JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brexit, Britain’s vote to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23, pushed down stock markets, commodities and currencies worldwide, including in South Caucasus and Central Asia where politicians and business leaders warned of problems ahead.
Kazakhstan was hit by both currency instability and the sudden drop in oil prices, which fell below the $50/barrel threshold it had recovered to earlier this year after the rout of 2014 and 2015.
Uzakbai Karabalin, Kazakhstan’s former oil minister and now deputy chairman of the oil and gas lobby group KAZENERGY, said the government will have to revise down the baseline for oil prices in the national budget this year.
“[Brexit] has already affected oil prices,” he said. “The first response was a decline. Now the economic base price is $50/barrel.”
Previously, the government had said the baseline for this year could have grown to $60/barrel, so a drop to $50/barrel is a pessimistic assessment of the impact of Brexit.
Georgia, less impacted by low oil prices, felt the Brexit effect on its currency, the lari. The lari has fallen by 4.5% since June 23 and Dimitry Kumsishvili, the economy minister, blamed the Brexit result.
“This is most likely a one-off that is directly connected to the UK’s decision to quit the European Union. Of course, this immediately affects our currency,” Mr Kumsishvili said.
He warned that the impact of Brexit had only just started to feed through into the world’s economy and that more economic shocks in the region were likely.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)