OCT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF downgraded its economic growth figures for Azerbaijan to 4.5% this year because of the impact of sanctions on Russia, media reported. Earlier, the IMF had predicted growth of 5% for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s economy is less impacted by Russia’s economy than other former Soviet states.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 1% to 6.9%, its highest level in two years, to try and dampen rapidly rising inflation.
Like other countries in former Soviet Central Asia, Tajikistan’s economy is suffering from the knock-on effect of sanctions on Russia. Remittances from workers based in Russia generate around half of Tajikistan’s GDP. This revenue stream has dried up since the sanctions dampened Russia’s economy.
But Tajikistan is also battling rising inflation. Inflation measured over 5% for the first eight months of this year, nearly double the rate for last year.
The main problem for Tajikistan is that as well as weakening remittance flows from Russia, importing goods has become more expensive.
Rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nightmare combination for Tajikistan.
This was also the second interest rate increase by Tajikistan this year. In May it boosted interest rates by 1.1% to 5.9%. Previously it had cut rates on eight consecutive occasions.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Moodys, the ratings agency, said Azerbaijan’s foreign investments, its low government debt and oil generated fiscal surpluses would shield its economy from shocks. The report highlights why Azerbaijan’s economy is stronger than others in the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting of CIS heads of states in Minsk, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon said Belarus and Armenia had already given it aid to bolster security along its border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan wants to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union which counts Belarus and Kazakhstan as members. Armenia is joining in 2015.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The United States criticised moves by Kyrgyzstan to make so-called “gay propaganda” illegal as being harmful to democracy. The laws are similar to those introduced by Russia. The US embassy put out a rare harshly worded statement which said: “Sweeping limits on civil society harm democracy.”
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Replacing the pipes running from the Kashagan oil site in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea to the mainland could cost up to $3.6b, Reuters reported quoting an energy ministry document. Kashagan is already the world’s most expensive oil project. Production has been delayed because of leaky gas pipes.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Almaty is talking up its chances of hosting the Winter Olympic Games in 2022. A spokesman for the country’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk- Kazyna, which is promoting the bid, said it was almost certain to win the Games after Oslo dropped out. Beijing is the other candidate city.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ratings agency Standard & Poors placed Kazkommertzbank, one of the biggest banks in Kazakhstan, on a negative ratings watch because of its purchase of BTA Bank. BTA Bank was bought from the government in what analysts have said was a political, rather than business, move. BTA Bank owned a large amount of bad debt.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – As well as boosting gas exports to neighbouring Iran, Turkmenistan now wants to increase electricity supplies. Under President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Turkmenistan has become a major energy exporter across the Middle East. Earlier this year it agreed to boost gas supplies to Iran.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
OCT. 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia and Russia often appear to be playing an extended game of cat and mouse.
Only a few days after Russia warned Georgia that it would not tolerate any NATO equipment in the country, USS Mount Whitney steamed into Batumi, its third visit to the Georgian Black Sea port (since 2008).
Its mission, according to reports, is a simple joint training exercise with Georgia’s navy. On its previous two trips Russia has accused it of delivering arms.
And only on Oct. 9, Russia had said that if NATO deployed so-called infrastructure to Georgia it would destabilise the region. At a meeting between Georgian and Russian officials in Geneva, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it was concerned about reports that NATO was moving kit into the region.
“Such actions would create a threat to emerging stability in the Transcaucasus region,” the Russian foreign ministry said.
In general, relations between the two neighbours have improved since former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili lost power last year. Georgia, though, has been heavily critical of Russia’s alleged support of Ukraine rebels and it has increased its rhetoric about joining NATO.
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(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)
