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Turkmen President hosts UAE Sultan

MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov hosted Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, state minister of the United Arab Emirates and director general of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, for talks in Ashgabat only a few days after he had met up with a senior member of the Qatari government. The two consecutive meetings in Ashgabat underline Mr Berdymukhamedov’s desire to open up a transit route south to the Persian Gulf. Turkmenistan sees itself as a regional gas producer and wants to reach new markets.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Business comment: Oil Rebounds

MARCH 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In less than two months, Brent oil prices shot up by around 40%, giving oil companies a boost after months of downward pressure.

According to industry specialists, oil prices should remain within the current corridor of $35-$40/barrel until the end of the year, with an upward outlook (see chart above).

An Asian energy markets expert told The Conway Bulletin confidentially that he believes oil prices might grow back up to three figures by 2020, a long-term bullish statement.

But in the meantime, oil- dependent economies in the South

Caucasus and Central Asia will continue to suffer.

Despite the rebound in oil prices, most of the fields in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will operate at a loss this year as well. And there is only a slim chance that the two Central Banks in Baku and Almaty will decide to weaken their currencies further in order to favour the export-oriented sectors of their economy.

Tengizchevroil, the consortium in charge of the Tengiz oil field in Western Kazakhstan has delayed a final investment decision on its expansion project. BP has said its fields in Azerbaijan will not show an increase in production in 2016.

The gas sector will also be impacted by oil prices in the medium term, as gas prices will also shrink, albeit moderately, for Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The decline of oil and gas prices has now almost reached its two- year anniversary and exporters will feel an increasingly stronger pressure from importers to give them subsidies and discounts, given the regional economic downturn that is affecting all countries in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Tajikistan and Russia flex muscles

MARCH 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and Russia held a massive military exercise, media reported, a show of force towards an increasingly aggressive Taliban. According to reports, the military exercise was the biggest ever held in Tajikistan. Russia and its allies have become increasingly wary of the Taliban spreading north.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakh Halyk Bank not to pay dividends

MARCH 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh lender Halyk Bank said it might not pay dividends for 2015 as the company expects a sharp decline in earnings this year. “The board is considering paying no dividend this year,” Dauren Karabayev, deputy CEO at the bank, was quoted by the FT as saying. Mr Karabayev was also not confident regarding the coming year for Kazakhstan’s economy. “2016 will not be a strong year,” he said. Halyk Bank is controlled by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara and her husband Timur Kulibayev, one of the country’s most high-profile businessmen.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakh and Azeri VTB change directors

MARCH 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Azeri and Kazakh subsidiaries of Russian bank VTB changed their directors. In Azerbaijan, Vugar Ismayilov left his post of deputy chairman after seven years. In Kazakhstan, Mikhail Oseyevski substituted Mikhail Yakunin as chairman after Mr Yakunin left the bank to join the Russian National Commercial Bank, formerly owned by the government of Crimea, now property of the Russian government.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Kazakh election looms

MARCH 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhs prepared to vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday, brought forward by a year after parliament said it had achieved its remit early. The election is expected to be a straightforward affair with the ruling Nur Otan party, which won 82% of the vote at the last election in 2012, winning easily again.

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(News report from Issue No. 272, published on March 18 2016)

Gebrueder enters Kazakh market

MARCH 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Austrian logistics company Gebrueder Weiss said it had bought two subsidiaries of Germany’s Brockmueller Spedition in Almaty, entering the Kazakh market for the first time. The company said its new operations in southern Kazakhstan will serve as a transport hub between China and Europe.

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(News report from Issue No. 271, published on March 11 2016)

Armenian economy expects low growth

MARCH 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The World Bank predicted that Armenia’s economy would grow at 2.5% this year, it’s lowest rate for five years. Last year, the World Bank said that Armenia’s economy grew by 3%. It said that the main problems facing Armenia were a recession in Russia and structural weaknesses in its own economy.

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(News report from Issue No. 271, published on March 11 2016)

Stock market: Central Asia Metals

MARCH 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan-based Central Asia Metals has performed well in the past weeks, after its stock price dipped to 124p on January 20, its lowest level since August 2013.

The stock had suffered from poor market conditions for commodities, but it picked up since it published an upbeat outlook for 2016, after it received government approval at the end of 2015 for the expansion of its Kounrad project in central Kazakhstan.

Analysts, however, remain cautious on the performance of the stock.

Peter Mallin-Jones, mining analyst at Peel Hunt which is a London based brokerage focused on small and medium sized companies, told The Bulletin that his downgraded share target price still held.

“The upward trend is in line with the general moves in the mining sector. KAZ Minerals is also showing a similar trend in the London Stock Exchange,” he said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 271, published on March 11 2016)

Georgia’s city water chief quits

MARCH 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alexander Mikeladze, director of Batumi Water, resigned from his post after he became involved in a public scandal. Mr Mikeladze is accused of having abused his position of director of the water distribution company. He allegedly cut off the water supply to a restaurant that failed to provide him the table he wanted. The accusation against Mr Mikeladze comes at a complicated time for worker-management relations in Georgia. With economic conditions worsening, Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili has been talking up the need for harmony.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 271, published on March 11 2016)