Category Archives: Central Asia & South Caucasus News

Currencies: Kazakh tenge

FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge moved to $325.5/$1, its highest value against the US dollar since December 2015. The main drivers of this strengthened currency are oil prices and a more consistent and credible economic policy coming out of the Central Bank.

In January last year, the tenge bottomed-out at 381/$1. This was when oil prices were hovering at under $30/barrel, after Iran said it would start exporting oil as soon as US-lead sanctions were lifted, and confidence in Kazakhstan’s economic policies were at an all- time low after a bungled defence and then a sudden devaluation of the tenge.

Now oil prices are back up around $55 and Daniyar Akishev is heading the Central Bank. He took over from the hapless, indecisive

Kairat Kelimbetov in November 2015. It hasn’t been all easy for Akishev, but things are definitely looking up now. This year alone, the Kazakh tenge has outperformed its regional peers and risen by 3%.

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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Turkmenistan arms Caspian Sea patrol boats

FEB. 1 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Eurasianet website reported that Turkmenistan has deployed new French missile systems on its two new Turkish-made patrol boats in the Caspian Sea. The countries that border the Caspian Sea — Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan — are still squabbling over just how to divide it up. Tensions have previously flared up.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Analysts place Bank of Georgia shares on a ‘buy’ rating

FEB. 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shares in the Bank of Georgia rose by more than 50% last year to a peak of 380/$1 in mid-December. Since then they have come off the boil slightly hitting a three-month low of 312/$1 on Jan. 12.

Now, though, things appear to be picking up again. The Bank of Georgia’s share price measured 350/$1 on Feb. 2 and analysts predicted more growth. London- based brokerage Peel Hunt said Bank of Georgia’s subsidiary Georgia Healthcare looked good this year and was likely to see profits rise.

“We update our model to incorporate the strong growth expected in Georgia Healthcare’s profitability,” the broker said, explaining that it had given Bank of Georgia a ‘buy’ rating.

It also said that Georgia’s macroeconomic outlook looked good for Bank of Georgia.

“In addition, we continue to expect Bank of Georgia to benefit from underlying Georgian economic growth, supporting the core Banking division,” the brokerage said.

Last month, Georgia’s Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze said that Georgia’s GDP would grow by more than 4% because of tax cuts, an infrastructure investment plan and a free-trade deal with China.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Start of CASA-1000 pushed back to 2020

BISHKEK, FEB. 1 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A delay in handing out a contract to build two converter stations has pushed back the start date of the CASA-1000 project which aims to send electricity generated by hydropower stations in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Express-Tribune newspaper quoted an unnamed Pakistani official as saying that French engineering company Alstom had asked for more time to put in a bid to build two converter stations.

“Four countries that are part of the project – Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan – have agreed to give relaxation in the timeframe keeping in view the request of Alstom, which is a credible name and a major supplier of converter stations across the world,” the newspaper quoted the official as saying.

“Now, this project is likely to be ready in 2020.”

CASA-1000 had been due to start up either at the end of this year or in 2018. It is backed by the World Bank and is considered a vital economic and strategic link between Central Asia and South Asia, binding the two regions together, providing an export product for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and electricity for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The two converter stations are vital to the CASA-1000 project. One will be sited in Tajikistan and the other in Pakistan.

The value of the tender has not been released but the names of the companies bidding for it have been. They are the US’ GE, Japan’s Mitsubishi, Germany’s Siemens and Alstom.

For the West the CASA-1000 project also has major significance as the physical implementation of the north-south Silk Road trade route that Hillary Clinton touted in 2011 when she was US Secretary of State.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)

Kazkom and Halyk Bank agree merger

Azerbaijani court sentences 17 for links to Muslim group

JAN. 26 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Baku sentenced 17 people to up to 20 years in prison for plotting to overthrow the government and for trafficking. The men, 16 of them described as members of a group called Muslim Unity, were all arrested in a suburb of Baku in December 2015. The suburb was renowned for its pious nature. Police cordoned off the area during the arrests which triggered a shootout in which six people were killed. Rights protesters have called the trial a sham and a show trial.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Gazprom to buy Kazakh gas

JAN. 24 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s Gazprom will buy 12.8b cubic metres of gas from Kazakhstan in 2017 continuing its strategy of preferring Kazakh gas suppliers over other regional companies. Kazmunaigas has boosted its cooperation with Gazprom over the past few years while other state companies linked to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have lost ground.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Dutch chip maker to set up plant in Kazakhstan

JAN. 25 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Dutch potato chip manufacturer Farm Frites is considering setting up a plant in northeast Kazakhstan, Kazakh deputy PM Askar Myrzakhmetov, Kazakh deputy PM and agriculture, said. Farm Frites supplies frozen potato chips to restaurants. A deal with Koktem Agricultural services, the company it is negotiating with, would give the Kazakh government a boost as it has said it wants to diversify away from oil and gas.

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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)f

Halyk Bank starts talk with Kazkommertsbank

JAN. 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ending weeks of speculation, Halyk Bank, owned by the son-in-law and daughter of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, said that it had started talks with Kazkommertsbank, the country’s biggest bank, on merging. A potential merger between the two banks would create a company that would dominate the Kazakh banking sector with a market share of around 40%. Unnamed sources in November 2016 had told Reuters that a merger between the two banks was being discussed in secret.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)

Armenia and Russia to set up new airline

JAN. 26 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia and Armenia are likely to set up a new airline to fly routes between Yerevan and Moscow, Vahan Martirosyan, Armenia’s communications and technology minister, was quoted as saying. Armenia has been without a national flag-carrier since 2013 when Armavia was declared bankrupt. The privately-owned Armenia, a low-cost airline, started flights last year to Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)