Category Archives: Uncategorised

Kazakh economy looking stronger

ALMATY, SEPT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Higher oil prices, cost cuts and the anticipated start-up of the Kashagan oil project will allow the Kazakh government to reduce transfers from the sovereign wealth fund into the budget for the next three years, the ministry of economy said.

For Kazakhs, who have endured two years of economic woe, a heavy devaluation of the tenge and cost cutting, the assessment by the economy ministry that things are finally looking up will come as a relief.

Kuandyk Bishimbayev, minister of economy, appeared before parliament to propose amendments to the 206-2018 budget.

“We had planned the budget with an average oil price of $30/barrel in mind. Now, given the increase over the past few months and the apparent stability at $40/barrel, we should revise the forecast to $35/barrel,” he told parliament. “Every five additional dollars in oil prices give us additional revenue in the form of export customs duties.”

Mr Bishimbayev also highlighted the restart of the Kashagan oil project in the Caspian Sea. Kashagan, the Great White Hope of the Kazakh energy sector, is due to restart oil production at the end of the year after a three year hiatus while leaks to pipes were repaired.

Kazakhstan’s oil production, and therefore income, is due to ramp up as soon as Kashagan comes on- stream.

The original budget plan called for 2,880b tenge ($8.5b) to be shifted from the sovereign wealth fund into the government’s budget. The amended budget cut the transfers by 401b tenge ($1.2b) or 14%.

Unsurprisingly, parliament approved the amendments.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

China to build guard posts on Tajik-Afghan border

SEPT. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — China said that it would build a network of 11 guard posts and one border guard training camp on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, a physical statement of its growing power and influence in Central Asia.

This is the biggest investment yet in Central Asia’s security by China. Earlier in the year it said it would build one guard post on the 1,345km border. Tajik soldiers will man the guard posts.

Raffaello Pantucci, an analyst at the RUSI think tank in London said that China was increasingly worried about Central Asia’s porous borders and especially the threat from Afghanistan were Uyghur separatist fighters have become allied to the Taliban.

“This is interesting because this is not a border with China. They are worried about Afghan security and how security affects China, especially the Uyghurs,” he said.

China has increasingly imposed itself on Central Asia, funding major infrastructure projects, building gas pipelines and buying up metals and energy companies but, other than war games through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which China heads with Russia, it has always avoided a direct military link.

Its soldiers will not patrol the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border once the guard posts are built but it still embeds China deeper into the military psyche of Central Asian states.

When NATO withdrew from Afghanistan, the West pulled out of Central Asia. Russia has, in contrast, invested in its bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Mr Pantucci, the RUSI analyst, said China’s move was not meant as a challenge to Russia in Central Asia.

“I don’t think the Chinese would be doing anything in Central Asia without the tacit support of the Russians,” he said.

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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

China to close border with Kyrgyzstan

SEPT. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Chinese authorities said they would shut border crossings with Kyrgyzstan for three days at the beginning of October because of a national holiday. It is not uncommon for countries to close off their borders in connection with national holidays, but this decision seems to be tied to worsening security between the two countries. China and Kyrgyzstan blamed on Uyghur separatists an attack to the Chinese embassy in Bishkek in late August. China has not said it will close any other international border during this hoilday.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Uzbekistan bans forced labour

SEPT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan has ratified the International Labour Organisation’s convention on the ban on forced and child labour, the ministry of labour said in a statement. Every year, during the cotton harvest, human rights organisations denounce dozens of cases of child and forced labour. Cotton is an important commodity for Uzbekistan’s economy.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Young Tajiks attack on IRPT

SEPT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – A group of young pro-government demonstrators attacked the house of Rakhmatullo Rajab, a member of the banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) now in jail. The demonstrators threw rotten eggs onto the house, where Rajab’s relatives live. They also burned portraits of Rajab and other IRPT representatives, jailed last year after being accused of plotting a coup to overthrow the government. Human rights activists said this was just one of many violent attacks on the families of IRPT members.

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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Azerbaijan’s export to Turkey declines

SEPT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan exported to Turkey 2.9% less gas in Jan.-July 2016, compared to the same period last year, the Turkish energy regulator said. Azerbaijan’s exports in the first seven months of the year stood at 3.8b cubic metres, mostly originating from the Shah Deniz gas field. Azerbaijan’s supplies to Turkey make up around 20% of Turkish gas imports through pipelines. Oil and gas exports are vital to Azerbaijan’s economy.

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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Uzbek PM website introduces comment section

SEPT. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The website of the Uzbek PM’s office introduced a comment section for the first time, allowing citizens and registered companies to file complaints and suggestions electronically directly to the PM. The section is highly visible on the homepage of the PM’s website. Citizens can also file their requests through a hotline or by visiting the regional headquarters of UzLiDeP, the ruling party.

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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Comment: Georgia’s combustible election, writes Kilner

SEPT. 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — It was always going to get heated. Georgia’s parliamentary election descended into fighting this week when two opposing MPs traded punches during a live TV debate.

The surprise, perhaps, is that it has taken so long. Reports from Tbilisi have said that this has been one of the better-natured election campaigns in Georgia of recent years.

This parliamentary election campaign is a replay of the 2012 election when the Georgian Dream coalition, the party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, unseated the United National Movement party (UNM), the party of the then president Mikheil Saakashvili, in a bitter affair.

Since then the two parties haven’t stopped hurling insults at each other over human rights abuses and corruption. Fury has been building for four years. The policy differences and what each party represents — essentially the Georgian Dream is pro-Russia, pro-Church and pro-Ivanishvili; the UNM pro-West, pro-liberal and pro-Saakashvili — get lost in the fog of the battle and character assassinations that both sides have been dealing in.

Smaller parties generally form alliances with either the Georgian Dream or the UNM and buckle up for the ride.

At the apex of the storm two men are using the election to fight a Machiavellian encounter. Neither is actually standing in the election.

Ivanishvili is Georgia’s richest man. He pulls the strings at the Georgian Dream, deciding who will lead the party, and its policies.

Saakashvili, who dominated Georgian politics between 2003 and 2013, has been forced into exile, wanted by the Georgian prosecutors to stand trial on various accounts of financial wrongdoing. He is now governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine but there is little doubt he wields huge influence over the UNM His Dutch-born wife Sandra Roelofs, is standing as a candidate.

Ivanishvili and Saakashvili hate each other.

There are still eight days to go until the Oct. 8 election. They are going to be eight, tension-filled days with candidates focused on attacking one another, rather than debating the issues of the day — the state of the economy, relations with Russia and the West, civil rights, its rebel states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

After the elections, perhaps there will be time for Georgian politics to reset.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Tajik power plant to use Siemens-branded equipment

SEPT. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Rogun dam and power station, under construction in Tajikistan, will use Siemens-branded switch- gears, the German edition of Focus reported. In July, Italy’s Salini Impregilo won a $3.9b contract to build the Rogun dam, which will become the tallest dam in the world, at 355m.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Turkmen brewer borrows $2.8m to build factory to produce crisps

SEPT. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan may be known around the world for making intricate carpets, breeding fine horses and pumping enough gas out of the ground to help power China, but now it wants to branch out into crisp production.

The EBRD said that it was lending Turkmen brewer Berk $2.8m to build a potato crisp plant.

“Already a leading producer on the Turkmen beer market, Berk hopes to also become a frontrunner in potato chips production in the country, where most chips (crisps) are currently imported,” the EBRD wrote in a press release.

Berk and the EBRD will face some significant cultural challenges trying to spread crisp eating in Turkmenistan, though.

Sales of spirits, mainly vodka, currently dwarf beer sales and, while crisps are particularly popular as a beer snack in Britain, they are still viewed with suspicion in other countries. In Russia, for example, the norm is to eat salty, chewy cheese with beer.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)