MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Hundreds of students at Tbilisi State University staged a sit-in to protest at what they said was the non transparent way the university decides on its management structure. The protest attracted nationwide attention, and even forced the intervention of PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili. Some analysts said that the protest could spread.
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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 14 2016, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s President Almazbek Atambayev fired Nursulu Akhmetova, one of the most prominent women in Kyrgyz finance, as head of the Kyrgyz-Russian Development Fund barely a year after she took the job.
The $500m Kyrgyz-Russian Development Fund was set up last February to smooth Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the Eurasian Economic Union.
It was supposed to hand out grants and cheap loans to businesses to help them make the transition. Instead, in the seven months since Kyrgyzstan became a Eurasian Economic Union member, the Kyrgyz- Russian Fund has become a source for frustration for Kyrgyz businesses.
News reports quoted Mr Atambayev saying at her sacking: “I’ve spoken about this a few times with the Prime Minister. The Fund has not developed well, and the Government did not make it to work well.”
Kyrgyz businesses have accused the fund of changing the rules and making cash available only to large companies rather than small businesses.
Under Ms Akhmetova, the Fund had insisted that to qualify for loans or grants, businesses had to take out a minimum loan of $3m, contributing 20% itself.
For Mr Atambayev, the sacking is a personal disappointment. Before getting the job, on a three year contract, Ms Akhmetova had been head of the analytical department of the Presidential Administration. She was also its deputy director. Mr Atambayev would have worked with Ms Akhemetova personally.
Her replacement was named as Kubanychbek Kulmatov, a former mayor of Bishkek.
Analyst Emil Juraev said that the Fund still had a role to play if it can regain credibility under new leadership.
“The Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund, if used well, can certainly have a significant positive effect on economic development of Kyrgyzstan,” he said. “However, so far there have been many reasons for concern about the ability of Kyrgyzstan to effectively and freely manage the funds.”
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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — People in Tajikistan appear to be losing faith in their banking system, triggering a run on one of the country’s biggest banks.
This week crowds of around 100 people have been gathering at the head office of Tojiksodirotbank in Dushanbe, the only place the bank’s customers can withdraw money.
Nuriniso, a 30-year-old street-cleaner, was queuing to withdraw her salary. “Yesterday, I was at the bank until 9pm to get my money. They gave me 700 somoni (around $90) and told me to come another day for some more,” she told a Conway Bulletin correspondent.
An older woman standing next to Nuriniso explained.
“Don’t you understand that the bank is bankrupt?” she said of rumours fuelling what could, effectively be a run on the bank. “The bank will close from the first of April and money can only be withdrawn from other ATMs at 25% (commission).”
This is important for the entire Central Asia and South Caucasus region which has been hit by a worsening economic crisis. If withdrawals from Tojiksodirotbank did accelerate and it did become a run on the bank, it would be the first instance of an unplanned banking failure linked to the current economic downturn.
Tojiksodirotbank, which holds the majority of accounts for the country’s lower and middle classes such as doctors, teachers and government officials, has not commented on the queues forming outside their branches. Instead it said via its website that a technical problem was slowing down transactions.
And Tojiddin Pirzoda, the bank’s chairman has denied rumours of its impending bankruptcy. “Tojiksodirotbank holds a leading and a strong position in the banking system,” Tajik state news agency Khovar quoted him as saying in February.
But Nuriniso, the street cleaner who earns 640 somoni a month (around $80), said she had now lost confidence in Tajik banks.
“I will never keep my money in banks. My workplace has created this headache (by paying my salary into Tojiksodirotbank) ,” she said.
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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzavtosanoat, part-owner of the GM Uzbekistan joint venture, said the company will start production of Chevrolet Aveo in May. GM Uzbekistan, formerly UzDaewooAuto, produces several models of cars for the US manufacturer GM. The company said the Aveo will help its market share in the former Soviet Union and, possibly, open new export avenues in the Middle East and Africa.
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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s state-owned electricity company Samruk Energo said it resumed deliveries of electricity to Russia after cross-border trade was suspended in November 2014 due to the sharp depreciation of the rouble against the tenge.
Over the past six months the tenge has lost around 50% of its value, bringing it into equilibrium with the rouble and making cross-border trade viable again. Kazakhstan had stubbornly stuck to a US dollar peg despite a fall in global oil prices and a recession in Russia. It ditched this peg in August.
These electricity trades are important as they are more evidence of a normalisation of trade ties between Kazakhstan and Russia after a series of rows last year which, at their root, were triggered by the currency imbalance. Power supply contracts between Samruk Energo and Inter RAO are denominated in roubles which hit their value for Samruk Energo when the rouble fell heavily against the tenge.
Samruk Energo said it wants to export 1.8b kWh to Russia in 2016, slightly less than it exported in 2014. In 2013 power exports to Russia had been around 2.5b kWh.
The two power stations at Ekibas- tuz, in north-eastern Kazakhstan, will provide the electricity and Samruk Energo said the second unit at Eki- bastuz was also put into operation.
“Free capacity at Ekibastuz GRES- 1 and GRES-2 was allocated to export deliveries,” Almassadam Satkaliyev, Samruk Energo chairman, said in a statement.
The first unit is owned by Samruk Energo and Ekibastuz Holding, controlled by Kazakhmys.
GRES-2, the second unit at Eki- bastuz, is jointly owned by Samruk Energo and Russia’s Inter RAO.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a move that caught observers by surprise, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev released 148 prisoners, including a dozen or so political prisoners.
Observers, though, said that Mr Aliyev may have been feeling the heat from a sharp drop in the economy and growing unease among Azerbaijanis over accelerating inflation and a 50% cut in the value of the manat currency. They said that he may have wanted to extend a peace offering to the European Union, a vital trade partner, with which he has quarrelled over human rights.
Among those released were human rights campaigners Taleh Khasmamadov, Hilal Mammadov and Rasul Jafarov, opposition activist Nemat Panahli, exelection watchdog chief Anar Mammadli and journalist Parviz Hasimov.
They had all been arrested and jailed in the past three years for holding illegal weapons, drugs dealing or financial crimes.
Their supporters say that these charges have simply been trumped up to crackdown on dissenters in politics and the media.
Khadija Isamayilova, a journalist who focused on corruption and was jailed last year in a case that attracted worldwide media attention, was not pardoned.
On the same day that the prisoners were released, the deputy head of the Presidential Administration, Novruz Mammadov, was briefing Azerbaijani media about improved relations with the European Union.
He said that a new document bringing together the EU and Azerbaijan was likely to be signed soon.
“I have no doubt about that, because, recently, the EU commissioners for foreign affairs and energy issues visited Azerbaijan and expressed their position on the essence of the relations,” the Trend news agency quoted him as saying.
One of the more significant visits by EU officials over the last few months was Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign affairs commissioner. She talked up relations between Azerbaijan and the EU.
The European Union is so important to Azerbaijan because it is on the brink of becoming its biggest market for gas from the next phase of its Caspian Sea development.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan has not been invited to a meeting in Qatar set for April 17 where major world oil suppliers are due to discuss freezing output levels at their current rates, energy minister Vladimir Shkolnik said. The apparent snub for the FSU’s second biggest oil producer underlines its role as an oil price taker rather than an oil price maker. Oil producing nations are trying to coordinate a response to drag oil prices off record lows.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan will host the main military exercise for members of the Russia and China led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) later this year. Media said that the military exercise, involving soldiers from all the SCO’s members will be the biggest held in Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are also members of the SCO which has an economic, social and military agenda.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan travelled to Athens for a high-profile meeting with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras where both sides pledged to increase bilateral support and trade. Greece is, potentially, a natural ally for Armenia in Europe. Both countries have strong Christian roots and are both able to grumble about past grievances with their larger shared neighbour, Turkey.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
MARCH 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) -The economic downturn continues to hit Central Asia and the South Caucasus with British Airways now cancelling its London-Baku service.
But whether BA needs to quit the route altogether is questionable. Airlines keep a diversified portfolio of route because it is near impossible to second guess which routes will be profitable in a few year’s time.
The decision took many by surprise because of the strong presence of British business in Azerbaijan, most notably BP.
As oil prices fell dramatically in the past 20 months, airline companies have rallied on cheap fuel, but have also struggled to maintain links to countries negatively affected by the crisis.
In 2012, British Airways cut its route to Yerevan, the following year it cancelled regular flights to Bishkek and Tbilisi. Last October, the company quit its London-Almaty route.
The crisis, aside from hitting government budgets and people’s wallets, has contributed to cutting off further the region from the West.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
Editorial from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)
