occasion to build more reliable and stable foundations for their finance sector.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili said income earned from the tourist industry reached $1.94b last year, 8.3% more than in 2014. According to Mr Kvirikashvili, the number of incoming tourists increased by 14% in the first five months of the year, compared to 2015. This is important for Georgia, where tourism is a major part of its economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Analysts in London are positive about copper producer Central Asia Metals, despite its shares hitting 144.5p, the lowest level in four months, on Thursday. It had traded at a high of around 170p.
Canaccord Genuity set a price target of 190p, in line with the majority of analysts who rate it a “buy”.
Central Asia Metals is a Kazakhstan-based copper producer, which had recently seen its share price rise after announcing positive results for 2015 and saying that its ambitious expansion was on schedule. Kenes Rakishev, a powerful Kazakh businessman and son-in-law of defence minister Imangali Tasmagambetov, is Central Asia Metals’ largest shareholder with 19%.
Other shareholders own 10% or less in the company. Mr Rakishev has actively diversified his investment portfolio in recent years buying Kazakhstan’s largest bank, Kazkommertsbank, and acquiring a minority stake in a discount retail chain.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ambassadors representing Germany, France and Italy at the European Union gave the strongest indication yet that Georgia would fail to win visa-free travel to Europe this year after they voted against the motion at a meeting in Brussels.
Perhaps reflecting wider concerns about allowing more migrants from Syria, Turkey and other countries to enter Europe, German politicians said they were against Georgia being given visa-free access because of worries over crime.
“Georgian asylum seekers are more heavily involved in organised crime than any other group of foreigners,” Armin Schuster, MP for the ruling CDU party, told the Der Spiegel magazine. This view was reflected at the ambassadors’ meeting.
Failing to win visa-free travel to Europe would be a major blow to the ruling Georgian Dream coalition only four months before what is likely to be a tight parliamentary election. Georgia wants to join the European Union and sees visa-free travel as a major step towards achieving that aim.
Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili told media that he was disappointed about the messages coming out of the European Union.
“Georgia has completed its own part and now it’s up to the European countries to take decision,” he was quoted as saying. “It’s not easy and we understand that, but all these issues, the migration crisis, internal challenges have nothing to do with Georgia’s technical readiness. We are ready institutionally, legislatively.”
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Electricity production in Azerbaijan shrank by 6.1% to 9.2b kWh last year, state-owned Azerenergy said in a statement. Power generation had decreased marginally in 2015 compared to the previous year. Electricity generation, especially from sources other than coal or gas, is one of the main priorities for Azerbaijan.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
JUNE 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Sergei Shiogu, the Russian defence minister, travelled to Turkmenistan for talks with Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, opening the door to improved military cooperation. Turkmenistan has long professed a policy of neutrality and has kept a distance from Russia-led military blocks in the region. Now Turkmenistan could be looking to import military kit from Russia, according to Russian media.
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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)
