DEC. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> Why is Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon in India? Is this just another meet and greet trip or something more significant?
>> It’s a five day trip starting on Dec. 14, so the length gives away some of the importance. He’s timed it nicely if he wanted to watch the final cricket test match between India and England down in Chennai, but I don’t think that’s why he’s there. Instead Rakhmon and Indian PM Narendra Modi will hold talks aimed at boosting bilateral relations. For India, Tajikistan has been groomed to be something of a springboard into Central Asia. For Tajikistan, India is a potential major investor.
>> I can understand why Tajikistan wants India as an investor, it must need a counterbalance to China’s growing influence and also to Russia, but why does India need to be in Central Asia?
>> India has been late getting in on the act in Central Asia. Whereas China, its great Asian rival, has developed now fairly substantial political and business ties, India has appeared flat-footed. Central Asia is an energy and mineral rich region virtually on its door- step but India simply hasn’t been able to develop any major footholds. Take the energy sector. India needs more energy supplies, so this is important to Delhi. When ConocoPhillips wanted to sell its 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil project in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea in 2012, it negotiated a deal with India’s state-owned ONGC. This was to be ONGC’s chance to buy into one of the most highly prized pieces of energy real estate in the world. It didn’t work out, though, as Kazakhstan exercised an option that it had on the field and pushed the stake towards China. China’s CNPC ended up buying it for $5b in 2013. India was left looking impotent.
>> That’s certainly a major snub, especially if India has already agreed the deal. What has India done since then to get back into the Central Asian region?
>> It’s been busy. Modi toured all five Central Asian states in 2015. It was a whirlwind tour to each of the region’s capitals and was generally considered a diplomatic success. And India has develop some major projects since losing out on the Kashagan stake. The biggest of these is the TAPI gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan, across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. It’s an ambitious multi-billion-dollar project that will change the dynamic of the region. Suddenly a major infrastructure project is flowing north-south rather than west-east.
>> So where does Tajikistan fit into all this?
>> India’s interest in Tajikistan is more strategic than obviously economic. In 2003, India upgraded the Ayni airbase outside Dushanbe. The theory was, back then, than it was going to station its air force at the airbase but this never came about. When Modi was in Tajikistan last year he visited the base but no deals were agreed, at least publicly. Earlier this year, the members of the influential China and Russia led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation voted in India and Pakistan as members. Tajikistan has been an important ally for India in helping it secure this.
>> Right. What else is likely to come out of Rakhmon’s visit to India this week?
>> It’s difficult to say for sure. This is Rakhmon’s sixth trip to India but his first since 2012. Indian media have speculated that there will be an upgrade of Indian-Tajik relations and that there could be some movement over the Ayni airbase but a pre-visit statement from the Indian ministry for external affairs was tight-lipped.
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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)
