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Tajik economy sliding, says WB

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s GDP has fallen by 0.8% this year compared to 2014, the World Bank said, more evidence that economies closely-linked to Russia are suffering from sanctions imposed by the West.

The World Bank said that a fall in remittances from Tajik workers in Russia had translated into weaker domestic demand for goods.

“A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel,” the World Bank wrote in its report.

“A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction.”

This is particularly worrying for Western countries which are counting on a strong and stable Tajikistan to act as a bulwark against any movement by the Taliban northwards into Central Asia from Afghanistan.

Most of the former Soviet Union has been hit by Western sanctions imposed on Russia because of its alleged intervention in the Ukraine civil war but the World Bank also said that a generally weak global demand for industrial goods was impacting Tajikistan too.

It said that industrial growth had fallen to 3% from 7% a year earlier because of low global industrial demand and falling cotton and aluminium prices.

These sentiments mirror the Tajik Central Bank. Both also predicted that inflation would gradually become an increased concern in Tajikistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Inflation to rise in Kyrgyzstan

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev has said inflation will increase in Kyrgyzstan when it joins the Customs Union, which is morphing into the Eurasian Economic Union next year. He also said the country no alternative to joining the Russia-led economic bloc, highlighting the Kremlin’s tightened grip over Kyrgyzstan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

France to extradite Kazakhstan’s BTA bank ex-xhairman

OCT. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in France agreed to extradite the ex-chairman of Kazakhstan’s BTA Bank Mukhtar Ablyazov to either Russia or Ukraine to face charges he stole billions of dollars.

Prosecutors in Russia have accused Ablyazov of a $5b fraud and Ukraine wants to try him for stealing $400m.

Human rights advocates had argued that Ablyazov wouldn’t face a fair trial if he was extradited and that he may also be sent on to Kazakhstan where he is wanted on various charges including trying to incite a revolution.

The court in Lyon effectively overturned a previous decision by the Supreme Court in Paris that rejected Ablyazov’s extradition. It did, though, specify that neither Ukraine nor Russia were allowed to send him on to Kazakhstan.

Even so, for Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, Ablyazov’s extradition to either Ukraine or Russia is a major success and partially underlines his personal clout.

Relations between Kazakhstan and France have developed markedly over the past few years. Some have said that under former French President Nikolas Sarkozy the relationship became too cosy and a court in France is currently investigating allegations of bribes paid by French executives to secure a major helicopter deal.

Ablyazov had been a minister under Nazarbayev but increasingly positioned himself as an opposition leader. He fled to London in 2009 and fought the Kazakh government in a major legal case over funds. He was found guilty of contempt of court in London but absconded to the French Riviera where he was captured in 2013.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Armenia denies Crimea flight

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia has denied that it has given permission for a commercial flight between Yerevan and Simferopol, the capital of Crimea.

As reported by the Bulletin last week, Grozny Avia, a Chechen airline, has floated plans to fly between the two cities twice a week. If the flight route did materialise it would be the first air route into Crimea, other than from Russia, since Russian forces annexed the Ukrainian province earlier this year.

News of the planned flight angered the Ukrainian government. It has also been suggested that Armenia had been coaxed into allowing the flight to appease Russia. Armenia needs Russian economic support to keep its finances in order and Russian military support to balance the threat posed by Azerbaijan which wants to re-take the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia-back rebels.

But Armenia’s civil aviation authority has said that an earlier statement from Crimea’s transport minister about the planned flight was simply wrong.

“The Head Department of Civil Aviation did not receive, and therefore has not examine, a bid for operation of direct flights from Yerevan to Simferopol,” media quoted spokesman Ruben Grdzelyan as saying.

This is not a categorical no, then. It does suggest that this issue may have further to run.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Azerbaijan’s oil production slips

OCT. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s oil production will drop by 2.5% next year because of the continued slump in output from BP’s Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oil fields, Reuters reported quoting a source close to the government. ACG is currently Azerbaijan’s largest oil producing field. BP has promised to maintain output but without success.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Georgia imprisoned ex-minister

OCT. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Georgia sentenced former defence minister Bacho Akhalaia to 7-1/2 years in prison for abuse of power and torture.

Akhalaia is the most high-profile member of the former government of Mikheil Saakashvili to be sent to prison. The current government, headed by members of the Georgian Dream coalition, has said it has to pursue former ministers on various corruption and abuse charges although Mr Saakashvili and his allies have called the charges a witch hunt.

The European Union and the United States have both warned the current government of using its powers to pursue personal vendettas. The US repeated its warning after the imprisonment of Akhalaia.

“We continue to stress to the Georgian Government the importance of due process and rule of law and of conducting investigations with transparency to avoid even the perception that the judicial system is being used for political retribution,” a US State Department spokesman said.

The big risk for the Georgian government is that it is undermining the country’s positive image with the West.

Akhalaia was already held in pre-trial detention. His conviction dates back to the torture of four inmates in 2006 when he was head of the Georgian prison service. He was also a former interior minister.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Kyrgyzstan wants Turkmen power

OCT. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz officials flew to Turkmenistan to try to buy more electricity. Kyrgyzstan’s reservoirs are about 25% below capacity and its government has said that it is likely to face a power shortage. Kyrgyzstan has already negotiated to increase power imports from Kazakhstan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Negotiations re-open over Tajik-Kyrgyz border

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Negotiations over the Tajik-Kyrgyz border have re-opened, media reported. This is important because this year there have been several skirmishes along the border. The issue of the Tajiki-Kyrgyz border is one of the most sensitive in Central Asia and has the potential to destabilise the region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Kyrgyzstan threatens NGOs

OCT. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Barely a week after Kyrgyzstan’s parliament passed a first reading of a law banning the promotion of gay propaganda, more proposals restricting civil rights have surfaced.

Media reported that Kyrgyzstan wants to restrict NGOs receiving financial support from overseas, forcing groups to submit to tighter auditing and control.

Perhaps most importantly the law is similar to one brought in by Russia in 2012. The anti-gay law was also similar to a law introduced in Russia underlining the increased influence that Russia has over Kyrgyzstan.

The London-based lobby group Institute for War and Peace Reporting wrote: “Many Kyrgyz groups work on civil and political rights, democracy-building, and corruption, and could soon find themselves as beleaguered as their Russian counterparts.”

Kyrgyz officials have defended the new law as essential to monitor groups that could potentially be used to undermine Kyrgyz democracy.

Perhaps, although, similarly to the anti-gay law, the real reason could be Kyrgyzstan’s need to cosy up to Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Kazakh police arrested Border Guards chief

OCT. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police arrested the head of the Kazakh Border Guards Services, a powerful military unit, General Nurlan Dzhulamamnov for abuse of power. It’s unclear exactly what the charges are although the arrest will come as a blow to the Border Guards Service already suffering from an image problem linked to bullying and corruption.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)