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Kazakh court sentences former head of EXPO-2017

JUNE 8/9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Kazakhstan sentenced Talgat Yermegiyayev, the former head of the Astana EXPO-2017, and Kazhymurat Usenov, one of its former directors, to 14 and 2 years in jail for corruption. They are the two most prominent figures in a trial of 23 officials accused of stealing from the state budget. Yermegiyayev was found guilty of having embezzled 10.2b tenge ($31m).

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Georgia expresses eagerness to join NATO

JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — At a conference in Washington, Georgian defence minister Tinatin Khidasheli said that NATO should be doing more to secure Georgia as a member of the Western military alliance. She said that by approving Georgia’s NATO membership, the group would be sending a message to Russia that it can’t be intimidated. Georgia is desperate to join NATO but some members are wary of upsetting Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Kazakh Minister says Karachaganak talks are friendly

ALMATY, JUNE 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s energy minister Kanat Bozumbayev denied that the government was using multi-billion dollar fines against the consortium operating the Karachaganak gas and condensate field to negotiate more favourable terms to a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) drawn up in 1997.

Mr Bozumbayev’s comment contradicts statements by shareholders in Karachaganak. Russian oil company Lukoil said in its Q1 report that Kazakhstan’s total claims for the renegotiation of the Karachaganak contract have grown to $1.8b, up from $1.6b it had highlighted in April.

At a press conference in Astana, Mr Bozumbayev tried to shrug off the allegations.

“The reason I do not comment on these issues is that my words are then taken out of context and I read that Kazakhstan wants to sue,” media quoted him as saying. “Kazakhstan is holding friendly negotiations with the shareholders of the Karachaganak project.”

Mr Bozumbayev’s comments are the most clear to date that the Kazakh government is holding direct talks with the Karachaganak partners on a new PSA deal.

Essentially, the Kazakh government wants a greater share of the profits from Karachaganak. Last week, the FT reported that the Kazakh government had rejected a $300m deal to settle the dispute.

The consortium is Eni (29.25%), BG (29.25%), Chevron (18%), Lukoil (13.5%) and Kazmunaigas (10%).

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Germany invests on Uzbek bank

JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — ALWA, a German plastics manufacturer, bought a 15% stake in Orient Finance Bank, an Uzbekistan-based lender, for 9.3b sum ($3.2m), news agency Trend reported. The bank was able to sell the stake by increasing its capitalisation. This is in line with the government policy of selling off stakes in state-owned or state-participated assets.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Technopark costs in Kazakhstan rise

JUNE 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh government said it will have to recalculate costs for the construction of a petrochemical technopark in a Special Economic Zone near Atyrau, due to the depreciation of the local currency. Nurlan Rakhmetov, managing director at Samruk-Kazyna, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, said costs will rise. As of June 1, the local consortium building the technopark has received 40.7b tenge ($120m) from the state budget.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Central Banks in Kazakhstan and Georgia fight deflationary pressures

ALMATY, JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Currencies across the Central Asia and South Caucasus region have stabilised this year after losing 30% to 50% of their value in 2015 thanks, in part, to record high interest rates but governments are now having to deal with deflation.

As well as raising interest rates to their highest level since the Global Economic Crisis of 2008/9, Central Banks bought heavily to defend their currencies. The Kazakh Central Bank said it bought $3.7b in Jan.-May 2016 and in Georgia, the Central Bank intervened twelve times in just two months, although on a smaller scale.

And both Central Banks have now started unwinding high interest rates, hoping to spark economic activity.

Earlier this year the Kazakh Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 15% from 17%. Georgia’s Central Bank cut its interest rate to 7.5% from 8% and promised further cuts. New data from Georgia’s statistics agency highlighted the challenge. It said that prices in May dropped by 0.4%, the third consecutive month of falling prices. Year-on-year inflation in May measured 2.1%, down from a high of 6.3% in November.

And this scenario is playing out across the region.

Last month Armenia’s Central Bank said that year-on-year inflation measured minus 1.9% and immediately cut interest rates by 0.5% to 7.75%.

But Alex Nice, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said that the region’s weak banking systems and high levels of dollarisation means that there is little Central Banks can do to impact economic activity.

“The exchange rate is a more powerful lever for managing prices in the economy [than the official interest rate],” he said.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Russia’s Gazprom to invest in Kyrgyzstan

JUNE 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian PM Dmitri Medvedev said that state-owned gas company Gazprom will invest around $1.5b in Kyrgyzstan’s energy infrastructure and that it will cancel export duty on oil and oil products. Mr Medvedev made the statement while in Bishkek on an official visit. Oil and petroleum products make up 51.9% of Kyrgyz imports from Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Hyundai sells buses to Turkmenistan

JUNE 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — South Korean automaker Hyundai said it has sold 500 Aero City buses to Turkmenistan, for $66m. Hyundai has already sold 700 buses to Turkmenistan over the past seven years. The new buses will mostly service the capital, Ashgabat, during the Asian Indoors Games in 2017.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

EU and UN condemn Tajikistan on opposition crackdown

JUNE 3/7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Union and the United Nations both condemned the harsh sentencing of former top members of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan last week. “The court proceedings were not transparent and violated the rights of the accused to a fair trial,” the EU statement said. “The harsh sentencing reflects the steady increase of restrictions on freedom of expression in Tajikistan,” said David Kaye, UN Special Rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)

Azerbaijan’s energy company profits in Romania

JUNE 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company SOCAR said its Romanian subsidiary SOCAR Petroleum made a profit in 2015 for the first time since 2011 despite a fall in revenues. SOCAR Petroleum owns several filling stations across Romania. Low oil prices reduced total revenue at SOCAR Petroleum but also gave it a higher profit margin on sales.

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(News report from Issue No. 284, published on June 10 2016)