Category Archives: Central Asia & South Caucasus News

Azerbaijani President meets Hollande in Paris

MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev was in Paris to meet with French President Francois Hollande, a week after his foe Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan also travel to the Elysee Palace. The meeting was framed around ongoing talks to find a permanent peace for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed rebels have officially been at war over since the early 1990s. A UN ceasefire has held a shaky peace since 1994. There were no particular deals announced at the meeting.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Tajikistan provides highest number of suicide bombers, says report

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MARCH 12 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan has provided the highest number of suicide bombers for the extremist group IS, Radio Free Europe/Radio/Liberty reported quoting a report by The Hague- based International Center for Counter-Terrorism. It said that 27 Tajiks had killed themselves in Syria and Iraq, more than any other group of foreigners.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Russia wants Armenia-Turket detente

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MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with Armenian media, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that Russia would help Turkey and Armenia patch up their differences. Relations between Armenia and Turkey are strained over a row over an alleged genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turks at the end of the Second World War. Russia is Armenia’s biggest patron and is now also on decent terms with Turkey.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Protests grow in Armenian capital after ‘Bread Provider’ dies

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YEREVAN, MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Thousands of demonstrators have marched for four consecutive days through the Armenian capital demanding answers from the government about the death of 49- year old Artur Sargsyan, one of the men arrested and imprisoned last year for capturing a police station.

His death and the subsequent demonstrations have galvanized support for opposition groups only a fortnight before a parliamentary election, the first to be held under a new constitution that shifts power away from the presidential office.

The mainly young protesters have marched arm-in-arm through Yerevan shouting for the government to resign and holding aloft pictures of Sargsyan, known by his nicknamed as ‘The Bread Provider’.

During the two-week-long capture of the police station in July by a group of opposition gunmen, Sargsyan had broken through a police cordon to give them food. He was arrested when they surrendered, and died on March 16 in a hospital 10 days after ending a 25-day hunger strike.

For President Sargsyan and his Republican Party the death and protests, estimated at being 1,000-strong every night, have come at precisely the wrong time. They don’t want voters to see TV footage of police forcibly pulling young protesters off the roads and into their waiting vans.

Richard Giragosian, director of Regional Studies Center based in Yerevan, said that protests have been the defining image of Armenia over the last couple of years and that these latest demonstrations reminds voters of this.

In 2015 there were weeks of protests and clashes with police over a proposed electricity price increase and in 2016 there were more clashes between police and supporters of the gunmen who had captured the police station.

“Although the aftermath of his death may be fairly temporary, and limited to a spontaneous outburst of anger, nevertheless, public anger and deep discontent have also defined this country’s coming election,” said Mr Giragosian said.

The only public opinion poll so far, published on March 6 by Gallup, showed that the party led by millionaire Gagik Tsarukyan, who is broadly sympathetic to the current government, would receive 26.4% of the votes compared to 22.8% for the Republican party.

The poll also showed the other seven political parties and blocs, considered the real opposition forces, failing to pass the threshold to win seats.

The demonstrations may shift that, though, Mr Giragosian said “The government’s arrogance has already undermined both their position and popularity,” he said.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Russia to take some soldiers from Georgia’s breakaway region

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TBILISI, MARCH 13/14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia agreed to absorb some South Ossetian army units into its military, cementing its control over the Georgian breakaway region.

The announcement, which has been in the making for two years, comes only a few weeks after Russia held its annual military exercise in South Ossetia, manoeuvres guaranteed to draw an angry response from Georgia only nine years since the two neighbours fought a brief war over the rebel region.

Under the military amalgamation plan, members of the better trained South Ossetian units will be able to switch to the Russian army.

The Kremlin simply said Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed “The Order of Inclusion of Certain Units of the Armed Forces of South Ossetia in the Russian Armed Forces.”

In the Georgia-Russia war of 2008, South Ossetian militia were considered to be fierce but ragged. They were praised for holding off Georgia’s army from capturing Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, for a crucial 24 hours before Russian reinforcements reached them. But they were also regarded as ill-disciplined and blamed for burning Georgian houses, murder and looting.

Tension around Georgia’s border with South Ossetia is still high.

Since the 2008 war, Russia has officially recognised South Ossetia as an independent state. Only a handful of countries have followed its lead, notably the Pacific Ocean nation of Nauru, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

South Ossetia has always said that its ultimate aim is to join Russia and the move by the Russian army to absorb some its soldiers takes it a step closer.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Armenia signs up to be EITI candidate

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YEREVAN, MARCH 9/14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s government started the task of implementing various standards ordered by the global governance watchdog, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), five days after it was approved as a candidate country.

At the same meeting in Bogota that Armenia’s candidature was approved, the EITI suspended Azerbaijan for not improving its rules over NGO registration. The next day Azerbaijan quit the group calling its biased and accusing it of mission creep.

Still, Armenian PM’s chief of staff, Davit Harutyunyan, explained the importance for Armenia of the EITI’s candidate status.

“A well-managed natural resource extraction can become more profitable for the citizens of Armenia, and the EITI is the right tool to achieve this goal,” he was quoted as saying in an EITI press release.

Originally aimed at improving governance in countries where the extractive industries, either mining or oil and gas, dominate, the EITI Standards have become more widespread and diluted. Armenia mines some gold and copper, but it is a small part of its economy compared to other products such as electricity and banking. According to the EITI press release, mining accounts for just 5% of Armenia’s GDP.

But, as well as widening its remit, the EITI Standards have become important in international fiance. International lenders use it as governance benchmark. The EBRD has warned Azerbaijan that it may consider pulling funding from projects if it fails the EITI Standards. It has yet to comment on Azerbaijan quitting the EITI.

At its AGM, the EITI said both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had made progress towards meeting its Standards but there was more work to be done.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Markets: TBC Bank

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MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Rather like the Georgian rugby team that it sponsors, TBC Bank is on the up. The bank, which has a 37% share of the consumer loans market in Georgia, is listed on the London Stock Exchange. It pushed up to near an all-time high on March 17 of 1,497p/$1. This is 29% higher than it was at its IPO in mid-August.

And analysts say there is more to come from TBC. It’s main rival is Bank of Georgia, which has a market share of around 32%. It’s share price has tripled since it listed five years ago.

Analysts have also said that the Georgian consumer market has plenty of room to grow. They point out that the market is still underdeveloped and that banks’ loan books are growing by 20% every year.

There are, of course, risks for investors. These come mainly in the exposure to Georgia, which has a high level of political and economic risk. Its currency has been dented and its politics can be fraught.

Just like the Georgian rugby team, which is knocking on the door of the venerable Six Nations tournament, TBC Bank is heading in the right direction for increased kudos and recognition.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Armenia to open consulate in Kurdistan

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MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia will open a consulate in Ebril, the capital of Kurdish Iraq, media reported, highlighting what appears to be a drive to boost relations across the Middle East. Media said that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had signed the order to open the consulate after PM Karen Karapetian had said that he wanted to boost relations with the region. Armenia is also strengthening ties with Iran.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Kazakh airline signs codeshare deal with Lufthansa

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MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Air Astana, half owned by the Kazakh government and half owned by Britain’s BAE Systems, signed a codeshare agreement, effectively allowing the airlines to sell each other’s flights between Frankfurt and Astana or Almaty. The agreement is a boost for Air Astana. It already has code sharing agreements with a handful of high- profile airlines including KLM, Turkish, Etihad and Air France.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Tough times for Kazakh banks, says S&P

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MARCH 14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said that banks in Kazakhstan will face another tough year because the Kazakh economy is still labouring under slow growth rates, depressed commodity prices and exchange rate volatility. The Kazakh Central Bank has set up a fund to help banks that are struggling through this regional economic downturn.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)